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GFS Fantasy storm a plenty

wxbrad

By wxbrad,
in Southeastern States

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Rankin5150

Rankin5150

Posted
Posted

An El Nino year is usually normal or slightly above normal here. I do okay in CAD's rains, usually sometimes not, thanks to GA convection robbery lately. But we used to do just fine, regardless of enso. The Summers are whats driving down rain totals here now, regardless of enso. Until the combo of higher than normal heights and surface nw flow ends, it will continue. Not sure why the winds are now nw across the Apps most of the Summer, but it didn't used to be until around 1999, and now almost every Summer they are, and that made the world of difference locally. Maybe that flow will revert back to normal sw flow starting next Summer, I have no idea.

Good ob on the winds Robert. I learn something new from you everyday Bro!! Hope your Thanksgiving was awesome!! :snowman:

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

Good ob on the winds Robert. I learn something new from you everyday Bro!! Hope your Thanksgiving was awesome!! :snowman:

thanks. Speaking of the GFS fantasy, it continues on. Seems like each run has a southeast snowstorm/deep south system in its longer range. Yesterday's HPC discussion pretty much highlights things through 14 days and toward the end of that the flow is supposed to have changed, become suppressed enough, with cold air pressing down to around I-40 atleast, maybe deeper, with a system from the Great Basin heading east under the vortex pressing down from Canada. Maybe eventually what the GFS and some degree now Euro, will come to pass. Or it could be just another fantasy. With all the cold air now entrenched in Canada, if we could ever really get the PNA ridge out west, and a southern storm track with teh strong -NAO, we would be in business. But so far its a waiting game. I would still think the overall idea of what the GFS is telling us eventually will arrive, the idea of cold and stormy. Don't know if cold enough to snow in the Southeast, but could be.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

An El Nino year is usually normal or slightly above normal here. I do okay in CAD's rains, usually sometimes not, thanks to GA convection robbery lately. But we used to do just fine, regardless of enso. The Summers are whats driving down rain totals here now, regardless of enso. Until the combo of higher than normal heights and surface nw flow ends, it will continue. Not sure why the winds are now nw across the Apps most of the Summer, but it didn't used to be until around 1999, and now almost every Summer they are, and that made the world of difference locally. Maybe that flow will revert back to normal sw flow starting next Summer, I have no idea.

Well, here's to cool, wet summers :) Hope the models are generally right in that they want to bring in some moisture next week, and have for a while now. T

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

GFS has not shown a major "fantasy' storm for at least a few runs. But i'm still excited about our chances of see some wintery precip in the next few weeks. The overall pattern should provide some really cold air to over-spread the SE after next weekend. All the models are performing really bad. Reading the GFS (straight) the cold would overwelm a good percentage of the country and push most storm systems way south. But I'm not sold that the cold will be that extensive. So we could still be look at a surprise storm that pops up on the models at the day 6/7/8 mark (in the future). Also if the cold is that extensive, we could be looking at upper low (cutters) that actually move to our south ( not through lakes / mid atlantic). ****And if anything we'll have some cold air to to celebrate the season (not 60s & 70s).

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

The board has been a little slow so far. I think we're going to see things starting to pick up bext week if the GFS continues to show the snow.

Where exactly is the GFS showing snow? All I see is the FROPA on Tues-Wed. with a low topped severe chance as it crosses the region. GFS is often too agressive with the cold air making it over the mountains because of its limited handle on the terrain etc. The cold air would be chasing the moisture in this case (a common theme in central NC). This time I think as of now it would lag well behind the last drops of rain.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

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Where exactly is the GFS showing snow? All I see is the FROPA on Tues-Wed. with a low topped severe chance as it crosses the region. GFS is often too agressive with the cold air making it over the mountains because of its limited handle on the terrain etc. The cold air would be chasing the moisture in this case (a common theme in central NC). This time I think as of now it would lag well behind the last drops of rain.

I don't see it either, however I did notice what looks to be a potential slgt risk for portions of the carolinas on Wed, but given the timing, if modeled correctly, lack of daytime heating would be lacking as it comes through early on Wed. Very nice trough though, goes negative tilt around hr 90 on the 12z Global, and just prior to it getting in here. 850's warm to >12C ahead of the front in the warm sector. Looking at the svr plots on Allan's site, high shear - almost no cape, and we know how that has gone this year.

gfs_500_096s.gif

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eyewall

eyewall

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I don't see it either, however I did notice what looks to be a potential slgt risk for portions of the carolinas on Wed, but given the timing, if modeled correctly, lack of daytime heating would be lacking as it comes through early on Wed. Very nice trough though, goes negative tilt around hr 90 on the 12z Global, and just prior to it getting in here. 850's warm to >12C ahead of the front in the warm sector. Looking at the svr plots on Allan's site, high shear - almost no cape, and we know how that has gone this year.

gfs_500_096s.gif

Yeah it would certainly be a classic NC low CAPE high shear scenario and the negative tilt is promising. Any hope for chasing would be if it the severe actually held off until about sunrise on Wed. As it stands now all indications are a nocturnal event.

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Cheeznado

Cheeznado

Posted
Posted

Euro has a dynamite setup day 10. Too bad it's soo far away. Arctic HP over the plains sliding in with a strong STJ wave coming eastward. Something to watch at least.

Euro ensembles have a tremendous spread at 240- impossible to make a call right now except the -NAO probably assures some cold air.

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Cyclonicjunkie

Cyclonicjunkie

Posted
Posted

Why? i.e. what is your thinking as to why the setup holds potential, synoptically speaking... :)

I was just agreeing with that poster on the shift east, but I will bite.

IMO the brunt of the cold air will hang out just to the west and northwest of the SE region through about December 6, then slowly filter east and south into the region after that. The significant wintry threat with the system moving east out of the southern plains appears most likely IMO for areas along and north of I-40.:arrowhead:

There's a nice signal for a pretty strong HPS to drop down out of Canada, but what has been missing is a 50/50 low that stays around for a while but we will see. Right now it's suppresion city due to the GFS overdoing cold air in the east. :scooter:

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jburns

jburns

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Yeah it would certainly be a classic NC low CAPE high shear scenario and the negative tilt is promising. Any hope for chasing would be if it the severe actually held off until about sunrise on Wed. As it stands now all indications are a nocturnal event.

Interesting. I believe all of Bricks snowstorm fantasies are nocturnal events as well. :devilsmiley:

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Bozart

Bozart

Posted
Posted

New fantasy- 00Z GFS has snow across AL/GA and parts of the Carolinas days 10-11....:devilsmiley:

How do you figure? Wait, let me guess: the 0c line at 850. Am I right?

If I had $100 for every snowstorm the 850 0c line gave me when the 0c surface line said "no," I'd be on Welfare. Which I ain't.

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Jon

Jon

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Posted

How do you figure? Wait, let me guess: the 0c line at 850. Am I right?

If I had $100 for every snowstorm the 850 0c line gave me when the 0c surface line said "no," I'd be on Welfare. Which I ain't.

Yes the 0c line is way sounth, I think the -10c line is under or on the carolinas for this run. 252 hours is better than 300 right?.............right???:arrowhead:

2mcko.jpg

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Bozart

Bozart

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Yes the 0c line is way sounth, I think the -10c line is under or on the carolinas for this run. 252 hours is better than 300 right?.............right???:arrowhead:

It still looks to me like cold air spilling in behind the precip shield and chasing the moisture out, as per usual. But there are times I'd love to be wrong, and this is one of those times.

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Cheeznado

Cheeznado

Posted
Posted

It still looks to me like cold air spilling in behind the precip shield and chasing the moisture out, as per usual. But there are times I'd love to be wrong, and this is one of those times.

Did not say necessarily accumulating snow, but if that verified it would snow for sure. However....

I only posted that GFS forecast for laughs because it is probably completely bogus- just the first in many fantasy model snows that will not occur.

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

And now for todays 00z gfs fantasy.

fz4vfr.gif

Honestly though, before the model truncates, there is an interesting setup at 180hrs at 500mb... a nice displaced 50/50 low with a mega block to its north... if we can intensify the 50/50 low just a little bit more, this will force the trough in the central US to move south and produce a more wintry senerio for folks in the south. Its really not that far off what the 00z euro was showing last night, except for a weaker 50/50 low.

2q2hjbp.gif

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