Guest Noreaster Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Then don't read this thread. Im pretty sure the topic reads day 7 and beyond discussion... it didn't come off right, but the point was we cannot be certain anything is here to stay. Tons of variability in the pattern. Appologies for coming across in a negative way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 it didn't come off right, but the point was we cannot be certain anything is here to stay. Tons of variability in the pattern. Appologies for coming across in a negative way. Ahhh ok, didn't mean to get mean, i took it as a negative comment. Yea i totally agree, there is tons of a variability whenever you're dealing with a block that strong, things are going to get messed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 That much SE Ridge, and no more, is a good thing in the heart of winter. thats very true, so the storms don't get squashed, but that also leads to sw flow events right? Your area has a little more flexibility, do to your more northerly location, down in philly area its never a good thing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 i wonder if anyone has this number, how low did the nao get last yr with that block? The current forecast has about -2.5 thats pretty impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 i wonder if anyone has this number, how low did the nao get last yr with that block? The current forecast has about -2.5 thats pretty impressive... Nice seeing the PNA finally come back up towards positive territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 AO is also tumbling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 18z Gfs has a quite a front move through next week right before thanksgiving. Pretty impressive pattern on the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Kramer Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 18z Gfs has a quite a front move through next week right before thanksgiving. Pretty impressive pattern on the op run. Just got a look. Very interesting. The model is "seeing" a lot of short waves, but its going to have trouble till it has better resolution and a better fix on the NAO to know whats really going to happen. Clearly though the GFS is favoring the block to get onto and west of greenland which is good. Will the -PNA be too powerful or will the block be enough? One thing is for sure, do not look for anything to tighten up and bite into a big storm, pattern does not support that at all. A series of over running or SWFlow events as some like to call them? sure, the difference this year to years in the past, the strong block, so the local area could stay all white or at least all frozen, instead of the dreaded 1 inch of snow then 1 inch of rain. To be continued...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest PDIIREDUX Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 AO is also tumbling... yeah you can see that nicely on the 500 mb maps on ewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 GFS wants to send the PV down to near Winnipeg while the Euro says "not so fast" by Day 10...Euro SE ridge still present...GFS is a bit suppressed with the ridging but it flexes some in the mid/long range (not as much as Euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 0z euro has totally abandoned the cold air coming into the area. through day 10 all the cold air is locked up north in canada, east based -nao, the pacific jet and se ridge are roaring across the lower 48. Its going to be interesting to see which model is correct. The gfs continues to show arctic air pouring in, while the euro continues to delay and negate any cold air except out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 i wonder if the euro is off its rocker? ggem, is in the same boat as the gfs with the arctic assault http://www.stanford.edu/~tenhoeve/weather/00zPrecipGLB.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 i wonder if the euro is off its rocker? ggem, is in the same boat as the gfs with the arctic assault http://www.stanford....0zPrecipGLB.htm Yeah Tom the euro ensembles where total diff then the op run....brings cold in the east after tday, with snow chances. Its one run of the euro...at 12z yesetrday it look great for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 0z euro has totally abandoned the cold air coming into the area. through day 10 all the cold air is locked up north in canada, east based -nao, the pacific jet and se ridge are roaring across the lower 48. Its going to be interesting to see which model is correct. The gfs continues to show arctic air pouring in, while the euro continues to delay and negate any cold air except out west. This product is pretty good at settling discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 0z euro has totally abandoned the cold air coming into the area. through day 10 all the cold air is locked up north in canada, east based -nao, the pacific jet and se ridge are roaring across the lower 48. Its going to be interesting to see which model is correct. The gfs continues to show arctic air pouring in, while the euro continues to delay and negate any cold air except out west. 6z GFS is also warm now. Like the euro, it now delays any cold air until well after day 9-10. Not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 6z GFS is also warm now. Like the euro, it now delays any cold air until well after day 9-10. Not looking good. I wouldn't worry too much about the 6z GFS and 1 run of the Euro when its ensemble members completely disagreed with it. If there are a few more model runs consecutively showing this then I would think the cold maybe delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 6z GFS is also warm now. Like the euro, it now delays any cold air until well after day 9-10. Not looking good. Euro Ensembles are colder than the op. Check out the NAO on the Euro Ensemble mean http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I wouldn't worry too much about the 6z GFS and 1 run of the Euro when its ensemble members completely disagreed with it. If there are a few more model runs consecutively showing this then I would think the cold maybe delayed. True. I definetely think the cold air eventually gets in here. We just have to see if its a bit delayed or if its able to pour in around Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Euro Ensembles are colder than the op. Check out the NAO on the Euro Ensemble mean http://raleighwx.ame...s/ecmwfens.html Yeah. I saw it. Incredible -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Those euro ens are pretty encouraging to see. Hopefully those come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I'm not too concerned about the cold not getting in here. The way it comes in and the time frame it does may be fluctuating, but if the EPO switches and the PNA rises the way many models are indicating then the graphic representation will switch in our favor. Plus remember, when we move into December, we don't need a fantastic Pacific to keep us cold if we have a good -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Yeah. I saw it. Incredible -NAO. The GFS is also signaling an incredible west based -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 That NAO is too far East based on the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Joe Bastardi is going nuts.... If I were a MET, I would be just like JB only probably worse, much much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 This product is pretty good at settling discussions. Nice for now / December . I guess in January all the red will be south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Happy Turkey Day weekend everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 after tomorrow NYC temperatures should be running about average for November...Now does it get cold enough for the month to end up below average?...So far the coldest temp this season is 36...It would be the warmest on record if it stands up...I think it won't and by months end we should see below freezing readings for a few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Kramer Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Right now GFS, its ensembles, and Euro ensembles all insist on the NAO getting west based just enough to keep us on the cold/frozen side of this Nina equation. Interesting to see the GFS show the NAO negative both east and west. Its quite expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Happy Turkey Day weekend everyone. Don't forget, there was a time when the GFS was indicating that EXACT setup for 11/17 and then for 11/23 and look where the trough IS/WILL ultimately wind up for those two dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 12z euro at day 10 is better than 0z. Brings some cold air in, but no where near to the level as the gfs does. the t giving storm or weekend threat on the euro is a lake cutter, cold air follows behind. Euro Has an east and semi west based nao. Se ridge is still around but is squashed a little. Also has a GOA low, which to me means what ever cold that comes east will be pretty transient. The pna looks neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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