ioke09 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I'd say our next shot is 264/276. Theres some decent blocking w a 50/50 in place Here we go again, let's hope so. Didn't this event next Sunday-Monday look too perfect on the EURO model to start with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I'd say our next shot is 264/276. Theres some decent blocking w a 50/50 in place Yeah def...I'd actually start watching a bit earlier around Day 8 as there's a really strong +PNA with some northern stream energy coming down the backside....definitely have got a 50/50 low and massive NAO but the GFS sort of shears it as it comes into Minnesota. Looks like it would be a Miller B threat, followed by some overrunning threats in the longer range towards the Holidays? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 the block on the euro may make this past one look like a terd. My euro maps have alaska, canada and greenland looking like christmas lights with the high hgts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Answer to this is easy: the Gulf Stream keeps London in a Seattle-type state of ocean-influenced temps (with the warm waters of the stream having a profound effect), overcast skies, and moderate precipitation. Yeah, thats what I figured lol-- when you have a large body of water just to your west, you are usually screwed, because you have more of a maritime climate (because weather usually moves west to east.) With a whole continent to our west, we are colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Looking at 5 days out ..there still is not really that much harmony in the models. I am not sure which one has been performing better ..but i found this kind of interesting.. UKMET 120 ECM 120 GGEM 120 Finally GFS 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Just take a look at the overall pattern, and the setup of the northern/southern streams. In a pattern where there's no or transient blocking over Greenland and no 50-50 feature, it's hard right off the bat to have an all or mostly snowstorm in the coastal plain this time of year due just to water temperatures, and the tendency of storms to cut north once they get to our longitude. Storms tend to strengthen once they arrive east of the Miss. River and gain access to heat/H20 from the Gulf and Atlantic, and then try to cut north as they strengthen. You usually need some kind of blocking mechanism north of us to keep a storm southeast of us anyway. Secondly, during a Nina, the northern stream is dominant, meaning there are many more clippers than usual and storms that cut north than usual due to a pattern that favors a trough over the west/Midwest and ridging over the Southeast. The northern stream is also more energetic, making it even easier for storms to sharpen in the flow and cut north. That makes it even more essential that the cold air around here is locked into place to possibly force the storm to transfer to the coast, or force a southerly path. During strong Ninas like this, without a favorable pattern northeast of us to block up the fast northern stream-dominated storminess, it's very unlikely that we get a snow event near the coast. That's why it looks very likely to be rain or almost all rain near the coast this time. The only way I see that changing is if the clipper that comes before it strengthens and cuts off, forcing the next storm to move around to its south, or the Greenland blocking somehow stays in place. The good thing is, this storm for Sunday/Mon looks like it might be strong enough to force another block to develop, setting up a chance down the road. But without that in place this winter, it's likely rain for us right off the bat. Ninas favor the Lake effect snowbelts and the Midwest for a reason. This is why Im wondering why everyone is talking about a amazingly negative nao and such strong blocking like we had last year-- and yet storms are still cutting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 the ukie someone said develops a secondary that goes over phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Looking at 5 days out ..there still is not really that much harmony in the models. I am not sure which one has been performing better ..but i found this kind of interesting.. UKMET 120 ECM 120 GGEM 120 Finally GFS 120 One thing they pretty much all agree on is the overall 500mb pattern. Definitely an east based -NAO, which is why this storm is NOT going to be an east coast snowstorm. Afterwards the pattern looks more promising but remember we are fighting a La Nina, and if it doesn't start to weaken climatology is going to be pretty hard to beat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 This is why Im wondering why everyone is talking about a amazingly negative nao and such strong blocking like we had last year-- and yet storms are still cutting? well right now, the nao is no where near what it was right now at this present time, its been rising since its earlier bottoms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 well right now, the nao is no where near what it was right now at this present time, its been rising since its earlier bottoms And I think there are projections it will sink again sometime next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 the ukie someone said develops a secondary that goes over phl Last panel.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 And I think there are projections it will sink again sometime next week. yea, trust me, if the euro and gfs blocking come to fruit good lord ppl may be really pissed or really happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Last panel.... yea its doing the same thing the gfs did at 0z, its phasing the pv later or not as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 yea its doing the same thing the gfs did at 0z, its phasing the pv later or not as much With as much as the ECM has been bouncing around ..do you think that kind of might raise a red flag to the ECM? I have heard that the UK is like the ECM little brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The 00Z UKMET is probably too far east, the 00Z ECMWF is probably too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 With as much as the ECM has been bouncing around ..do you think that kind of might raise a red flag to the ECM? I have heard that the UK is like the ECM little brother. im not sure honestly, its the furthest west out of all the guidance....something has to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 yoinks, if you stare at it long enough, kind of looks like two eyes, the nose in the middle and a unibraw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 00Z KMA Hour 144, as always presented as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 i love how everything is upside down on the KMA lol maybe cus its from the other side of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Clearly, the KMA will lead the way here. I expect the Euro, GFS and Ukie to come around to the KMA's solution by 12z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 im not sure honestly, its the furthest west out of all the guidance....something has to give. Hmm Wonder if this gives some credence to the UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The means and the operational are far apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Just curious if anyone has ever seen the ECM OP this far away from its ensemble means before? Especially at this time range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ioke09 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 This seems to support the coastal runner ideal more does it not? Perhaps the trend is further East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 According to the 00Z GFS NYC has a legit chance at below 0 readings behind this storm...but of course we know even if its 850s aren't 5 degrees too cold...the wind will either be too northwesterly as opposed to northerly causing a downslope component or there will be too many clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Below zero readings will eventually again be recorded at NYC stations..those who contend they are a thing of the past are mistaken.. Looks like 6z model runs have a stronger -nao and a supressed storm track...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 According to the 00Z GFS NYC has a legit chance at below 0 readings behind this storm...but of course we know even if its 850s aren't 5 degrees too cold...the wind will either be too northwesterly as opposed to northerly causing a downslope component or there will be too many clouds. Unless the weekend storm tracks differently NYC won't hit zero without snow cover, Nick Stefano told me that Sussex County NJ even has a hard time getting below zero without snow cover in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Looks like 6z model runs have a stronger -nao and a supressed storm track...... I feel better already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Cold bores me so much, lol. I am here for snow, not cold. If there is no snow, give me a blowtorch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Cold bores me so much, lol. I am here for snow, not cold. If there is no snow, give me a blowtorch. I agree completely. Cold sucks without snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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