blazess556 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Wednesday night is going to be the coldest night of the year for most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Wednesday night is going to be the coldest night of the year for most places. Coldest night of the year already occurred. Easy to forget that last January was still this year. I believe it got down to 14 in NYC on Jan 30, it was in the teens for a stretch of days. That being said, it will be interesting to see if this winter season's minimum will be lower or higher than last seasons. Won't be lower on Wednesday, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 What a terrific signal on the long range GFS global ensembles. The blocking and -NAO showing no signs of breaking down--really awesome depiction in that regard. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/f372.gif Terrific for an Ohio Valley storm track - strong east based -NAO does not usually support an east coast storm track so we end up on the warm side of the storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Terrific for an Ohio Valley storm track - strong east based -NAO does not usually support an east coast storm track so we end up on the warm side of the storm.... Why are you saying that this is east based? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Why are you saying that this is east based? you check the charts out for the storm period ? The NAO is progged to be strong -NAO east plus no 50/50 low..........GFS is wrong - Euro has the right idea.... pus the MJO is going into 4/5 zone another ohio valley fav..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 you check the charts out for the storm period ? The NAO is progged to be strong -NAO east plus no 50/50 low..........GFS is wrong - Euro has the right idea.... I haven't looked at every single piece of guidance out, I was merely commenting on the GFS Ensembles that earthlight posted vs. your east based NAO comment. Whether it is right nor not is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 For what it's worth, the 6z GFS looks a lot like the GGEM.. front end snow, a little too warm for snow, and then some more snow. A step back in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Yeah it's colder and further east with the low than the 00z...it actually occludes near NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Looks like a snowstorm for most of eastern and central PA with exception of extreme SE...storm moves from Delmarva Penninsula to NYC very slowly... Yep...Poconos do really well in this storm...Allentown right on the line if the 6z were taken verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Looks like a snowstorm for most of eastern and central PA with exception of extreme SE...storm moves from Delmarva Penninsula to NYC very slowly... The key to the track of this Dec 12 - 13 system is where the first clipper stalls out in the block and how strong it becomes - to early to speculate ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The 6z and 18z runs have a historical SE bias, aside from the SE bias that the 12z and 00z runs already have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The 6z and 18z runs have a historical SE bias, aside from the SE bias that the 12z and 00z runs already have. Not according to Henry - Big Daddy for the Big Cities - track through the lower ohio valley to the VA capes - explodes and comes up the coast He says the Euro is wrong and GFS the way to go. Any Takers ??? http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/42602/video-is-ready-a-look-at-the-lake-snows-to-big-daddy.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The 6z and 18z runs have a historical SE bias, aside from the SE bias that the 12z and 00z runs already have. Not really. From experience, I have noticed that the 18Z DOES have a historical SE bias, but from what I've noticed, the 06Z for whatever reason, often has a N & W bias, where the 00Z and 12Z are *USUALLY* but not always more accurate.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Not according to Henry - Big Daddy for the Big Cities - track through the lower ohio valley to the VA capes - explodes and comes up the coast He says the Euro is wrong and GFS the way to go. Any Takers ??? http://www.accuweath...o-big-daddy.asp Sounds like the HPC. It sounds like they are also riding the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Sounds like the HPC. It sounds like they are also riding the GFS. HPC is favoring a more amplified solution with the track cutting west of the big cities http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html -- discussion http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbgpre.gif --maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 0z GGEM Ensembles have some nice hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 HPC is favoring a more amplified solution with the track cutting west of the big cities http://www.hpc.ncep....epd/preepd.html -- discussion http://www.hpc.ncep....fcst_wbgpre.gif --maps Right now, something close to the 6Z GFS would probably make sense. However, that could change, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 AO is forecasted to plunge to -6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 AO is forecasted to plunge to -6 which, if comes to fruition, would actually give us a shot at a fully occluded storm retrograding WWD into the NYC metro area... lol... sound familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 AO is forecasted to plunge to -6 Pardon my ignorance, but what does that represent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Pardon my ignorance, but what does that represent? NAO. It is forecasted to go very negative. When something like that happens, you can have bizarre retrograding storm scenarios such as the one the 0z Euro showed last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 NAO. It is forecasted to go very negative. When something like that happens, you can have bizarre retrograding storm scenarios such as the one the 0z Euro showed last night. Ah, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 NAO. It is forecasted to go very negative. When something like that happens, you can have bizarre retrograding storm scenarios such as the one the 0z Euro showed last night. The NAO isn't forecasted to go very negative. The AO is. Also, the retrogading storm on the Euro looks like February 25-26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The NAO isn't forecasted to go very negative. The AO is. Also, the retrogading storm on the Euro looks like February 25-26. Well, if the 0z EURO has its way... And http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/00zNAOcomparison.html the 0z members don't show 5 SD below, but closer to 4.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 NAO. It is forecasted to go very negative. When something like that happens, you can have bizarre retrograding storm scenarios such as the one the 0z Euro showed last night. Actually, that was an AO (Arctic Oscillation) chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Well, if the 0z EURO has its way... And http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/00zNAOcomparison.html the 0z members don't show 5 SD below, but closer to 4.. Nothing would be surprising this year - we have had a few extreme events already........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The NAO isn't forecasted to go very negative. The AO is. Also, the retrogading storm on the Euro looks like February 25-26. Actually, that was an AO (Arctic Oscillation) chart. Doh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Not really. From experience, I have noticed that the 18Z DOES have a historical SE bias, but from what I've noticed, the 06Z for whatever reason, often has a N & W bias, where the 00Z and 12Z are *USUALLY* but not always more accurate.. Of late the 12z gfs model run has been the most accurate of the gfs model runs at the time frame we are looking at (day 5-6). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The MJO emerging in the warm phases maybe part of reason the -nao is relaxing or heading east late this week, not entirely sure if that can occur that quickly. As far as the epo being the driver of change, I usually give it 5 to 7 days to be an instrument of "change", which would still be mid December about the same the -nao looks like its going to flex its muscle again. We'll see who wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Thanks for that, shadow. IIRC, last winter we saw the -NAO progged to erode in the 90-120 frames virtually all season long. That may be a weenie wish this year given the PAC. Still, it is worth noting. The MJO emerging in the warm phases maybe is reason the -nao is relaxing or heading east late this week, not entirely sure if that can occur that quickly. As far as the epo being the driver of change, I usually give it 5 to 7 days to be an instrument of "change", which would still be mid December about the same the -nao looks like its going to flex its muscle again. We'll see who wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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