Dsnowx53 Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 I like the Euro-ensemble look, but I'm very skeptical of its verification. This pattern would never be good unless we actually got a good -NAO, which is not easy to obtain, even all else being equal, let-alone this pattern. Congrats, New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 I like the Euro-ensemble look, but I'm very skeptical of its verification. This pattern would never be good unless we actually got a good -NAO, which is not easy to obtain, even all else being equal, let-alone this pattern. Congrats, New England. We knew this would be the case month's ago. That being said, can we salvage some good snows with a west based NAO? We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 We knew this would be the case month's ago. That being said, can we salvage some good snows with a west based NAO? We will see. The NAO looks to be "neutral" based, IMO. I'm still optimistic that we'll have things to TRACK, which is always fun, but I think we're going to be on the short-end of the stick on a lot of these. IIRC, in December of 08, we had a GREAT Pacific, and a horrible Atlantic, and still didn't do that great, despite the fact that the Pacific is more important than the Atlantic early in the season. What we need to hope for is a GREAT Atlantic, and semi-okay Pacific...that may put us in a pretty good spot. We need to keep the cross-polar flow established, and establish a good longwave pattern before the GOA low kind of tries to come back...that way the -NAO will at least have some sort of an influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 The 0z Euro has a much more relaxed Pacific than the 12z Euro, and has a much colder look. The -NAO is much more east-based, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 The 0z Euro has a much more relaxed Pacific than the 12z Euro, and has a much colder look. The -NAO is much more east-based, though. I don't care how it happens as long as cold air gets in here. Latest GFS looks better the last couple runs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest PDIIREDUX Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 I like the Euro-ensemble look, but I'm very skeptical of its verification. This pattern would never be good unless we actually got a good -NAO, which is not easy to obtain, even all else being equal, let-alone this pattern. Congrats, New England. Really? Already, its not even the end of November and we are giving up?. Sure, they would be colder, but they need something to close off and bomb to give them any kind of real storm, and in this FAST gradient type pattern, nothing is gonna close off at 500. Since the STJ is dorman, we are left with fast flow northern impulses that have no moisture source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 15, 2010 Author Share Posted November 15, 2010 It looks to me that we'll get some decent cold air here from Black Friday through the weekend after Thanksgiving as the longwave trough slides eastward and blocking over Greenland maintains itself. After that, obviously things get muddied, but the MJO should be in P4-P5, which would set up a +EPO pattern. I'd guess that means at to above normal temps here in the first week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest PDIIREDUX Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 It looks to me that we'll get some decent cold air here from Black Friday through the weekend after Thanksgiving as the longwave trough slides eastward and blocking over Greenland maintains itself. After that, obviously things get muddied, but the MJO should be in P4-P5, which would set up a +EPO pattern. I'd guess that means at to above normal temps here in the first week of December. however PNA looks to switch + by then. Its going to be quite a battle, which is why this year probably doesn't fit any previous analogues because we have never had a strong nino to strong nina switch like this with the current atmospheric setup. Its a riddle wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a puzzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Really? Already, its not even the end of November and we are giving up?. Sure, they would be colder, but they need something to close off and bomb to give them any kind of real storm, and in this FAST gradient type pattern, nothing is gonna close off at 500. Since the STJ is dorman, we are left with fast flow northern impulses that have no moisture source. Nobody is giving up. The gradient type pattern will never get a chance to develop if the Aleutian ridge builds the way it is currently modeled, and the NAO is east based. This will create more room for the southeast ridge to develop. The only gradient pattern that will develop in that setup will be from the Rockies to the Great Lakes. I do think we finally break through to some cold by the start of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 PV looks to set up in Alberta as the PNA tanks, SE ridge will briefly set up. But after that looks like the PV meanders eastward, the pacific gets better as some higher heights try to build in in BC as the NAO remains negative, pattern looks real good around thanksgiving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest PDIIREDUX Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Nobody is giving up. The gradient type pattern will never get a chance to develop if the Aleutian ridge builds the way it is currently modeled, and the NAO is east based. This will create more room for the southeast ridge to develop. The only gradient pattern that will develop in that setup will be from the Rockies to the Great Lakes. I do think we finally break through to some cold by the start of December. Nao looks plenty west based to me in long range. Yes se ridge rules till about hour 180 but the pattern Definately goes west based with some high latitude blocking as well ie -ao. Nyc area will be just fine once we get past the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 12z GFS says maybe some snow for Thanksgiving weekend? Obviously no one should take it seriously but it's fun to see nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 12z GFS says maybe some snow for Thanksgiving weekend? Obviously no one should take it seriously but it's fun to see nonetheless. It actually looks very similar to the 0z Euro. It's a much better-looking gradient pattern--one that could conceivably bring snow into the region. I just hope there will be a mechanism that would help to SUSTAIN such pattern, if we do indeed get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 It actually looks very similar to the 0z Euro. It's a much better-looking gradient pattern--one that could conceivably bring snow into the region. I just hope there will be a mechanism that would help to SUSTAIN such pattern, if we do indeed get it. Yeah, it looks like the pattern gets much better towards the end of the month, with the models hinting at storm around thanksgiving. The key there is the improved pacific pattern, wether or not this will materialize remains to be seen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Yeah, it looks like the pattern gets much better towards the end of the month, with the models hinting at storm around thanksgiving. The key there is the improved pacific pattern, wether or not this will materialize remains to be seen... I want the cold in december and lets have a rockin month.....2 weeks of a okay pattern at the end of november i could care less about.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 however PNA looks to switch + by then. Its going to be quite a battle, which is why this year probably doesn't fit any previous analogues because we have never had a strong nino to strong nina switch like this with the current atmospheric setup. Its a riddle wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a puzzle. 72-73 (which was stronger than last season's nino) to 73-74 was also strong to strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 It looks to me that we'll get some decent cold air here from Black Friday through the weekend after Thanksgiving as the longwave trough slides eastward and blocking over Greenland maintains itself. After that, obviously things get muddied, but the MJO should be in P4-P5, which would set up a +EPO pattern. I'd guess that means at to above normal temps here in the first week of December. Meanwhile we're going to have our 14th consecutive month of the NAO averaging negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 15, 2010 Author Share Posted November 15, 2010 Meanwhile we're going to have our 14th consecutive month of the NAO averaging negative. +AMO FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 72-73 (which was stronger than last season's nino) to 73-74 was also strong to strong. Different PDO though Tony? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Meanwhile we're going to have our 14th consecutive month of the NAO averaging negative. What's the record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Meanwhile, yet another day in the 60s lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Meanwhile, yet another day in the 60s lol. How did you get that high? I've been holding at around 54.8 for over an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 72-73 (which was stronger than last season's nino) to 73-74 was also strong to strong. Found an article that references the 73-74 winter season. http://alabamastormtrackers.com/category/outlooks/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Different PDO though Tony? Alex, Still was negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest PDIIREDUX Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Looks like a really nice setup around Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 What's the record? Since 1950 I believe this is the record. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Found an article that references the 73-74 winter season. http://alabamastormt...egory/outlooks/ Can't quibble much with that analog its got the enso swing, the negative pdo; the qbo and nh snow/ice cover could be more of a match, but no winter analog is ever going to fit perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Looks like a really nice setup around Thanksgiving. Nice -NAO and + PNA near the end of November. Pattern is looking sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 15, 2010 Author Share Posted November 15, 2010 It looks to me that we'll get some decent cold air here from Black Friday through the weekend after Thanksgiving as the longwave trough slides eastward and blocking over Greenland maintains itself. After that, obviously things get muddied, but the MJO should be in P4-P5, which would set up a +EPO pattern. I'd guess that means at to above normal temps here in the first week of December. FWIW, Wes thinks the -NAO will dominate the +EPO. I'd trust his opinion way more than mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Can't quibble much with that analog its got the enso swing, the negative pdo; the qbo and nh snow/ice cover could be more of a match, but no winter analog is ever going to fit perfectly. True, As Yogi Berra said " it ain't over till it's over". We'll know in a a few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.