The Winter 2010-11 NYC/PHL Medium Range Thread

[A-L-E-X]

Yes. December 2000.. And the Plains States will certainly be matching December 2000.

Now can we get a 1 to 2 feet snowstorm to match December 2000?

Dec 24-26th?

Meh-- I just hope it doesnt turn out like December 1989 and that winter in general did.

[A-L-E-X]

I'm thinking there is  chance the monthly average could be below 30.0...especially if we get a snowpack at some point.

No snowpack that winter-- everything was supressed well south of us.  And there was that one storm that cut up to our west.  Lots of busted forecasts that winter lol.

[SACRUS]

Yes. December 2000.. And the Plains States will certainly be matching December 2000.

Now can we get a 1 to 2 feet snowstorm to match December 2000?

It was all on the 30th that month. I like 12/8 - 12/12 timeframe. I do think we warmup on/around Christmas to avg the month around 2 or 3 below normal

[SACRUS]

GGEM 216 - 240

[SnowGoose69]

No snowpack that winter-- everything was supressed well south of us. And there was that one storm that cut up to our west. Lots of busted forecasts that winter lol.

88-89 had more busted forecasts, as a matter of fact it was probably the worst period for forecasts of winter storms othan that the period of 99-01...go figure, another stretch of La Ninas...I think Will or Tony posted yesterday that the models are quite poor in the medium and even short range on occasion during La Nina winters....if we hold the -NAO the chance we see a massive reversal as we did in 89-90 is much lower....in 00-01 we saw the reversal as well after December but the NAO tempered it significantly...the NAO averaged positive in Jan/Feb of 01 but it was marginally so and spent periods in the negative range....the AO was very negative too....the February 1990 AO was +3.

[Chris L]

It was all on the 30th that month. I like 12/8 - 12/12 timeframe. I do think we warmup on/around Christmas to avg the month around 2 or 3 below normal

Yeah, Tony. I also think we moderate a bit, but right now, we are going to the icebox to rival 2000.

I think we can get a solid snow event before or around Christmas.

Its 2 to 4 inches, or 7-9 inches or 12 inches or a 20 to 30 inch snowstorm... We'll see.

[SACRUS]

Yeah, Tony. I also think we moderate a bit, but right now, we are going to the icebox to rival 2000.

I think we can get a solid snow event before or around Christmas.

Its 2 to 4 inches, or 7-9 inches or 12 inches or a 20 to 30 inch snowstorm... We'll see.

I'm with ya Chris - the first real prolonged stretch of strong below normals in a while. I think we'll see several or more inches by mid month.

[jrodd321]

no, if it tracks further south you get two benefits. first, you get the clipper snow and the cold with no southerly winds. 2nd that would force the secondary development further south and you would get hit with that like the 0z showed if it tracked the same and dint race out to sea

Ah okay that makes sense now. I got confused for a minute lol. Hopefully it will start tracking more southernly in future runs.

[MJO812]

GGEM 216 - 240

I don't think these maps are for next weekend's storm. At 144, the precip is already in Chicago with a low near Canada.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif

[tombo82685]

Pattern change being shown the last few runs of the GFS back to the western trough at the very end...this probably means it won't actually happen til a good 10 days later so probably a good bet the eastern 1/3rd of the U.S. at least sees a very cold entire month of December....I like my -6F departure guess for Central Park alot right now...perhaps NOT ENOUGH!!!

i dunno i think that trof might be transient, that block over greenland or just south is epic. The middle of the country probably will torch, but i still think with that block the east stays cold

[A-L-E-X]

88-89 had more busted forecasts, as a matter of fact it was probably the worst period for forecasts of winter storms othan that the period of 99-01...go figure, another stretch of La Ninas...I think Will or Tony posted yesterday that the models are quite poor in the medium and even short range on occasion during La Nina winters....if we hold the -NAO the chance we see a massive reversal as we did in 89-90 is much lower....in 00-01 we saw the reversal as well after December but the NAO tempered it significantly...the NAO averaged positive in Jan/Feb of 01 but it was marginally so and spent periods in the negative range....the AO was very negative too....the February 1990 AO was +3.

Also, 89-90 was in the cyclic +nao time period-- we are now in the heart of the cyclic -nao time period arent we?

[A-L-E-X]

we are true weather diehards....

Yes, because people would think we're weird for talking about this on a friday night LOL

[mattinpa]

we are true weather diehards....

True. BTW, remember that timing (day/night) could also make a difference.

[Rainshadow]

Pattern change being shown the last few runs of the GFS back to the western trough at the very end...this probably means it won't actually happen til a good 10 days later so probably a good bet the eastern 1/3rd of the U.S. at least sees a very cold entire month of December....I like my -6F departure guess for Central Park alot right now...perhaps NOT ENOUGH!!!

Yeah I wouldn't bet the house that the -NAO would go away anytime soon. Might have to start looking up the coldest strong nina on record in PHL.

[NinjaWarrior2]

We have the -NAO, but no +PNA, seems like a West-East storm pattern coming up, Overunning

[uncle W]

Yeah I wouldn't bet the house that the -NAO would go away anytime soon. Might have to start looking up the coldest strong nina on record in PHL.

I had some time to kill so I looked up Philadelphia's winter temperatures and snowfall but I could only find records up to 2000-01...Where do you find records like this after 2001?...Anyway here are the strongest nina years mei index for Jan/Feb...

season.......ave temp.....snowfall.....mei index...

1973-74..........35.4...............20.8"..........-1.906

1975-76..........35.5...............17.5"..........-1.604

1955-56..........33.4...............23.0"..........-1.429

1970-71..........33.2...............18.3"..........-1.208

1999-00..........36.5...............19.1"..........-1.129

1988-89..........35.5...............11.2"..........-1.128

1950-51..........35.5.................4.6"..........-1.078

1961-62..........30.4...............29.2"..........-1.062

1949-50..........38.7.................2.0"..........-1.052

1998-99..........38.3...............12.5"..........-1.050

1956-57..........36.1.................7.9"..........-0.966

2007-08.................................................-0.965

1954-55..........34.9...............12.1"..........-0.782

1962-63..........28.3...............20.5"..........-0.729

2008-09.................................................-0.703

1967-68..........32.6...............15.9"..........-0.622

1971-72..........36.3...............12.2"..........-0.600

1995-96..........31.9...............65.5"..........-0.591

1964-65..........33.3...............26.2"..........-0.571

1984-85..........34.8...............16.5"..........-0.561

1974-75..........37.5...............13.6"..........-0.555

2000-01..........33.7...............26.1"..........-0.525

[Rainshadow]

Yeah I wouldn't bet the house that the -NAO would go away anytime soon. Might have to start looking up the coldest strong nina on record in PHL.

I was just looking at the teleconnection site at CDC and also the general MJO outlooks, still looks like a crossroads around Mid Dec. Leaving the NAO out of the equation first, the pattern suggestion is warming starting in Mid Dec +/- a couple of days around the 17th. Now enter the NAO that is still suppose to be negative (negative east, west?). Its been more resistant than the modeling has predicted. Those same CDC site teleconnection progs from about two weeks ago had the NAO rising now and the EPO also going positive. Both are not currently occurring. I don't know the answer, would lean to be conservative with any changes, but it will be interesting to see who wins come the middle of the month.

[tombo82685]

[Dark Energy]

I was just looking at the teleconnection site at CDC and also the general MJO outlooks, still looks like a crossroads around Mid Dec. Leaving the NAO out of the equation first, the pattern suggestion is warming starting in Mid Dec +/- a couple of days around the 17th. Now enter the NAO that is still suppose to be negative (negative east, west?). Its been more resistant than the modeling has predicted. Those same CDC site teleconnection progs from about two weeks ago had the NAO rising now and the EPO also going positive. Both are not currently occurring. I don't know the answer, would lean to be conservative with any changes, but it will be interesting to see who wins come the middle of the month.

Tony, I guess this should drive Wes's point home about how the -NAO earlier in the fall doesnt have as much of an effect as say around now or once we get into winter.

[Rainshadow]

Tony, I guess this should drive Wes's point home about how the -NAO earlier in the fall doesnt have as much of an effect as say around now or once we get into winter.

Totally agree.

[Rainshadow]

I had some time to kill so I looked up Philadelphia's winter temperatures and snowfall but I could only find records up to 2000-01...Where do you find records like this after 2001?...Anyway here are the strongest nina years mei index for Jan/Feb...

season.......ave temp.....snowfall.....mei index...

1973-74..........35.4...............20.8"..........-1.906

1975-76..........35.5...............17.5"..........-1.604

1955-56..........33.4...............23.0"..........-1.429

1970-71..........33.2...............18.3"..........-1.208

1999-00..........36.5...............19.1"..........-1.129

1988-89..........35.5...............11.2"..........-1.128

1950-51..........35.5.................4.6"..........-1.078

1961-62..........30.4...............29.2"..........-1.062

1949-50..........38.7.................2.0"..........-1.052

1998-99..........38.3...............12.5"..........-1.050

1956-57..........36.1.................7.9"..........-0.966

2007-08.................................................-0.965

1954-55..........34.9...............12.1"..........-0.782

1962-63..........28.3...............20.5"..........-0.729

2008-09.................................................-0.703

1967-68..........32.6...............15.9"..........-0.622

1971-72..........36.3...............12.2"..........-0.600

1995-96..........31.9...............65.5"..........-0.591

1964-65..........33.3...............26.2"..........-0.571

1984-85..........34.8...............16.5"..........-0.561

1974-75..........37.5...............13.6"..........-0.555

2000-01..........33.7...............26.1"..........-0.525

http://www.fi.edu/weather/data/index.html

[uncle W]

http://www.fi.edu/we...data/index.html

that's the sight I used...it only goes up to 2001...

http://www.fi.edu/weather/data2/wthrsnow.txt

[SACRUS]

that's the sight I used...it only goes up to 2001...

http://www.fi.edu/we...a2/wthrsnow.txt

http://www.fi.edu/weather/data2/index.html

[uncle W]

http://www.fi.edu/we...ata2/index.html

it's the same site...I tried the NWS out of Philly but could not find updated stuff...

[nzucker]

So far 55-56 is looking like a good analog for this winter with the cold December.

[ChescoWx]

That was a slightly below normal snow season of 30.3" here in the NW suburbs of Philly

So far 55-56 is looking like a good analog for this winter with the cold December.

[JBG]

So far 55-56 is looking like a good analog for this winter with the cold December.

I'm looking at that one, and 1970-1 (also a cold December and a cold January, warm February), and 1973-4 (fickle December, and fickle all months).

[A-L-E-X]

So far 55-56 is looking like a good analog for this winter with the cold December.

Yeah I even saw Wes bring that up.  Who knows, with the way things are going the NAO might stay even more negative this winter.

[Isotherm]

So far 55-56 is looking like a good analog for this winter with the cold December.

Yep, my top analog for this winter. Things are looking good with the NAO.

[earthlight]

What a terrific signal on the long range GFS global ensembles. The blocking and -NAO showing no signs of breaking down--really awesome depiction in that regard.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/f372.gif