The Winter 2010-11 NYC/PHL Medium Range Thread

[chrisNJ]

You're calling him a flake?

HA, no, what me be a smarta$?? Anyway, he is passionate and gives us something to talk about in the northeast during the winter. I use to get amused from his Long Ranger videos years ago, but don't you need to pay for them now.

[MJO812]

0z GFS continues with the snow flurries and snow showers theme for next week. Do you think it's possible for some bands from the lakes to travel down to the coast?

[Alpha5]

0z GFS looks weaker with the 12/12 system

[MJO812]

0z GFS is a miss to the south and east.

[ag3]

At least storm signal is there. That's all we can ask for in this range.

[SnowGoose69]

The good news is thus far from memory, the GFS is holding this storm more consistently from run to run that it was the one it was showing 4 days ago that was supposed to happen on the 8th or 9th.

[CooL]

yeah the details dont matter at all right now. If anything the cold air is way overdone imo and gfs supresses it as usual.just be happy the gfs and euro are showing the same storm.

[mattinpa]

00z GFS has the storm again - looks like a Miller B with rain to snow. Still 192 hours away.

[tombo82685]

00z GFS has the storm again - looks like a Miller B with rain to snow. Still 192 hours away.

that storm is mainly rain, with a little snow at the end

[mattinpa]

that storm is mainly rain, with a little snow at the end

It looks like more than just a little to me. Remember I'm north of Philly, too. Also colder than the Euro because 850s get cold when the storm comes in.

[tombo82685]

It looks like more than just a little to me. Remember I'm north of Philly, too. Also colder than the Euro because 850s get cold when the storm comes in.

up to hr 192 your still well above freezing, from 925 down to surface your abv freezing

[Thunder Road]

It looks like more than just a little to me. Remember I'm north of Philly, too.

The Meteostar data will come out in 5 mins but it looks like we have thickness ~537 and sub-freezing 850mb temps. Of course if the bl doesn't cooperate then who cares, but it doesn't look like torch either

[mattinpa]

up to hr 192 your still well above freezing, from 925 down to surface your abv freezing

I don't think we should focus too much on the BL, really. 850s are cold and it's a long way out. I see this as a positive run.

[tombo82685]

The Meteostar data will come out in 5 mins but it looks like we have thickness ~537 and sub-freezing 850mb temps. Of course if the bl doesn't cooperate then who cares, but it doesn't look like torch either

granted its going to change but there is nothing else to talk bout. Where i get the gfs from has 925,850, 500 mb temps. 925mb temp is above all the way down to the surface

[tombo82685]

I don't think we should focus too much on the BL, really. 850s are cold and it's a long way out.

yes its along way out, but there is nothing to talk about. 850's mean nothing if your bl is warm like in this scenario. The clipper is what kills us. We need that to track further south, to much southerly flow around it that warms the bl up to much...once i get the sounding ill post it

[mattinpa]

yes its along way out, but there is nothing to talk about. 850's mean nothing if your bl is warm like in this scenario. The clipper is what kills us. We need that to track further south, to much southerly flow around it that warms the bl up to much...once i get the sounding ill post it

I think it changes to snow for sure. Looks like a cold storm. It starts out warmer than when the storm comes in. I don't think soundings mean that much at this stage.

[jrodd321]

yes its along way out, but there is nothing to talk about. 850's mean nothing if your bl is warm like in this scenario. The clipper is what kills us. We need that to track further south, to much southerly flow around it that warms the bl up to much...once i get the sounding ill post it

Yea but if it tracks further south, doesn't that mean its going to take the cold air all the way down with it, bringing us back to this huge trough again with storms not being able to turn the corner?

[MJO812]

0z GFS ensemble mean shows it transfering energy just south and east of LI

[tombo82685]

Yea but if it tracks further south, doesn't that mean its going to take the cold air all the way down with it, bringing us back to this huge trough again with storms not being able to turn the corner?

no, if it tracks further south you get two benefits. first, you get the clipper snow and the cold with no southerly winds. 2nd that would force the secondary development further south and you would get hit with that like the 0z showed if it tracked the same and dint race out to sea

[mattinpa]

Yea but if it tracks further south, doesn't that mean its going to take the cold air all the way down with it, bringing us back to this huge trough again with storms not being able to turn the corner?

Good question. It looks like it tracks more north than east, though.

[mattinpa]

no, if it tracks further south you get two benefits. first, you get the clipper snow and the cold with no southerly winds. 2nd that would force the secondary development further south and you would get hit with that like the 0z showed if it tracked the same and dint race out to sea

That is what I thought. It looked like a phase helps?

[tombo82685]

heres hr 180 sounding for philly, the lower levels torch pretty good

hr 192 sounding

[tombo82685]

after hr 192 the precip is over, so actually its ice to a very cold rain for philly

[atownwxwatcher]

Surface temps at 180 & 192

[MJO812]

Here are the soundings for NYC

http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=knyc

Surface is warm but the 850's are cold.

[tombo82685]

Here are the soundings for NYC

Surface is warm but the 850's are cold.

ant here is the skew t for nyc hrs 180, 192 204

[SnowGoose69]

Pattern change being shown the last few runs of the GFS back to the western trough at the very end...this probably means it won't actually happen til a good 10 days later so probably a good bet the eastern 1/3rd of the U.S. at least sees a very cold entire month of December....I like my -6F departure guess for Central Park alot right now...perhaps NOT ENOUGH!!!

[A-L-E-X]

Pattern change being shown the last few runs of the GFS back to the western trough at the very end...this probably means it won't actually happen til a good 10 days later so probably a good bet the eastern 1/3rd of the U.S. at least sees a very cold entire month of December....I like my -6F departure guess for Central Park alot right now...perhaps NOT ENOUGH!!!

December 1989 redux?

[SACRUS]

Pattern change being shown the last few runs of the GFS back to the western trough at the very end...this probably means it won't actually happen til a good 10 days later so probably a good bet the eastern 1/3rd of the U.S. at least sees a very cold entire month of December....I like my -6F departure guess for Central Park alot right now...perhaps NOT ENOUGH!!!

That would be on par with 2000, next 10 days looks to get in some strong negatives.. especially 12/8 - 12/12

[SnowGoose69]

December 1989 redux?

I'm thinking there is chance the monthly average could be below 30.0...especially if we get a snowpack at some point.