ag3 Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 This model continues to flip like a fish out of its natural habitat. I do not think at this point in reference to storms that anything can be trusted.. 18z and 0z have a similar situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 18z and 0z have a similar situation. Similar in the sense of a retrograding low -yes Similar in how it gets from point A to B...- different.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 im not sure its done. I think wes mentioned the reason was because the trade winds or something slackened off. There is a whole thread dedicated to it CPC Weeklies 11/22 (most recent) Region 1.2: -1.5C Region 3: -1.5C Region 3.4: -1.5C Region 4: -1.2C There's been a tremendous amount of cooling this week as you can see from the Unisys SST maps: 11/21 SSTs: Current SSTs: We recently had a major trade wind burst that cooled off Region 4, 3.4, and especially Region 3 which is probably at its coldest value for the season. Here is the map of wind anomalies in the ENSO regions. Note we should have some moderate trade winds moving into Region 3 to increase the cooling: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 epic cold on the gfs, sub 510 thicknesses. Cold is just ten plus days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Cold is just ten plus days away! Actually it's 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Actually it's 8 days. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_180m.gif Looks rather run of the mill to me...if you think "cold" is low/mid 40's feel free to roll with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Cold is just ten plus days away! The gfs gave up the deep cold (sub 520 thicknesses) for this morning with the day run on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Well this storm is going to be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 The gfs gave up the deep cold (sub 520 thicknesses) for this morning with the day run on Sunday. tony, its starting to back off on the the sub 530 thickness for dec 2, 6z was 529 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Cold is just ten plus days away! yea thats how it always is, theme of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 day 9-10 euro has a storm gathering in texas loaded with mositure. Problem being a ton of ridging out ahead of the storm the block is there but a little east based. Nice pna ridge, but a pos epo with goa low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 day 9-10 euro has a storm gathering in texas loaded with mositure. Problem being a ton of ridging out ahead of the storm the block is there but a little east based. Nice pna ridge, but a pos epo with goa low. If that actually occurred that system would probably be more progressive than shown by the Euro, remember it ALWAYS holds those systems too far back SW in the medium to long range......the pattern in the WATL is not terrible for a storm as shown by the Euro at Day 10 but it isn't great either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 i like the pattern at day 10... especially the mauler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Day 9-10 of the euro are epic cold. nice pos pna, nice block in the atl, the flood gates from the arctic are pointed right at the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 ECMWF Day 10 setting up for a significant snowstorm all the way to the coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Long Range Canadian is also ready to rock...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Long Range Canadian is also ready to rock...wow. this link you can see its ready to come up http://www.stanford.edu/~tenhoeve/weather/00zPrecipGLB.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 this link you can see its ready to come up http://www.stanford.edu/~tenhoeve/weather/00zPrecipGLB.htm The block is really in a sick position to keep the cold air in place. Also there's a partial phase at H5. It's a long shot but it's fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 The block is really in a sick position to keep the cold air in place. Also there's a partial phase at H5. It's a long shot but it's fun to look at. so the big 3 all have that 2nd storm now.. gfs phases it alittle late but its gonna be interesting to track over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 DT just woofed on SV for Dec 9-10. Hellz yes. Good seeing him finally give into a possible storm haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 I thought the 12z GFS was a dud run. No storm, and while it gets cold, there's no precip. until it warms up. Just one run, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Lol at the 12z GFS. This model is just laughable. No cold in the entire US after that midweek storm after the run 6 hours ago just showed a ton of cold. Until the Euro shows this, all we can do is laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Lol at the 12z GFS. This model is just laughable. No cold in the entire US after that midweek storm after the run 6 hours ago just showed a ton of cold. Until the Euro shows this, all we can do is laugh. Agreed = Typical GFS starts losing storms in this time range........losing the cold air definetly shows it is also a bad run.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 It's interesting that sometimes when a model shows a supposed "dud" run, the other models join in with it and the model that showed the "dud" run continues to show it in future runs. Although, I do think that this time, the gfs was probably off, but who knows what could happen. In this upcoming season, I would favor the warmer runs than the colder, snowier model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duality Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 It's interesting that sometimes when a model shows a supposed "dud" run, the other models join in with it and the model that showed the "dud" run continues to show it in future runs. Although, I do think that this time, the gfs was probably off, but who knows what could happen. In this upcoming season, I would favor the warmer runs than the colder, snowier model runs. CBW123? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Mark your calendars. I think the models are beginning to converge (as others have said) on the 12/6-10 period for our first wintry event. With some level of similarity between the GFS, CMC, and EURO, this time period really needs to be watched. La-la land, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 With a Greenland/Rex Block that large, A slow moving storm is very possible (if of course, we get the 50-50 Low, and the digging trough to go with it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 With a Greenland/Rex Block that large, A slow moving storm is very possible (if of course, we get the 50-50 Low, and the digging trough to go with it). Every model has been too surpressed to this point. If there is a block that strong and SW biased, any precip/storm would be squashed above 40N. We would need the block to lessen/dispalce to the north more before I would get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 another swfe on the 18Z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 18z GFS ensemble mean shows a low near the coast. Getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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