The Winter 2010-11 NYC/PHL Medium Range Thread

[tombo82685]

why is the storm suppressed? massive blocking? and if it wasnt suppressed, it would probably be showing as a nice coastal.

yes, the huge blocking is just sheering it out, ala last yr with what happened north of philly

[tombo82685]

Just curious, isn't the ensemble mean a blend of all the ensembles? Even tho some are warmer/colder or even completely different, wouldn't it all just balance out to somewhat agree with the op?

Im not tony, but yes the ens mean is the avg of the ens mean. Put it like this,using monthy temps, say for the month straight we had 26 of 31 days that were in the -2 to -5 below normal range for temps. Those other 5 days were plus 10- 15, the mean avg of the month would be close to normal, even though 3/4 of the month was below normal. Do you get what im trying to say? Relate that to the 12 indiv ens members say 8 of them had storms that cut across the north above us, but 4 of them showed storms going off the sc coast, the mean would adjust it, south to get the avg, when majority of the ens members show a northern track, you follow?

[CooL]

Im not tony, but yes the ens mean is the avg of the ens mean. Put it like this,using monthy temps, say for the month straight we had 26 of 31 days that were in the -2 to -5 below normal range for temps. Those other 5 days were plus 10- 15, the mean avg of the month would be close to normal, even though 3/4 of the month was below normal. Do you get what im trying to say? Relate that to the 12 indiv ens members say 8 of them had storms that cut across the north above us, but 4 of them showed storms going off the sc coast, the mean would adjust it, south to get the avg, when majority of the ens members show a northern track, you follow?

ahh ok that explains it. Thanks man

[Manny]

At least the Euro is showing a better synoptic setup, maybe too aggressive, but it's still good to see a West based -NAO on the Euro with a storm on the horizon down south.

[Manny]

Oh now I see the Euro's setup. A SW flow event, with a secondary popping off the coast of Hatteras moving OTS. The SW event gets sheared out. Makes sense now.

[RowanBrandon]

yes, the huge blocking is just sheering it out, ala last yr with what happened north of philly

Which means good news for us south of Philly?

[phlwx]

Which means good news for us south of Philly?

If you like 1" of snow at most (verbatim), yes.

Most of the energy jumps the coastal plain completely.

[MJO812]

Accuweather is already on top of next weekend's storm

http://www.accuweath...snowstorm-1.asp

[CooL]

Accuweather on top of next weekend's storm

http://www.accuweath...snowstorm-1.asp

i love how they give readers the 3 options, that made me laugh

[Riptide]

Accuweather is already on top of next weekend's storm

http://www.accuweath...snowstorm-1.asp

It looks like Accuweather reached an all-new low.

[Alpha5]

It looks like Accuweather reached an all-new low.

Almost as bad as TWC

[atownwxwatcher]

Accuweather is already on top of next weekend's storm

http://www.accuweath...snowstorm-1.asp

Is this any different from normal? It sounds like they are applying the dartboard technology to discuss the weather!

[jrodd321]

Is this any different from normal? It sounds like they are applying the dartboard technology to discuss the weather!

Yep. It's such classic accuweather. They run on hype, so they will take the smallest looking storm on the long range models and of course use a headline like "Taking of a Northeast Snowstorm" haha gotta love them.

[SnowGoose69]

It looks like Accuweather reached an all-new low.

They're going to look dumb in a few days...not that would be anything unusual....this storm is going to cut west as well IMO...if you look at the 12Z GFS at 174 hours just before the resolution truncation while there is a Greenland block there really is no 50/50 low which likely means the SE ridge will fire much more amplified than the 12Z GFS is indicating at 500mb...this probably won't be a massive cutter but probably a snow event more along the lines for DET, TOR, BUF.

[CooL]

They're going to look dumb in a few days...not that would be anything unusual....this storm is going to cut west as well IMO...if you look at the 12Z GFS at 174 hours just before the resolution truncation while there is a Greenland block there really is no 50/50 low which likely means the SE ridge will fire much more amplified than the 12Z GFS is indicating at 500mb...this probably won't be a massive cutter but probably a snow event more along the lines for DET, TOR, BUF.

ouch, there goes my hope

[MGorse]

Is this any different from normal?

Nope.

[mattinpa]

18z GFS still has two threats and is very cold in the long range.

[CooL]

if anyone wants to explain the 18z gfs outcome be my guest. Looks like a retrograding low pressure out in the atlantic somehow gets us some wintry precip. The only thing i take out of this is that timeframe has atleast some potential.

[tombo82685]

if anyone wants to explain the 18z gfs outcome be my guest. Looks like a retrograding low pressure out in the atlantic somehow gets us some wintry precip. The only thing i take out of this is that timeframe has atleast some potential.

basically the atlantic is one blocked up mess that has storms meandering

[nzucker]

They're going to look dumb in a few days...not that would be anything unusual....this storm is going to cut west as well IMO...if you look at the 12Z GFS at 174 hours just before the resolution truncation while there is a Greenland block there really is no 50/50 low which likely means the SE ridge will fire much more amplified than the 12Z GFS is indicating at 500mb...this probably won't be a massive cutter but probably a snow event more along the lines for DET, TOR, BUF.

Yeah, it's the same problem with the 18z GFS. The storm is clearly going to cut west until truncation lowers the model's resolution and causes a miracle solution to occur. You can see, however, that we're basically setting up for a lakes cutter with a primary over the Central Plains and not much of a 50/50 Low to lock in the cold air. I think both the 12/2 and 12/6 storms will end up being too warm for NYC metro. Overall, I'm not liking the pattern I see despite the LR fantasy threats. The La Niña is undergoing a period of rapid strengthening and we don't have a favorable MJO to help us out with tropical convection forcing. I think we might see some better shots at good snowfalls and cold temperatures towards mid-late December but my enthusiasm is tempered now.

[tombo82685]

Yeah, it's the same problem with the 18z GFS. The storm is clearly going to cut west until truncation lowers the model's resolution and causes a miracle solution to occur. You can see, however, that we're basically setting up for a lakes cutter with a primary over the Central Plains and not much of a 50/50 Low to lock in the cold air. I think both the 12/2 and 12/6 storms will end up being too warm for NYC metro. Overall, I'm not liking the pattern I see despite the LR fantasy threats. The La Niña is undergoing a period of rapid strengthening and we don't have a favorable MJO to help us out with tropical convection forcing. I think we might see some better shots at good snowfalls and cold temperatures towards mid-late December but my enthusiasm is tempered now.

12/2 is dead in the water, but 12/5 i think has the most potential so far this season, which isn't saying much. Totally agree on the 18z gfs with the truncation miracle. I think everyone is in a wait and see mode, no one is guaranteeing anything except maybe accuweather, its just nice to have something to keep an eye on.

[atownwxwatcher]

Yeah, it's the same problem with the 18z GFS. The storm is clearly going to cut west until truncation lowers the model's resolution and causes a miracle solution to occur. You can see, however, that we're basically setting up for a lakes cutter with a primary over the Central Plains and not much of a 50/50 Low to lock in the cold air. I think both the 12/2 and 12/6 storms will end up being too warm for NYC metro. Overall, I'm not liking the pattern I see despite the LR fantasy threats. The La Niña is undergoing a period of rapid strengthening and we don't have a favorable MJO to help us out with tropical convection forcing. I think we might see some better shots at good snowfalls and cold temperatures towards mid-late December but my enthusiasm is tempered now.

Problem is it is not just the GFS that is showing a potential at snowfall but the ECM is as well ..albeit on the light side. As i said before in reference to this time period..do not get sold on any track or any 2 meter temperatures...if it is outside of 5 days take it with a grain of salt. The most one can take away from anything right now is that there is potential for a storm in this period.

I also would not say that the NINA is rapidly strengthening.. Back on october 6th 3.4 was at -1.8 and since that time it had actually warmed and then essentially stalled at -1.3 for two weeks or so and since Nino 1 & 2 had warmed with the last reading issued and Nino 4 had also warmed from what it was just two weeks ago. The only region that cooled somewhat was 3.4 but not to near the levels it was before...

[CooL]

Problem is it is not just the GFS that is showing a potential at snowfall but the ECM is as well ..albeit on the light side. As i said before in reference to this time period..do not get sold on any track or any 2 meter temperatures...if it is outside of 5 days take it with a grain of salt. The most one can take away from anything right now is that there is potential for a storm in this period.

I also would not say that the NINA is rapidly strengthening.. Back on october 6th 3.4 was at -1.8 and since that time it had actually warmed and then essentially stalled at -1.3 for two weeks or so and since Nino 1 & 2 had warmed with the last reading issued and Nino 4 had also warmed from what it was just two weeks ago. The only region that cooled somewhat was 3.4 but not to near the levels it was before...

yeah i was about to ask, "hasnt the nina peaked?" thanks for the clarification

[Quakertown needs snow]

Accuweather is already on top of next weekend's storm

http://www.accuweath...snowstorm-1.asp

Henry will have his snow map out soon I'm sure.

JB says 55% of US will have a white xmas before the change to you know what.

[Alpha5]

Henry will have his snow map out soon I'm sure.

JB says 55% of US will have a white xmas before the change to you know what.

I just hope he doesnt curse it with the big daddy hat

[tombo82685]

yeah i was about to ask, "hasnt the nina peaked?" thanks for the clarification

im not sure its done. I think wes mentioned the reason was because the trade winds or something slackened off. There is a whole thread dedicated to it

[tombo82685]

epic cold on the gfs, sub 510 thicknesses.

[Analog96]

if anyone wants to explain the 18z gfs outcome be my guest. Looks like a retrograding low pressure out in the atlantic somehow gets us some wintry precip. The only thing i take out of this is that timeframe has atleast some potential.

That isn't really much different from what happened in early November if you think about it.

[MJO812]

0z ensembles also have the storm retrogading. Very strong blocking.

[atownwxwatcher]

This model continues to flip like a fish out of its natural habitat. I do not think at this point in reference to storms that anything can be trusted..