The Winter 2010-11 NYC/PHL Medium Range Thread

[nzucker]

This is the page I'm on - that we have a major low/inland runner mid next week complete w/ hvy rain and wind. The next storm is also a no-go for our area w/ a track probably into interior New England or the Great Lakes. Thereafter,we should see the trough axis shift east (and this is depicted on the ECMWF now as well) into a more favorable orientation for coastal snow. I've liked the Dec 7th-10th time frame for awhile and models seem to be consistent in getting us toward a sustained colder pattern by that period. So we'll see what happens; things should be improving gradually as we get deeper into December.

Very good analysis, Tom, mirroring my thoughts exactly. I think the first storm is a heavy rain event for the entire East Coast; the second system around 12/5 might have some potential in NNE but is likely to be pretty marginal in the Northeast with the track being more of the cutter type. The long-range models do seem to be honing in on a -EPO pattern starting after the second cutter with more cold air moving into the NYC metro region, so I'd think that's a wise time to look for snow. We might see a warm-up mid-month as some have been talking about the possibility of the MJO moving into Phase 1-2 which is a mild signal for the region. I wouldn't be surprised if the pattern goes back to wintry around Christmas or a bit before.

This was kind of a gloomy, miserable Thanksgiving. Rain and 38-40F much of the day, although the ice pellets earlier put me in a mood for the first snowfall. Nothing fun about cold rain though.

I like a gloomy Thanksgiving though. Better than having highs in the 60s. For me, Thanksgiving represents the first day of the cold season.

[Sundog]

I like a gloomy Thanksgiving though. Better than having highs in the 60s. For me, Thanksgiving represents the first day of the cold season.

Agree, I hate warm Thanksgivings, they actually depress me. This was a nice change to the string of warm/warmer ones we've been having since 2002. 2002 had awesome cold which we all know led to a hell of an opening to winter 10 days later.

[Alpha5]

0z GFS is a BIG step in the right direction, 2m temps may be warm, but the H5 setup is amazing

[MJO812]

December 5 . It's a big step in the right direction.

[MJO812]

This run is really cold after next week's Lakes Cutter.

[RowanBrandon]

Much better than it has been. Plus, the weekend rule is in effect.

[MJO812]

Much better than it has been. Plus, the weekend rule is in effect.

The weekend rule was broken last winter.

[CooL]

Alittle too warm this run but who cares, the storm is there and off the coast, and most importantly, its not in the 300hr+ range anymore.

[MJO812]

0z GFS ensembles are also hinting at a storm in the Dec 4-6 timeframe. Here is the 0z GFS ensemble mean.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12228.gif

[Isotherm]

Very good analysis, Tom, mirroring my thoughts exactly. I think the first storm is a heavy rain event for the entire East Coast; the second system around 12/5 might have some potential in NNE but is likely to be pretty marginal in the Northeast with the track being more of the cutter type. The long-range models do seem to be honing in on a -EPO pattern starting after the second cutter with more cold air moving into the NYC metro region, so I'd think that's a wise time to look for snow. We might see a warm-up mid-month as some have been talking about the possibility of the MJO moving into Phase 1-2 which is a mild signal for the region. I wouldn't be surprised if the pattern goes back to wintry around Christmas or a bit before.

I like a gloomy Thanksgiving though. Better than having highs in the 60s. For me, Thanksgiving represents the first day of the cold season.

Thanks Nate, we're pretty much on the same page. I'm not convinced we torch in late December either; in fact if we can keep the neg nao/ao going, things could get interesting around the holidays.

[MJO812]

Looks like the GFS, GFS ensembles, Euro, Euro ensembles, GGEM have a storm around the 12/4-12/6 time frame. GFS, Euro ensembles are colder and further south than the op.

[NYCSuburbs]

While the NAO will be negative through the medium range, there are some differences with the PNA, as the CPC page has a persistent -PNA, while the GFS has the PNA becoming positive around the 7-9th. The 06z GFS is showing some crazy solutions in its long range, so I'm not too sure whether to take it seriously or not for the PNA.

[NYCSuburbs]

This is the page I'm on - that we have a major low/inland runner mid next week complete w/ hvy rain and wind. The next storm is also a no-go for our area w/ a track probably into interior New England or the Great Lakes. Thereafter,we should see the trough axis shift east (and this is depicted on the ECMWF now as well) into a more favorable orientation for coastal snow. I've liked the Dec 7th-10th time frame for awhile and models seem to be consistent in getting us toward a sustained colder pattern by that period. So we'll see what happens; things should be improving gradually as we get deeper into December.

I agree with you, the December 4-6 storm looks like it's going to be a west to east moving storm but with a track potentially to the north of the Mid Atlantic, and while it's impossible to get an idea from the models of what could happen afterwards with the GFS still going with its crazy idea of a giant trough covering nearly all of the US, I also think that snow chances should improve after the 12/5 storm.

[tombo82685]

The 0z euro on the dec 5th storm did move in the right step. Its now a glorified sw flow event, that sne does pretty decent in. Before the euro wasn't holding any cold air, and it was just a warm blast.

[MJO812]

12/5 storm is still looking good for the area.

Check this out.

[Quakertown needs snow]

The 0z euro on the dec 5th storm did move in the right step. Its now a glorified sw flow event, that sne does pretty decent in. Before the euro wasn't holding any cold air, and it was just a warm blast.

yeah not like the gfs .. holding out for 12z euro

[MJO812]

12z GFS ensemble mean agrees with the op in regards to the 12/5 storm.

[tombo82685]

12z GFS ensemble mean agrees with the op in regards to the 12/5 storm.

I know they haven't come out yet, but the indiv runs are probably the best to look at in my eyes. One ens member could track the storm off fl and throw the whole mean off like this.

[Rainshadow]

[Alpha5]

No storm in Florida

[tombo82685]

No storm in Florida

yea i wasn't trying to be an ass, i was just saying a couple tracks like that and it can pull the ens mean to look like a great hit when majority of the runs show a blah situation. I think it may be close to saying that dec 5th might be the first threat.

[Alpha5]

yea i wasn't trying to be an ass, i was just saying a couple tracks like that and it can pull the ens mean to look like a great hit when majority of the runs show a blah situation. I think it may be close to saying that dec 5th might be the first threat.

Yeah I get what you were trying to say, no worries

[Rainshadow]

yea i wasn't trying to be an ass, i was just saying a couple tracks like that and it can pull the ens mean to look like a great hit when majority of the runs show a blah situation. I think it may be close to saying that dec 5th might be the first threat.

Tom,

Those ensemble members prove your point. The colder drier members, drag down the thermal average, while the wetter ones are warmer.

[tombo82685]

Tom,

Those ensemble members prove your point. The colder drier members, drag down the thermal average, while the wetter ones are warmer.

yea, its going to be interesting to see what the euro shows right now for that time period. I think dec 5th may be the first threat for parts of the area.

[CooL]

Tom,

Those ensemble members prove your point. The colder drier members, drag down the thermal average, while the wetter ones are warmer.

Just curious, isn't the ensemble mean a blend of all the ensembles? Even tho some are warmer/colder or even completely different, wouldn't it all just balance out to somewhat agree with the op?

[daxx]

In the southern ne thread it sounds like the euro is going crazy with the -nao.

[tombo82685]

In the southern ne thread it sounds like the euro is going crazy with the -nao.

yep, just made a thread on it. Epic west based -nao that shears the dec 5th storm out to the south.

[MJO812]

In the southern ne thread it sounds like the euro is going crazy with the -nao.

Major blocking on the Euro.

The Euro suppresses the Dec 5th storm way to the south. There is a low near Hatteras on the Euro.

[tombo82685]

long range euro day 10 has a good west based -nao, but it has moved a little east the heights nice pos pna and epo, cold air pouring into the lakes mid atl and northeast.

[CooL]

why is the storm suppressed? massive blocking? and if it wasnt suppressed, it would probably be showing as a nice coastal.