The Winter 2010-11 NYC/PHL Medium Range Thread

[MJO812]

I was above 60 the last two days......i just dont see how january can be any worse then that

2001-2002 winter?

[atownwxwatcher]

Pretty much this current month of November is not as warm as what last years November was...where temperatures across the whole NE were as much as +2 to +8 across the region..However..come December all but Maine was essentially below normal or seasonal..

I know that last winter was an El Nino and this winter is going to be a La Nina...but I do not see this winter being a total dismal winter just because its a La Nina. Pretty much if you were to look at La Nina Winters that followed active Hurricane seasons with named storms in the range of 15-19..You come up with a small sample size of 4 yrs (out of the top ten hurricane seasons followed by La Nina winter) in which 3 of the 4 were actually colder then normal. Not sure if there is an actual correlation or not but found it to be quite interesting..

[Allsnow]

2001-2002 winter?

I got 4 inches of snow in january 2002........

[MJO812]

I got 4 inches of snow in january 2002........

I got 3 and that was it for the winter.

[Alpha5]

Yeah 2009 we where suppose to torch that month...ended up getting a good amount of snow and very cold temps.

I think I had snow on the ground every day of the month

I got 3 and that was it for the winter.

And it melted with a day or two

[Alpha5]

Upton was just kicking ass and taking names

did the same last year, i think they had the most in the entire tri-state

[H2Otown_WX]

This could be the coldest night since February. NAM MOS has DXR getting down to 18F...seems a little extreme but I guess it's possible if the winds become calm.

[Absolute Humidity]

2001-2002 winter?

January 2002 - the only snow that winter, if you were an Oakland Raiders fan, you remember that snow real well.

[tombo82685]

January 2002 - the only snow that winter, if you were an Oakland Raiders fan, you remember that snow real well.

cough "tuck rule" cough

[CooL]

No posts on the 18z gfs, just took a look, and now i know why.

[earthlight]

Friday night is going to be easily the coldest night of the season

[Sundog]

Friday night is going to be easily the coldest night of the season

Hopefully NYC actually gets below 32.

[CooL]

Hopefully fri night isnt the coldest night of the whole season..lol do we still have sleet potential tommorrow? The way things look to me, areas further west with elevation have the better shot, especially NW jersey and PA.

[earthlight]

Hopefully fri night isnt the coldest night of the whole season..lol do we still have sleet potential tommorrow? The way things look to me, areas further west with elevation have the better shot, especially NW jersey and PA.

Thus far, definitely. And yes..the frozen precipitation threat is still there IMO. Discussion on that is ongoing in the NYC OBS/Disco thread.

[MJO812]

Very interesting GFS run. A lot of cold air in the long range and a couple of storm threats.

[tombo82685]

0z euro at day 10 has a nice west based block and -epo/pos pna combo. Looks like a another lake cutter post 240 then the pattern settles in if the 0z is correct.

[tombo82685]

long range euro post 8days, has a nice west based that goes to semi west to east based nao. pos pna, but a pos epo. Around day 9-day 10 a storm comes in from the midwest but heads to the lake. The true lack of a 50/50 low is hurting in reguards to that storm.

[CooL]

12z gfs pours in the arctic air in the long range..But when does the gfs *not have that in its long range

[ag3]

long range euro post 8days, has a nice west based that goes to semi west to east based nao. pos pna, but a pos epo. Around day 9-day 10 a storm comes in from the midwest but heads to the lake. The true lack of a 50/50 low is hurting in reguards to that storm.

Still looks like a decent SW flow event and an overrunning type system.

[nzucker]

Still looks like a decent SW flow event and an overrunning type system.

There's a strong signal for a SW flow event around Day 10, but the question is whether the western trough will dig too deep once again and cause the storm to ride too far north for the East. It's a fairly marginal airmass so we need a decent track to get snow all the way down to the coastal plain. I'm thinking this might be a decent hit for NNE with a snow-->rain scenario in SNE and the NW suburbs of NYC.

[Alpha5]

18z GFS looking really nice for the 12/5 storm

on the 18z the pacific sw doesnt amplify or dig in the west, rather due to the zonal flow over the US its elongated and travels due east before phasing and amplifying over the Gulf of Maine. The big difference here is that the Pacific ridging is much more favorable, the sw is not forced to amplify early due to forcing from the ridge moving into the Pac NW. If you look at the H5 charts on the 18z, the pacific flow is mainly zonal and the sw as a result is not condensed and no vort max forms causing the sw not to dig over the great basin

[nzucker]

18z GFS looking really nice for the 12/5 storm

on the 18z the pacific sw doesnt amplify or dig in the west, rather due to the zonal flow over the US its elongated and travels due east before phasing and amplifying over the Gulf of Maine. The big difference here is that the Pacific ridging is much more favorable, the sw is not forced to amplify early due to forcing from the ridge moving into the Pac NW. If you look at the H5 charts on the 18z, the pacific flow is mainly zonal and the sw as a result is not condensed and no vort max forms causing the sw not to dig over the great basin

It does look a bit less like a true cutter but the position of the high pressure moving off the coast wouldn't allow the Northeast to see any snow. Although 2m temperatures are notoriously inaccurate in the long range, the GFS has the correct idea in showing that southerly flow is warming up the area quickly; it's nearly 50F in NYC when the precipitation arrives:

[Allsnow]

When has a primary going over buffalo ever given nyc snow, with no secondary?

[Alpha5]

When has a primary going over buffalo ever given nyc snow, with no secondary?

Cant think of any

at least the primary's not going over minnesota

[Alpha5]

It does look a bit less like a true cutter but the position of the high pressure moving off the coast wouldn't allow the Northeast to see any snow. Although 2m temperatures are notoriously inaccurate in the long range, the GFS has the correct idea in showing that southerly flow is warming up the area quickly; it's nearly 50F in NYC when the precipitation arrives:

2m Temps? Really its 200 hrs out

[earthlight]

2m Temps? Really its 200 hrs out

I don't think his point lies in the 2m temps...but more in the positioning of the low pressure and the high pressure sliding off the coast...and resultant fact that snow or frozen precipitation would be extremely unlikely.

[Alpha5]

I don't think his point lies in the 2m temps...but more in the positioning of the low pressure and the high pressure sliding off the coast...and resultant fact that snow or frozen precipitation would be extremely unlikely.

Ok I understand. THe surface map is certainly unfriendly snow wise, but its definitely an improvement from the 12z run

[NYCSuburbs]

Looking at the potential pattern, it doesn't seem like snow chances are too good until at least after 12/5. The GFS/ECMWF seem to be nicely consistent with the general set up of the storm for next Wednesday (Dec 1), which seems to have a negative tilt as it's exiting the NE US. If their current solutions verify, it looks like a heavy rain to some back end flakes scenario, but nothing very exciting. For the 12/5 storm, the track isn't nailed down yet as we're still in the 200+ hour range, but it looks like that one could also track inland with a -PNA still in place.

[Isotherm]

Looking at the potential pattern, it doesn't seem like snow chances are too good until at least after 12/5. The GFS/ECMWF seem to be nicely consistent with the general set up of the storm for next Wednesday (Dec 1), which seems to have a negative tilt as it's exiting the NE US. If their current solutions verify, it looks like a heavy rain to some back end flakes scenario, but nothing very exciting. For the 12/5 storm, the track isn't nailed down yet as we're still in the 200+ hour range, but it looks like that one could also track inland with a -PNA still in place.

This is the page I'm on - that we have a major low/inland runner mid next week complete w/ hvy rain and wind. The next storm is also a no-go for our area w/ a track probably into interior New England or the Great Lakes. Thereafter,we should see the trough axis shift east (and this is depicted on the ECMWF now as well) into a more favorable orientation for coastal snow. I've liked the Dec 7th-10th time frame for awhile and models seem to be consistent in getting us toward a sustained colder pattern by that period. So we'll see what happens; things should be improving gradually as we get deeper into December.

[Isotherm]

This was kind of a gloomy, miserable Thanksgiving. Rain and 38-40F much of the day, although the ice pellets earlier put me in a mood for the first snowfall. Nothing fun about cold rain though.