mattinpa Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Right now one has to believe the GFS is too cold in the long range based on its performance the last few weeks............. Maybe it won't get as cold as the 6z, but I CAN see it getting cold with all that cold air out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Some nice 24 hour trends in the ensembles. Basically, the theme has been a more -epo type look. Heights have been depicted to be much higher than even 36 hrs ago, which in turn aids in cross polar flow into Canada. The euro ensembles still tried to dig the trough in the high plains around 12/3, threatening a cutter, but even they started out with a more -epo look. I still think a warm solution is very possible for the storm around 12/5, but it looks to try and continue the "step down" process afterwards. The nao block continues to hang the whole time as well. Give Dec a chance. The odds might be a little less down here, as compared to sne...but folks we are very early into the season. I think people feel that December may be the only wintry month and want it to start snowing immediately, but I wouldn't take that theory to the bank just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Man, the 6z GFS is really cold in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Man, the 6z GFS is really cold in the long range. Now, we know it's probably not right and it will probably show a torch here on the 12z. But damn that was nice to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Some nice 24 hour trends in the ensembles. Basically, the theme has been a more -epo type look. Heights have been depicted to be much higher than even 36 hrs ago, which in turn aids in cross polar flow into Canada. The euro ensembles still tried to dig the trough in the high plains around 12/3, threatening a cutter, but even they started out with a more -epo look. I still think a warm solution is very possible for the storm around 12/5, but it looks to try and continue the "step down" process afterwards. The nao block continues to hang the whole time as well. Give Dec a chance. The odds might be a little less down here, as compared to sne...but folks we are very early into the season. I think people feel that December may be the only wintry month and want it to start snowing immediately, but I wouldn't take that theory to the bank just yet. Good post...it's going to happen eventually, it's just a matter of when. The -EPO would certainly be of tremendous importance in getting the ball rolling faster. As it is, with the ensembles still not totally sold on the big west based -NAO block (seems like the one that appeared for days has become fantasy now), it may take a while, including a few cutters, to get this pattern flipped. There's still plenty of time, some signs are encouraging at this point. I do still think most areas north of PHL cash in at least one major snowstorm before December is over. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Greg, I wish I could find a better graph, but just eyeballing a couple at the EMC site, my interpretation would be that the upgrade has not shown that much of an improvement, while the gfs has improved since its upgrade. There were some shaky solutions the Euro had this autumn (too far e with the tropical flooding rains, had a lakes cutter when the low went east of us among some), The graph is interesting as when the models go bad, they do tend to go bad in tandem. Best post on this subject! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 12z GFS looks really cold in the long range. It develops a nice -EPO towards the end of the run. Our storm for December went through the lakes on the run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 12z GFS looks really cold in the long range. It develops a nice -EPO towards the end of the run. Our storm for December went through the lakes on the run . Primary goes negative to quick and with a flat PNA I doubt that this would happen. The ensembles should have it more south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 12z GFS looks really cold in the long range. It develops a nice -EPO towards the end of the run. Our storm for December went through the lakes on the run . Been cold in the long range for 10 days now.....means nothing. I'd rather have the cold/storms in mid to late December anyways when we have a better climatological chance of it snowing and better white X-mas chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 The storm still winds up off the coast around the 276 hr range. Better than the 384 hr range. And it gets really cold thereafter. The 2 lakes cutters before that could potentially make the long range gfs pattern somewhat credible tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 It's just going to come down to whether we can get the Pacific to cooperate for a time during these storm threats. It's too early in the season to have otherwise (it's too early in the season in general). The Atlantic looks solid over the next couple weeks even if it's not in the form of a severe retrograding Greenland block. I'm not going to speculate far into storm tracks on the models day 10 and beyond, hopefully some of the hints of a spike in the PNA or a dip in the EPO are not just fantasy this go around. http://www.examiner....ekend-cool-shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 12z euro is worse than 0z. Looks like the -epo is gone, east based -nao, at hr 240 a midwest cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 12z euro is worse than 0z. Looks like the -epo is gone, east based -nao, at hr 240 a midwest cutter. You go insane watching these model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 All models in the long range keep flipping like fish when they are out of their water. This is nothing new. I think so many are expecting an early start to winter because they have been led to believe by some if that does not happen then there is going to be no winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 12z euro is worse than 0z. Looks like the -epo is gone, east based -nao, at hr 240 a midwest cutter. Defanite -PNA signal and no real cold air at all from Artic, Eastern Canada is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 12z euro is worse than 0z. Looks like the -epo is gone, east based -nao, at hr 240 a midwest cutter. Meh. As long as the GFS continues to advertise false hope in the long range, I think we'll all be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Yes the euro is so reliable from run to run...lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 You go insane watching these model runs. im just posting this cause people don't have access to the euro, only reason. I mean i can switch and just post something only if its good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Yes the euro is so reliable from run to run...lol! still better than the gfs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Yes the euro is so reliable from run to run...lol! Im not saying im believing im just saying what it shows, just like you guys say with the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 im just posting this cause people don't have access to the euro, only reason. I mean i can switch and just post something only if its good No, keep posting it all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 im just posting this cause people don't have access to the euro, only reason. I mean i can switch and just post something only if its good I know. I didn't say anything wrong about you posting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I know. I didn't say anything wrong about you posting it. I didn;t mean for it to come out like rude or mean, i was just asking, should i just only post stuff that is good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I didn;t mean for it to come out like rude or mean, i was just asking, should i just only post stuff that is good? No. Keep on posting the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 If Tombo did that then there will be no posts about the euro then this winter. I enjoy reading the euro posts, good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Question...Most people say we need to get our snow in december, as the pattern is going to suck after. Well i know its early but it seems like the pattern pretty much sucks now, how worse can it can in january? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 im just posting this cause people don't have access to the euro, only reason. I mean i can switch and just post something only if its good Keep posting Tom. If the models were always consistent, it would take the fun out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Question...Most people say we need to get our snow in december, as the pattern is going to suck after. Well i know its early but it seems like the pattern pretty much sucks now, how worse can it can in january? 50's and 60's with . A lot of people think that January will be ****ty. LC and a few other people think it's not going to be ****ty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Question...Most people say we need to get our snow in december, as the pattern is going to suck after. Well i know its early but it seems like the pattern pretty much sucks now, how worse can it can in january? A couple of winters ago had a crappy December but a pretty decent end of January/beginning of Feb. That was a Nina winter but did not play out as a traditional Nina winter per climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 50's and 60's with . A lot of people think that January will be ****ty. LC and a few other people think it's not going to be ****ty. I was above 60 the last two days......i just dont see how january can be any worse then that A couple of winters ago had a crappy December but a pretty decent end of January/beginning of Feb. That was a Nina winter but did not play out as a traditional Nina winter per climo. Yeah 2009 we where suppose to torch that month...ended up getting a good amount of snow and very cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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