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The Winter 2010-11 NYC/PHL Medium Range Thread

am19psu

By am19psu,
in New York City Metro

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jrodd321

jrodd321

Posted
Posted

:huh:

No it isn't. Cold air looks to come down in the first week of December and stay here for a while. The NAO looks west based on the run. Not a bad run.

Cold air really doesn't come down until the second cutter around the 4th, then there's a storm forming near the end of the run when the cold air is finally in place.

Like people have continually said, it just doesn't want to make progress. seems like it just constantly is in the 324-384 range.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

what time frame is the west based block? Cause i dont see it in the gfs long range.

Toward the end of the run. It looks like it is. Maybe I am tired. :arrowhead:

Cold air really doesn't come down until the second cutter around the 4th, then there's a storm forming near the end of the run when the cold air is finally in place.

Like people have continually said, it just doesn't want to make progress. seems like it just constantly is in the 324-384 range.

It looks good to me.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

GFS is a torch for early next week...you get close to +10C 850s, which is way above average. Given the cloudiness at night, we could easily see some +15 departures with the airmass coming in Monday, assuming the cutter does form. November could end up above normal in temperatures despite the fact that the first week was -7F.

Great post, Tom. I'm not really liking what I see lately...Niña has been strengthening rapidly with Region 3.4 down to -1.5C per the CPC weeklies and lots more cooling to come this week with bubbles of extremely cold water surfacing in Region 1.2 and Region 3.4. The Pacific pattern looks downright ugly for the next 10 days with a big -PNA/western trough and a GoA low cutting off the cross-polar flow into the CONUS. I think we'll see some improvements in mid-late December, but I'm hardly excited about this winter. I went with 19" for NYC and am feeling more confident in that number despite the many aggressive/snowy forecasts we've seen in here, from people like Steve D.

Nate, yeah, and no one ever said it was going to be easy getting snow this winter. Strong La Nina's are plain and simple the least friendly ENSO state for our area. With that said, I still believe we'll have the best of what's possible with the worst this winter. In other words, a terrible Pacific, but an Atlantic that will help us w/ periods of wintry wx so we can achieve near normal snowfall values. Funny thing is, everything is on track w/ my outlook so far, poor north pacific (-PNA), and early signs of a winter potentially more blocky than most mod/strong Nina years. The magnitude of neg nao we're seeing this November was essentially non-existant in all mod/strong Nina's post the 1960s. We're very similar to a mid 50s styled nina regime right now, although the temp departure map for Nov won't respond as quickly since this neg nao event is coming on later.

Our area was able to reach the low-mid 20s snowfall wise in the Nina years of 1973-1976 (New Brunswick totals: 25", 21", and 25" respectively for those three years). And none of those winters featured a neg nao/ao to speak of. So right now at this early stage, I'm comfortable w/ my snowfall range of 25-32".

Looking ahead, the next 10 days look like garbage as we discussed. Pacific signal dominating regardless of the neg nao. However, I do think things will change post dec 5th (in our favor). The good news for us is climo sucks anyway prior to Dec 5th-10th, so what's the point of a wasted favorable pattern atm?

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mattinpa

mattinpa

Posted
Posted

Nate, yeah, and no one ever said it was going to be easy getting snow this winter. Strong La Nina's are plain and simple the least friendly ENSO state for our area. With that said, I still believe we'll have the best of what's possible with the worst this winter. In other words, a terrible Pacific, but an Atlantic that will help us w/ periods of wintry wx so we can achieve near normal snowfall values. Funny thing is, everything is on track w/ my outlook so far, poor north pacific (-PNA), and early signs of a winter potentially more blocky than most mod/strong Nina years. The magnitude of neg nao we're seeing this November was essentially non-existant in all mod/strong Nina's post the 1960s. We're very similar to a mid 50s styled nina regime right now, although the temp departure map for Nov won't respond as quickly since this neg nao event is coming on later.

Our area was able to reach the low-mid 20s snowfall wise in the Nina years of 1973-1976 (New Brunswick totals: 25", 21", and 25" respectively for those three years). And none of those winters featured a neg nao/ao to speak of. So right now at this early stage, I'm comfortable w/ my snowfall range of 25-32".

Looking ahead, the next 10 days look like garbage as we discussed. Pacific signal dominating regardless of the neg nao. However, I do think things will change post dec 5th (in our favor). The good news for us is climo sucks anyway prior to Dec 5th-10th, so what's the point of a wasted favorable pattern atm?

GFS continues to look good after the second lakes cutter - I agree that that timeframe is more favorable for snow anyway.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

GFS continues to look good after the second lakes cutter - I agree that that timeframe is more favorable for snow anyway.

Yeah, looks like it's almost a lock we get a decent sized Lakes-cutter mid next week, complete w/ an overnight surge to 60-65F possible on the morning of December 1st, before a gusty line of showers/T-storms bring us back down. We should have a lot of exciting cold frontal passages this winter w/ impressive wind events, usually the case in powerful ninas.

Thereafter, we probably see at least one more storm that favors the Lakes/NNE before the trough axis shifts far enough east to include the I-95 corridor for snow potential. Right now I think the second week of dec to mid month might be the time frame to monitor as we get closer.

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Guest Kramer

Guest Kramer

Posted
Posted

Yeah, looks like it's almost a lock we get a decent sized Lakes-cutter mid next week, complete w/ an overnight surge to 60-65F possible on the morning of December 1st, before a gusty line of showers/T-storms bring us back down. We should have a lot of exciting cold frontal passages this winter w/ impressive wind events, usually the case in powerful ninas.

Thereafter, we probably see at least one more storm that favors the Lakes/NNE before the trough axis shifts far enough east to include the I-95 corridor for snow potential. Right now I think the second week of dec to mid month might be the time frame to monitor as we get closer.

As painful as these lakes cutters are they do tend to serve a purpose as they help to eventually break down the pattern into something more favorable. I also anticipate we will finally see the NAO begin to dominate the pattern more across the EC as we get deeper into December and with these strong negative to neutral or neutral to negative jumps in both the NAO and PNA combined with nice snow cover of the NH, we could be looking at the something rather major in your timeframe.

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CooL

CooL

Posted
Posted

Sometimes I think the GFS is deliberately programmed to show a D11+ snowstorm for the east coast on every run.

Strongly agree. A few runs ago it was in the 260 hr range, now its in the 340's lol It is still there tho and its been there for quite a few days, a more favorable pattern in early december is what i am taking from this. Just took a quick look at the 00z euro, we torch day 5-8 thanks to a cutter setting up a ridge.

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tombo82685

tombo82685

Posted
Posted

0z euro may have the first shot of some wintry weather for the interior and esp maybe new england. Hr 240 shows a storm coming across central to souther indiana illinois and ohio. 850 line is just south of m/d line frz line is up around i80. Its close, it looks like with the amount of digging on the back end of the trof that its going to poke a ridge out ahead of it to screw ppl from from lehigh valley south. Its the first legit threat i have seen so far. Its a shame i can view the next 6 hrs to see what will happen. Anyways at day 10 there is a pos nao, looks to -epo and neutral to slightly pos pna

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mattinpa

mattinpa

Posted
Posted
<br />0z euro may have the first shot of some wintry weather for the interior and esp maybe new england. Hr 240 shows a storm coming across central to souther indiana illinois and ohio. 850 line is just south of m/d line frz line is up around i80. Its close, it looks like with the amount of digging on the back end of the trof that its going to poke a ridge out ahead of it to screw ppl from from lehigh valley south. Its the first legit threat i have seen so far. Its a shame i can view the next 6 hrs to see what will happen. Anyways at day 10 there is a pos nao, looks to -epo and neutral to slightly pos pna<br />

Hi, Tom - sounds better than the Euro has been? Anyway, the 6z GFS REALLY opens up the arctic floodgates.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Hi, Tom - sounds better than the Euro has been? Anyway, the 6z GFS REALLY opens up the arctic floodgates.

Right now one has to believe the GFS is too cold in the long range based on its performance the last few weeks.............

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