MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 12z GFS ensembles look great. Much colder than the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It only takes one spike in the PNA you keep pointing out is so negative to create quite a large EC storm in this pattern. AO and NAO are clearly going to be in strong negative territory and if the PNA spike or even a split flow develops with an active polar jet a storm could easily dump 12-15 across the area in the right setup. So that would leave about 5 inches to get for the REST of the winter and last I checked our snowiest times are still 2 months away. Get two storms back to back like the GFS ensembles are strongly hingting at? Well, you can do the math. The point is, before you start calling out other people's forecasts maybe we should not only let winter begin, but actually let it finish as well, since as the Chaos theory points out, if I release a butterfly outside your window in Westchester, metfan could have a blizzard over his house the next day. You don't get a lot of spikes in the PNA during a strong La Niña; that's why it's hard for I-95 to receive snow during this ENSO state. Your 12-15" snowstorm is pure imagination and not grounded in any evidence. Since 1950, NYC has only seen one major/historical snowstorm in a moderate/strong La Niña, which was March 1956. There's a reason we've only seen one big snowstorm in 60 years during winters with a similar ENSO state...the lack of a southern stream is a killer for major events. And the NAO is clearly trending back towards neutral on the CPC ensembles as well as the ECM: That storm would start out as snow and change to rain. The long range pattern after next week's lakes cutter is looking really good.Nice - EPO at the end of the run. Lets hope the Euro agrees with the GFS. It doesn't even matter since the storm is so far away, but it would be almost 100% rain for NYC 5 Boroughs. There are SE winds at the surface, which is an absolute disaster in early December. Not going to get in done. As much as I like snow, I know that that storm track is nothing to be excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I was talking to Rich Hoffman on Facebook and he thinks that we should watch out for the 1st week of December for our 1st snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 You don't get a lot of spikes in the PNA during a strong La Niña; that's why it's hard for I-95 to receive snow during this ENSO state. Your 12-15" snowstorm is pure imagination and not grounded in any evidence. Since 1950, NYC has only seen one major/historical snowstorm in a moderate/strong La Niña, which was March 1956. There's a reason we've only seen one big snowstorm in 60 years during winters with a similar ENSO state...the lack of a southern stream is a killer for major events. And the NAO is clearly trending back towards neutral on the CPC ensembles as well as the ECM: It doesn't even matter since the storm is so far away, but it would be almost 100% rain for NYC 5 Boroughs. There are SE winds at the surface, which is an absolute disaster in early December. Not going to get in done. As much as I like snow, I know that that storm track is nothing to be excited about. It would probably snow an inch, but then we would absolutely torch, and any snow would be a memory fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I was talking to Rich Hoffman on Facebook and he thinks that we should watch out for the 1st week of December for our 1st snowstorm. Jim Cantore told me the same thing on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 12z euro is still tranisent shots of cold with 2 lake cutters. Day 10 the pacific looks a little better, but the nao is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 12z euro is still tranisent shots of cold with 2 lake cutters. Day 10 the pacific looks a little better, but the nao is gone. This is from will. 12z Euro ensembles look good. Euro ensembles out to 216h....liking the look. Continues their theme of a -EPO/-PNA/-NAO look beginning to take shape around Dec 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 This is from will. 12z Euro ensembles look good. It really seems like the EURO op has not been as good after the "upgrade." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It really seems like the EURO op has not been as good after the "upgrade." The Euro didn't really do that well in the summer either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The Euro didn't really do that well in the summer either. I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It really seems like the EURO op has not been as good after the "upgrade." it still whooped the gfs on this cold shot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 it still whooped the gfs on this cold shot though. If I remember correctly, the Euro also showed a big cold shot after Thanksgiving. Maybe I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 it still whooped the gfs on this cold shot though. But the point is which run? It flips so much, so it becomes hard to trust. If the GFS was very consistent with something and was off by x # of degrees, it would be a lot easier just to take that model and compensate for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It seems like the euro and gfs have traded in which one is more reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 If I remember correctly, the Euro also showed a big cold shot after Thanksgiving. Maybe I am wrong. yes it did, but it wasnt as long lasting nor as cold. But the point is which run? It flips so much, so it becomes hard to trust. If the GFS was very consistent with something and was off by x # of degrees, it would be a lot easier just to take that model and compensate for it. Yea i agree there that it waffles a lot but what model hasn't in this pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It seems like the euro and gfs have traded in which one is more reliable. No they havent. The Euro is whipping the GFS's azz so far this cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Kramer Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It seems like the euro and gfs have traded in which one is more reliable. I wouldn't go that far, ECM still beats the GFS in overall verification, however, they do from time to time trade the top spot but its only for a hot minute usually. The euro had its fair share of cold solutions with regards to the Turkey day event HOWEVER it went warm and stayed warm first. Believe it or not, there was a time when the ECM only came out ONCE a day and then it really seemed unbeatable because it didn't have 12z/0Z flip flops. Imagine all the weenies now had to say up till 2AM to find out if the ECM destroyed their hopes of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 No they havent. The Euro is whipping the GFS's azz so far this warm season. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I wouldn't go that far, ECM still beats the GFS in overall verification, however, they do from time to time trade the top spot but its only for a hot minute usually. The euro had its fair share of cold solutions with regards to the Turkey day event HOWEVER it went warm and stayed warm first. Believe it or not, there was a time when the ECM only came out ONCE a day and then it really seemed unbeatable because it didn't have 12z/0Z flip flops. Imagine all the weenies now had to say up till 2AM to find out if the ECM destroyed their hopes of snow? The Euro looks like its going to lose verification points trying to retrograde the closed ridge back thru Baffin island. In spite of that though it opened up the Pacific and will end up being right even if initially for the wrong reason. I'm kind of ambivalent about the use of ensemble means. The Op Euro was not in sync with its ensemble mean going warm first and was right. Just talking off the top of my head sometimes I wonder if an fsu superensemble approach that is used for tropical systems would work better than running a bunch of similar (in physics) poorer resolution versions of the same op model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 If you think about it, do models really ever have consistency when pattern changes to winter/ or spring? Its repetitive and happens every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Kramer Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The Euro looks like its going to lose verification points trying to retrograde the closed ridge back thru Baffin island. In spite of that though it opened up the Pacific and will end up being right even if initially for the wrong reason. I'm kind of ambivalent about the use of ensemble means. The Op Euro was not in sync with its ensemble mean going warm first and was right. Just talking off the top of my head sometimes I wonder if an fsu superensemble approach that is used for tropical systems would work better than running a bunch of similar (in physics) poorer resolution versions of the same op model. totally agree as to ensembles, its hard to want to trust a blended mean of a lower resolution output, many times its just follow the leader. I remember last October with the storm that produced snow up in the hills of CT and into SNE and the GFS showed a crazy off run solution and ALL of its ensembles agreed with it. First reaction was to say, ok, OP can't be wrong, its got complete ensemble agreement, well, it was, and so were its ensembles. Granted, EURO ensembles are better resolution that GFS, but still poorer than EC, and still can be blind leading the blind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 totally agree as to ensembles, its hard to want to trust a blended mean of a lower resolution output, many times its just follow the leader. I remember last October with the storm that produced snow up in the hills of CT and into SNE and the GFS showed a crazy off run solution and ALL of its ensembles agreed with it. First reaction was to say, ok, OP can't be wrong, its got complete ensemble agreement, well, it was, and so were its ensembles. Granted, EURO ensembles are better resolution that GFS, but still poorer than EC, and still can be blind leading the blind. In the longer term (IMO), beyond day5 its probably best to use ensembles for overall pattern recognition and try not to validate or invalidate a specific model solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It really seems like the EURO op has not been as good after the "upgrade." Greg, I wish I could find a better graph, but just eyeballing a couple at the EMC site, my interpretation would be that the upgrade has not shown that much of an improvement, while the gfs has improved since its upgrade. There were some shaky solutions the Euro had this autumn (too far e with the tropical flooding rains, had a lakes cutter when the low went east of us among some), The graph is interesting as when the models go bad, they do tend to go bad in tandem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Kramer Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 In the longer term (IMO), beyond day5 its probably best to use ensembles for overall pattern recognition and try not to validate or invalidate a specific model solution. Or a Ouija board , whatever floats your boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Long range on the 18z is just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Long range on the 18z is just awful. No it isn't. Cold air looks to come down in the first week of December and stay here for a while. The NAO looks west based on the run. Not a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Ya i wouldn't say its awful. Still hinting at a storm off the coast, and then the cold air pours in afterwards. Of course this is 10 days + out but thats what the long range is showing on the 18z. Before that though, it is very awful, with a lakes cutter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Well, I consider "good" or "bad" on whether it shows snow verbatim. I'm not smart enough for the other stuff. There is a lot more than that. Ya i wouldn't say its awful. Still hinting at a storm off the coast, and then the cold air pours in afterwards. Of course this is 10 days + out but thats what the long range is showing on the 18z. Before that though, it is very awful, with a lakes cutter pattern. The Lakes Cutter next week changes the pattern to a more favorable one. The GFS ensembles, Euro ensembles and GGEM ensembles agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Storm is there..transfers a little too late and hence its a warmer storm..but i would not worry to much about details at this point and time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 No it isn't. Cold air looks to come down in the first week of December and stay here for a while. The NAO looks west based on the run. Not a bad run. what time frame is the west based block? Cause i dont see it in the gfs long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.