Guest PDIIREDUX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It was negative at times, but there were literally NO storms anywhere. That probably means no 50/50 low as well. There was a RAGING +AO along with an active sun IIRC too. Basically the opposite of what we could have this winter as they AO seems to go quite - in the near future and the sun isn't cooking our atmosphere right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It was negative at times, but there were literally NO storms anywhere. I had only 3.5 inches of snow that winter. All that snow came from 1 storm in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I had only 3.5 inches of snow that winter. All that snow came from 1 storm in January. And if you remember correctly, that storm was an underperformer too, and also happened in the middle of a warm pattern, so it melted fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 And if you remember correctly, that storm was an underperformer too, and also happened in the middle of a warm pattern, so it melted fast. Worst winter that I remember. Was that also a Strong La Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Worst winter that I remember. Was that also a Strong La Nina? At least it sucked on a regional-scale. The winters that make you cringe are the ones where you see a sharp snowfall gradient, you don't need to worry about it as much if you are north of 40N though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest PDIIREDUX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Worst winter that I remember. Was that also a Strong La Nina? no, basically La Nada, which meant no STJ and no active Polar Jet either. Basically it was the WORST possible enso state combined with the +AO. It was worth it for the 2002-2003 and my storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 no, basically La Nada, which meant no STJ and no active Polar Jet either. Basically it was the WORST possible enso state combined with the +AO. It was worth it for the 2002-2003 and my storm! 2002-2003 winter was a really good winter. Christmas storm and PD storm FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Worst winter that I remember. Was that also a Strong La Nina? Nope! It was Neutral! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 no, basically La Nada, which meant no STJ and no active Polar Jet either. Basically it was the WORST possible enso state combined with the +AO. It was worth it for the 2002-2003 and my storm! That's not a bad ENSO state at all really. There have been many good winters that were close to neutral! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Nope! It was Neutral! I heard that a lot of people predicted that winter to be cold and stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I heard that a lot of people predicted that winter to be cold and stormy. Yes, and that went along with JB's "vodka cold" , "Russian traffic cop", and other saying that I have thankfully forgtten about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest PDIIREDUX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Yes, and that went along with JB's "vodka cold" , "Russian traffic cop", and other saying that I have thankfully forgtten about. well, as you say, around neutral is good, but everything else went to the crapper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Yes, and that went along with JB's "vodka cold" , "Russian traffic cop", and other saying that I have thankfully forgtten about. War...Winter is Hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Yes, and that went along with JB's "vodka cold" , "Russian traffic cop", and other saying that I have thankfully forgtten about. JB also said this upcoming cold shot will be the coldest in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Long range on the 12z GFS doesn't look bad. There are a lot of possibilities after next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Well, it looks like the 12z wasn't a complete trainwreck, definitely more favorable than 06z. Storms threats are still there and the cold air has more staying power. Pesky Aleutian low is bleh hehing around near the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 2002-2003 winter was a really good winter. Christmas storm and PD storm FTW Don't forget 12/5/02 and the April snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 <br />Long range on the 12z GFS doesn't look bad. There are a lot of possibilities after next week. Our snowstorm is still a lakes cutter, but that can change back. Hope it's not a winter where we get cold but followed by rain all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Don't forget 12/5/02 and the April snowstorm. . I received 5 inches from the April snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Our big storm on the GFS is back....though this time it's a lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 <br /><br /><br /> Our snowstorm is still a lakes cutter, but that can change back. Hope it's not a winter where we get cold but followed by rain all the time. That storm would start out as snow and change to rain. The long range pattern after next week's lakes cutter is looking really good.Nice - EPO at the end of the run. Lets hope the Euro agrees with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 That storm would start out as snow and change to rain. The long range pattern after next week's lakes cutter is looking really good.Nice - EPO at the end of the run. Lets hope the Euro agrees with the GFS. Did the 00z Euro look better than it had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It was horrible. The ensembles looked better than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Right -- and that's the point I'm making. Just because there's a -NAO on the board doesn't mean guaranteed cold. 01-02 was the "cold is just 10 days away winter" and we kept seeing blocks show up on the mid/long range only to become east based for a while and then just a regular ol' torch. Obviously there are other factors going on this winter (Nina vs. Nada) but basically the point stands that just because a -NAO shows up on some chart doesn't mean the cold is locked or will be. The other factor too is that many events occur during pattern change times, so if you're staying locked into one pattern or another, its doing one no good. I also did a presentation at out winter weather workshop that nearly all of our massive winter events (10" or more) have occurred when the gwo has been in the upper half of the gwo phase diagram (When the relative aam is positive). If September were January, it would be a no go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 That's not a bad ENSO state at all really. There have been many good winters that were close to neutral! Enso neutral winters are really girl with the curls winters. For each 1993-94, there is a 1931-2. This is threading an outlook needle on a couple of levels, but enso neutral negative winters for bigger events is better than enso neutral positiv in PHL Number of 6 inch or greater single events since 1949-50: Enso Neutral.............21.............22 seasons Enso Neutral cool........15.............12 seasons Enso Neutral warm........5..............9 seasons Really Enso Neutral......1........... ..1 season Number of 10 inch or greater single events Enso Neutral........8.............22 seasons Enso Neutral cool...6.............12 seasons Enso Neutral warm...2..............9 seasons Really Enso Neutral.0..............1 season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Our snowstorm is still a lakes cutter, but that can change back. Hope it's not a winter where we get cold but followed by rain all the time. Long range expert Jim Witt's calendar is having an awesome year so far! Heavy storms 11/4-5 verified, fair and mild the last two days verified, rain 11/26 looks to verify, rain 12/1 looks to verify, and snow to rain 12/7-8? Says heavier snow more possible 12/12-13 FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Enso neutral winters are really girl with the curls winters. For each 1993-94, there is a 1931-2. That's because smaller things have a bigger impact on the winter with no impact from ENSO, I'm just saying that it's not entirely horrible. 1931-32 is a pretty good analog for 2001-02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 JB also said this upcoming cold shot will be the coldest in years. Yeah because JB has been right how many times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 There was a RAGING +AO along with an active sun IIRC too. Basically the opposite of what we could have this winter as they AO seems to go quite - in the near future and the sun isn't cooking our atmosphere right now. There's no doubt we'll go cold this winter at some point and those cold shots will be significant. This pattern, right now, does not support it. It may in time...but it may be later in December -- perhaps towards Christmas, before things tank. Look at the cold in the Northwest and Upper Midwest -- there's no doubt cold shots this winter will be forthcoming...it's not favorable for it at the moment as the pattern says SW flow and lakes cutter parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 There's no doubt we'll go cold this winter at some point and those cold shots will be significant. This pattern, right now, does not support it. It may in time...but it may be later in December -- perhaps towards Christmas, before things tank. Look at the cold in the Northwest and Upper Midwest -- there's no doubt cold shots this winter will be forthcoming...it's not favorable for it at the moment as the pattern says SW flow and lakes cutter parade. I don't even think we have to wait that long. Just a couple runs ago, the GFS was having a nor-easter. Let's see what develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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