MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 At least the GFS is still showing a storm threat around that time frame. Let's see if that continues as we get closer. The GFS has been signaling a storm around the first week of December for a while now. Maybe that will be our real first chance of cold air. Looks like the pattern is ****ty until the beginning of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 la la la lock it up http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_336s.gif Blizzard of 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The GFS has been signaling a storm around the first week of December for a while now. Maybe that will be our real first chance of cold air. Looks like the pattern is ****ty until the beginning of December. Hi! Looks like some chilly air for a few days starting around Thanksgiving.. then a warm up for 2-3 days (though not a torch.) Then, maybe we can get some snow. Interesting that the GFS has actually shown the same fantasy storm so much. I'll take the run for late-Nov. and early Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 For the first time in a long, long, long time (maybe ever). I am skeptical of seeing a bonafide KU event...... I don't know, maybe I need to get with it, and stop living in February 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 This is beautiful to look at. 0z GFS text soundings for NYC. At hour 324-336 Temps in the mid to upper 20's with 1.15 QPF. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=knyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Ok, so it's becoming apparent that the upcoming cold shot is transient and will end up much less impressive than depicted a week ago (at least by the GFS). While temperatures will be below average for Thanksgiving weekend, it's nothing extraordinary for sure. The 850's currently progged (if they don't get even warmer) would translate to about 45F for highs Fri-Sun, maybe a bit higher. Next week, we see the cold air quickly exit stage right and a massive low head for the Great Lakes. What seems to be happening here, at least IMO, is the neg NAO is essentially worthless at this time of year. The Pacific signalling is polar opposite of last winter (now against cold/snow lovers) and we've got models having a devil of a time deciphering the orientation and magnitude of the neg nao block (east, west based, weak, strong, etc). But the correlation of the NAO to sensible weather in the Northeast is still relatively low now, compared to DJF, especially after the first week or so of December. My thinking is we'll continue to see cold shots bouncing in and out of the East for at least the next 7-10 days or so, before we begin seeing the mean trough axis shift ewd. Each successive inland low should help pull the trough east, in conjunction w/ the developing neg nao/ao, so that by the end of the first week in December, we're fairly cool into the Northeast. Models aside, analogs for this year have and still suggest a colder than normal dec. Should be interesting to see how it plays out, but one thing I can say for sure - expect a lot of mood swings and winter cancellations in the next couple weeks, as cold air will be having a difficult time locking into the East in a sustained fashion. Once the nao/ao signalling begins exerting more influence on the pattern - at least enough to hold up a fight against the pacific - then we'll see more staying power to the polar air (which probably won't occur until dec 5th or after). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Hi! Looks like some chilly air for a few days starting around Thanksgiving.. then a warm up for 2-3 days (though not a torch.) Then, maybe we can get some snow. Interesting that the GFS has actually shown the same fantasy storm so much. I'll take the run for late-Nov. and early Dec. GFS is a torch for early next week...you get close to +10C 850s, which is way above average. Given the cloudiness at night, we could easily see some +15 departures with the airmass coming in Monday, assuming the cutter does form. November could end up above normal in temperatures despite the fact that the first week was -7F. Ok, so it's becoming apparent that the upcoming cold shot is transient and will end up much less impressive than depicted a week ago (at least by the GFS). While temperatures will be below average for Thanksgiving weekend, it's nothing extraordinary for sure. The 850's currently progged (if they don't get even warmer) would translate to about 45F for highs Fri-Sun, maybe a bit higher. Next week, we see the cold air quickly exit stage right and a massive low head for the Great Lakes. What seems to be happening here, at least IMO, is the neg NAO is essentially worthless at this time of year. The Pacific signalling is polar opposite of last winter (now against cold/snow lovers) and we've got models having a devil of a time deciphering the orientation and magnitude of the neg nao block (east, west based, weak, strong, etc). But the correlation of the NAO to sensible weather in the Northeast is still relatively low now, compared to DJF, especially after the first week or so of December. My thinking is we'll continue to see cold shots bouncing in and out of the East for at least the next 7-10 days or so, before we begin seeing the mean trough axis shift ewd. Each successive inland low should help pull the trough east, in conjunction w/ the developing neg nao/ao, so that by the end of the first week in December, we're fairly cool into the Northeast. Models aside, analogs for this year have and still suggest a colder than normal dec. Should be interesting to see how it plays out, but one thing I can say for sure - expect a lot of mood swings and winter cancellations in the next couple weeks, as cold air will be having a difficult time locking into the East in a sustained fashion. Once the nao/ao signalling begins exerting more influence on the pattern - at least enough to hold up a fight against the pacific - then we'll see more staying power to the polar air (which probably won't occur until dec 5th or after). Great post, Tom. I'm not really liking what I see lately...Niña has been strengthening rapidly with Region 3.4 down to -1.5C per the CPC weeklies and lots more cooling to come this week with bubbles of extremely cold water surfacing in Region 1.2 and Region 3.4. The Pacific pattern looks downright ugly for the next 10 days with a big -PNA/western trough and a GoA low cutting off the cross-polar flow into the CONUS. I think we'll see some improvements in mid-late December, but I'm hardly excited about this winter. I went with 19" for NYC and am feeling more confident in that number despite the many aggressive/snowy forecasts we've seen in here, from people like Steve D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 0z GFS ensembles also bring the cold air into the area around December 1. It also has a weak storm a long the coast during the week the op had the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 GFS is a torch for early next week...you get close to +10C 850s, which is way above average. Given the cloudiness at night, we could easily see some +15 departures with the airmass coming in Monday, assuming the cutter does form. November could end up above normal in temperatures despite the fact that the first week was -7F. Details like this are essentially useless but it does not look anywhere near a torch to my eyes..Temperatures between 40-50 and normal high temperature this time of the year is like 48 here @ KABE... Models are not handling anything well beyond 24 hours at this point so I really would not worry about the temperatures that its showing for next monday ...until Saturday or sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Details like this are essentially useless but it does not look anywhere near a torch to my eyes..Temperatures between 40-50 and normal high temperature this time of the year is like 48 here @ KABE... Models are not handling anything well beyond 24 hours at this point so I really would not worry about the temperatures that its showing for next monday ...until Saturday or sunday! I agree that models are switching around a lot but using the 2m temperatures isn't nearly as good as 850s. Also, you've got to account for warm nighttime temperatures with cloudy nights and 850s of nearly +10C. Most people should be getting into the 30s at night by late November and there's no way that would happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I agree that models are switching around a lot but using the 2m temperatures isn't nearly as good as 850s. Also, you've got to account for warm nighttime temperatures with cloudy nights and 850s of nearly +10C. Most people should be getting into the 30s at night by late November and there's no way that would happen here. Technically it's not a torch though with those daytime temps. Nighttime temps may make the days above average. I also am more optimistic about the pattern and the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 la la la lock it up http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_336s.gif Now we need some continued consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I agree that models are switching around a lot but using the 2m temperatures isn't nearly as good as 850s. Also, you've got to account for warm nighttime temperatures with cloudy nights and 850s of nearly +10C. Most people should be getting into the 30s at night by late November and there's no way that would happen here. Well you were not talking Wednesday..you were referencing monday and FWIW..the mean for 192 is colder.. There is no arguing that there will be a above normal surge ahead of the low, if it takes that track ...but at this range i would not put confidence in the 850s nor the 2 meter temps. I would not even put any faith in the track at this point and time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Also if , and i stress the word IF, the GFS is correct with these systems coming out of the south such as the one in the longer range at 324-336 hrs and then another reloading after that....this could be an indication that the southern stream is not going to be as inactive as some originally thought....I have issued my own winter forecast and whether it ends up right or wrong is to early for speculation but I am not seeing a blowtorch for winter ...just not sure where to post it ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Congrats to the Euro for being mostly right on the Thanksgiving battle. Had it not caved to the GFS for a couple of runs it would have been a very impressive coup since it was on its own and getting poo-poo'd by everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 There is one difference between this winter and the winter of 01/02. We actually have a -NAO now. We had one in December 01. How much snow and cold did you get? http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/nao.data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 0z euro was blah again, tranisent shot of cold air at best. Untill the pacific gets better imho expect more lake cutters and transient shots of cold and multiple 10-15 day snow event son the gfs that transpire into nothing down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Noreaster Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 We had one in December 01. How much snow and cold did you get? http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/nao.data Totally different atmospheric conditions in that winter, and IIRC that -NAO was not a west based block, something you can't see from the chart you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Noreaster Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 GFS is a torch for early next week...you get close to +10C 850s, which is way above average. Given the cloudiness at night, we could easily see some +15 departures with the airmass coming in Monday, assuming the cutter does form. November could end up above normal in temperatures despite the fact that the first week was -7F. Great post, Tom. I'm not really liking what I see lately...Niña has been strengthening rapidly with Region 3.4 down to -1.5C per the CPC weeklies and lots more cooling to come this week with bubbles of extremely cold water surfacing in Region 1.2 and Region 3.4. The Pacific pattern looks downright ugly for the next 10 days with a big -PNA/western trough and a GoA low cutting off the cross-polar flow into the CONUS. I think we'll see some improvements in mid-late December, but I'm hardly excited about this winter. I went with 19" for NYC and am feeling more confident in that number despite the many aggressive/snowy forecasts we've seen in here, from people like Steve D. It only takes one spike in the PNA you keep pointing out is so negative to create quite a large EC storm in this pattern. AO and NAO are clearly going to be in strong negative territory and if the PNA spike or even a split flow develops with an active polar jet a storm could easily dump 12-15 across the area in the right setup. So that would leave about 5 inches to get for the REST of the winter and last I checked our snowiest times are still 2 months away. Get two storms back to back like the GFS ensembles are strongly hingting at? Well, you can do the math. The point is, before you start calling out other people's forecasts maybe we should not only let winter begin, but actually let it finish as well, since as the Chaos theory points out, if I release a butterfly outside your window in Westchester, metfan could have a blizzard over his house the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 For what its worth - the 6z GFS loses the 12/6 fantasy snow storm completely - I myself still don't trust any model past 5 days in this pattern http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Nzucker ftw....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Totally different atmospheric conditions in that winter, and IIRC that -NAO was not a west based block, something you can't see from the chart you posted. Right -- and that's the point I'm making. Just because there's a -NAO on the board doesn't mean guaranteed cold. 01-02 was the "cold is just 10 days away winter" and we kept seeing blocks show up on the mid/long range only to become east based for a while and then just a regular ol' torch. Obviously there are other factors going on this winter (Nina vs. Nada) but basically the point stands that just because a -NAO shows up on some chart doesn't mean the cold is locked or will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Noreaster Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Right -- and that's the point I'm making. Just because there's a -NAO on the board doesn't mean guaranteed cold. 01-02 was the "cold is just 10 days away winter" and we kept seeing blocks show up on the mid/long range only to become east based for a while and then just a regular ol' torch. Obviously there are other factors going on this winter (Nina vs. Nada) but basically the point stands that just because a -NAO shows up on some chart doesn't mean the cold is locked or will be. 100% correct, NAO doesnt = snow and cold, the same way -PNA doesnt equal torch and wet. There are no pure meteoroligal equations because simply the atmosphere is way too complex for that and there are way too many variables. The big problem right now is that too much IT WILL BE this or IT HAS TO BE that being thrown around and way too much chest puffing. It goes both ways, too many people saying it HAS to get cold and the same amount of people saying IT WILL BE WARM. We are also still transitioning wavelengths, lets see what happens when we are actually into december and not just seeing it on a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Nzucker ftw....... He didn't win anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Right -- and that's the point I'm making. Just because there's a -NAO on the board doesn't mean guaranteed cold. 01-02 was the "cold is just 10 days away winter" and we kept seeing blocks show up on the mid/long range only to become east based for a while and then just a regular ol' torch. Obviously there are other factors going on this winter (Nina vs. Nada) but basically the point stands that just because a -NAO shows up on some chart doesn't mean the cold is locked or will be. Another big difference that winter... there were literally NO storms on the map in November. Totally different from what's going on right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Gah, I really didn't want early December to go to waste. It's not to late for things to shift back to our favor though. The -PNA needs to gtfo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Another big difference that winter... there were literally NO storms on the map in November. Totally different from what's going on right now! Was the NAO positive or negative in the 2001-2002 winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Was the NAO positive or negative in the 2001-2002 winter? It was negative at times, but there were literally NO storms anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It was negative at times, but there were literally NO storms anywhere. That probably means no 50/50 low as well, such a horrible winter....I remember it well. 2007-2008 was bad down here but it doesn't rival 2001-2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 That probably means no 50/50 low as well. Yeah, there were no storms to form a 50-50 low, and any storms that did exist were weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.