KEITH L.I Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 It is not climo in these parts, actually. November is one thing, December another. The 70s/80s in particular (the 90s as well, though) were likely the anomaly as opposed to the 2000s, when Decembers have gone back to their historical snow averages. The legit December average for NYC is probably around 6-7", not the 8" of the past decade nor the 1-2" of the 70s-90s. December in the 50's had very little snow too.The big December decades were the 40's,60's and 00's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Here we go again about snow and cold in late Nov and early Dec.I think many of you were spoiled by the last decade.it doesn't snow that much usually till the end of December.The decade of the 70's 80's and 90's featured very little snow till after Christmas.That's climo around these parts.I think sometime expectations are overblown because of the last decade. I'll take this, please. Early December storms FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 December in the 50's had very little snow too.The big December decades were the 40's,60's and 00's Nope. Image from YHBrooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Here we go again about snow and cold in late Nov and early Dec.I think many of you were spoiled by the last decade.it doesn't snow that much usually till the end of December.The decade of the 70's 80's and 90's featured very little snow till after Christmas.That's climo around these parts.I think sometime expectations are overblown because of the last decade. NYC decade snow averages... decade.......................Oct.....Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....Apr.....total 1870-71 to 1879-80......0.1.....0.9.....6.7......9.7......8.8.....4.1......1.6.....31.9 1880-81 to 1889-90........0......1.8.....7.1......8.8......7.6.....6.8......0.7.....32.8 1890-91 to 1899-00........0......3.3.....4.3......8.7....10.6.....7.1......0.8.....34.8 1900-01 to 1909-10........0......0.3.....6.2......9.1......9.2.....4.8......0.6.....30.2 1910-11 to 1919-20........0......0.2.....7.5......4.8......9.5.....8.3......2.3.....32.6 1920-21 to 1929-30......0.1.....0.1.....4.2......8.5....10.1.....2.2......0.9.....26.1 1930-31 to 1939-40........T......2.2.....4.3......6.4......8.5.....3.5......0.8.....25.7 1940-41 to 1949-50........T......0.6.....9.1......7.4......8.6.....4.8......1.1.....31.6 1950-51 to 1959-60......0.1.....0.5.....4.7......5.2......3.4.....8.0......0.8.....22.7 1960-61 to 1969-70........T......0.3.....7.4......7.7....10.6.....4.6......0.1.....30.7 1970-71 to 1979-80........T......0.3.....1.7......7.3......9.5.....2.4......0.1.....21.3 1980-81 to 1989-90........0......0.6.....2.1......7.8......5.3.....2.9......1.1.....19.8 1990-91 to 1999-00........0......0.3.....2.9......6.9......9.1.....5.4......0.2.....24.8 2000-01 to 2009-10........T........T......7.8......6.5....13.3.....3.5......0.4.....31.5 average.........................T......0.8.....5.4......7.5......8.9.....4.9......0.8.....28.3 last 30 years...................T......0.3.....4.3......7.1......9.2.....4.0......0.6.....25.4 from the 1970-71 winter to the 1999-00 one NYC averaged 2.2" for December...2000-2009 averaged 7.8"...long term average is 5.4" and the last 30 years is 4.3"...As a kid growing up December 10-12th usually had the first measurable snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Here we go again about snow and cold in late Nov and early Dec.I think many of you were spoiled by the last decade.it doesn't snow that much usually till the end of December.The decade of the 70's 80's and 90's featured very little snow till after Christmas.That's climo around these parts.I think sometime expectations are overblown because of the last decade. Maybe so, but the 70s-80s-90s are bad examples. They were extreme outliers below the curve for pre-winter snows compared to winters before (or since) that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 NYC decade snow averages... decade.......................Oct.....Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....Apr.....total 1870-71 to 1879-80......0.1.....0.9.....6.7......9.7......8.8.....4.1......1.6.....31.9 1880-81 to 1889-90........0......1.8.....7.1......8.8......7.6.....6.8......0.7.....32.8 1890-91 to 1899-00........0......3.3.....4.3......8.7....10.6.....7.1......0.8.....34.8 1900-01 to 1909-10........0......0.3.....6.2......9.1......9.2.....4.8......0.6.....30.2 1910-11 to 1919-20........0......0.2.....7.5......4.8......9.5.....8.3......2.3.....32.6 1920-21 to 1929-30......0.1.....0.1.....4.2......8.5....10.1.....2.2......0.9.....26.1 1930-31 to 1939-40........T......2.2.....4.3......6.4......8.5.....3.5......0.8.....25.7 1940-41 to 1949-50........T......0.6.....9.1......7.4......8.6.....4.8......1.1.....31.6 1950-51 to 1959-60......0.1.....0.5.....4.7......5.2......3.4.....8.0......0.8.....22.7 1960-61 to 1969-70........T......0.3.....7.4......7.7....10.6.....4.6......0.1.....30.7 1970-71 to 1979-80........T......0.3.....1.7......7.3......9.5.....2.4......0.1.....21.3 1980-81 to 1989-90........0......0.6.....2.1......7.8......5.3.....2.9......1.1.....19.8 1990-91 to 1999-00........0......0.3.....2.9......6.9......9.1.....5.4......0.2.....24.8 2000-01 to 2009-10........T........T......7.8......6.5....13.3.....3.5......0.4.....31.5 average.........................T......0.8.....5.4......7.5......8.9.....4.9......0.8.....28.3 last 30 years...................T......0.3.....4.3......7.1......9.2.....4.0......0.6.....25.4 from the 1970-71 winter to the 1999-00 one NYC averaged 2.2" for December...2000-2009 averaged 7.8"...long term average is 5.4" and the last 30 years is 4.3"...As a kid growing up December 10-12th usually had the first measurable snowfall... I guess I got so used to the December's of the 70's *80's and 90's that the snow from the 00's seemed unusual.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Maybe so, but the 70s-80s-90s are bad examples. They were extreme outliers below the curve for pre-winter snows compared to winters before (or since) that period. you remember the December's of the 70's 80's and 90's?..right?..could you imagine this board during those decades? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 December in the 50's had very little snow too.The big December decades were the 40's,60's and 00's As bad as the 50s were for snow, the big deficits were in the heart of winter, not at the edges. Marchs averaged pretty good, December wasn't nearly as bad as the 70s-80s-90s and we've experienced nothing like it since the 50s with regard to consistency of April snowfalls. 50s really were an odd decade snow wise, especially since some of the most snow-poor winters were rather cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 18z GFS keeps the storm threats in the December 3-7 time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 you remember the December's of the 70's 80's and 90's?..right?..could you imagine this board during those decades? Given that they tend to be nuttier than I ever was (on average) and I was so down on those winters...yeah, this board would be frightful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I'll take this, please. Early December storms FTW! Give me December 1947..... nearly 36 inches of snow in Morristown, New Jersey fell during December 25-27th, 1947. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 18z GFS keeps the storm threats in the December 3-7 time frame. Just awesome. Although the first one is rain, its just a parade of storms. Literally storm after storm, and you can see a 3rd one forming and ready to take the same track as the last one at 384. Fun times are ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'll take this, please. Early December storms FTW! It always baffles me that this wasn't NESIS categorized. In Philly it underperformed... just 4.8"... but almost everyone Trenton on north got 10" or more, with several 15-20" reports around NYC. http://www.njfreeway.../05-Dec-03.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It always baffles me that this wasn't NESIS categorized. Bruce fan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Hopefully the cold air comes in full blast along with the storms out in fantasy land on the GFS. Next week, we should be able to hone in on any potential threats, but the Euro and the GFS have to get the synoptic set up down before we can have some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Bruce fan? why yes sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 why yes sir Did you get the new record release? 70 bucks well spent.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Did you get the new record release? 70 bucks well spent.. I just got the new releases. I listen to so many of the bootlegs on SIRIUS that I didn't think the DVD would be worth it. I could be wrong though... Normally I'd say we ought to take this to PM but you're a mod so whatever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 18z GFS looks really nice in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 18z GFS looks really nice in the long range. Like someone else said, this may be the winter of ten days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It always baffles me that this wasn't NESIS categorized. According to my Kocin/Uccellini Northeast Snowstorms book, it was rated 4.63 on the NESIS scale (Category 3). Then when I look for it on lists of all NESIS storms and their ratings it isn't there. Strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 According to my Kocin/Uccellini Northeast Snowstorms book, it was rated 4.63 on the NESIS scale (Category 3). Then when I look for it on lists of all NESIS storms and their ratings it isn't there. Strange. Yeah I think its the only main "case study" in the Kocin book that is not on the NESIS site. I'm not sure why that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 0z GFS shows an ugly pattern for the rest of November. The pattern gets much better as December rolls around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Some southern stream energy at Hour 300 on the 0z GFS. La Ninas don't really have a pumped up STJ. Only 300 hours out though, so whatever. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I and Ant are on the Ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Like someone else said, this may be the winter of ten days away. There is one difference between this winter and the winter of 01/02. We actually have a -NAO now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 At least the GFS is still showing a storm threat around that time frame. Let's see if that continues as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Another beauty. 3 runs in a row now with a nice storm in the long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 la la la lock it up http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_336s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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