The Winter 2010-11 NYC/PHL Medium Range Thread

[MJO812]

0z Euro ensembles.

Good thing is that the 6z GFS wasn't as bad as the 0z GFS.

We still have -NAO and -AO going forward.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

[earthlight]

0z Euro ensembles.

The thing is, you can't really look at these charts for an accurate depiction of what's unfolding. The NAO may be negative, but severely east based which in this scenario wouldn't help us worth jack. That chart can't tell you where the NAO block/ridge is positioned, or it's strength. In the case of the 00z Euro, the NAO may be negative, but it's so east based that it does nothing to help us. The 12z Euro NAO was also negative, but in a much more productive, Baffin Island block-type fashion.

So those are things that are definitely more important to look for than the NAO algorithm charts/etc.

[MJO812]

I wouldn't be shocked if January and February turn out colder than December. It looks like the La Nina is starting to weaken. LC and DT commented on this. DT said last night in his daily radio show that he sees some signs of weakening. He also said that if it does continue to weaken, all the warm forecasts for the 2nd half of winter would be in big trouble. LC thinks that the 2nd half of winter will be colder than the 1st half.Interesting.

The thing is, you can't really look at these charts for an accurate depiction of what's unfolding. The NAO may be negative, but severely east based which in this scenario wouldn't help us worth jack. That chart can't tell you where the NAO block/ridge is positioned, or it's strength. In the case of the 00z Euro, the NAO may be negative, but it's so east based that it does nothing to help us. The 12z Euro NAO was also negative, but in a much more productive, Baffin Island block-type fashion.

So those are things that are definitely more important to look for than the NAO algorithm charts/etc.

Yep, an east based NAO isn't good at all for the area. The models are still at war with each other. Hopefully once the Turkey day storm passes, the models get a little better.

[Guest Kramer]

The thing is, you can't really look at these charts for an accurate depiction of what's unfolding. The NAO may be negative, but severely east based which in this scenario wouldn't help us worth jack. That chart can't tell you where the NAO block/ridge is positioned, or it's strength. In the case of the 00z Euro, the NAO may be negative, but it's so east based that it does nothing to help us. The 12z Euro NAO was also negative, but in a much more productive, Baffin Island block-type fashion.

So those are things that are definitely more important to look for than the NAO algorithm charts/etc.

Yup, made this point a few pages back that you must look at the 500MB charts to really know what is going on. Those blue charts only give a clue as to whether the particular index will rise or fall.

[Weathergun]

The thing is, you can't really look at these charts for an accurate depiction of what's unfolding. The NAO may be negative, but severely east based which in this scenario wouldn't help us worth jack. That chart can't tell you where the NAO block/ridge is positioned, or it's strength. In the case of the 00z Euro, the NAO may be negative, but it's so east based that it does nothing to help us. The 12z Euro NAO was also negative, but in a much more productive, Baffin Island block-type fashion.

So those are things that are definitely more important to look for than the NAO algorithm charts/etc.

I agree. I like to look at the maps more than those graphs. They tell you nothing about how the features line up.

[forkyfork]

the post thanksgiving cold pattern is gone

blame the pacific

[Riptide]

the post thanksgiving cold pattern is gone

blame the pacific

Not overly upset about it as I recall someone saying, "below-average November is a kiss of death".

Looks like the NE gets a decent amount of cold air.

[ag3]

According to GFS, post T-day is frigid up thru the 1st week of December and beyond. But GFS is laughable at this point, with how much its jumping.

[MJO812]

Congrats everyone.

[Riptide]

According to GFS, post T-day is frigid up thru the 1st week of December and beyond. But GFS is laughable at this point, with how much its jumping.

Several storm threats and how are the ensembles doing?

[soadforecaster]

idk, i95 cities should deff worry they are going to be close

[forkyfork]

day 10 euro op and ensemble mean... looks similar to me

[MJO812]

idk, i95 cities should deff worry they are going to be close

Not with a storm that big. The heights would crash. It's 360 hours out, so why are we arguing about a storm this far out.

[soadforecaster]

Not with a storm that big. The heights would crash. It's 360 hours out, so why are we arguing about a storm this far out.

lol good question, i mean i could pick this storm apart as to why it may or may not happen, just trying to have something to talk about.

[jrodd321]

idk, i95 cities should deff worry they are going to be close

STFU!

Omg that is a beauty.

[ag3]

STFU!

Omg that is a beauty.

Yeah seriously. That storm is classic. No way that is rain for anyone; except maybe eastern LI.

Its all in fun though as this has almost 0 chance of verifying.

[Riptide]

Yeah seriously. That storm is classic. No way that is rain for anyone; except maybe eastern LI.

Its all in fun though as this has almost 0 chance of verifying.

There will probably be a storm in the general area but the details remain unknown. The real cold air is still firmly advancing for the first week of December.

[soadforecaster]

STFU!

Omg that is a beauty.

my friend you know im joking, idk why anyone is taking this storm seriously anyway. its the pattern we need to look out for, not storms at this point in time.

[RowanBrandon]

Always love me some weather porn in the morning.

[phlwx]

idk, i95 cities should deff worry they are going to be close

lol...the cold is just 10 days away this winter and the snow is just 14 days away.

[jrodd321]

lol...the cold is just 10 days away this winter and the snow is just 14 days away.

Better than 15.

[MJO812]

Always love me some weather porn in the morning.

Better than regular porn

[Snowlover11]

Better than regular porn

disagree. Well sometimes

[Dsnowx53]

It looks like we're gonna have to take another step down before we can go back up. I don't think we can realistically expect any snow, if at all, until December 5th.

It might be better that we are using a poor climo period as a "step down to go back up" period, rather than waste a good pattern on it.

[jrodd321]

It looks like we're gonna have to take another step down before we can go back up. I don't think we can realistically expect any snow, if at all, until December 5th.

It might be better that we are using a poor climo period as a "step down to go back up" period, rather than waste a good pattern on it.

That is exactly how I feel!

[MJO812]

Too bad there was an east based NAO on the 12z run because the NAO actually looks stronger on that run then it was on the 0z run.

[forkyfork]

the big thanksgiving cold outbreak lasts two and a half days on the 12z euro

enjoy!

[KEITH L.I]

Here we go again about snow and cold in late Nov and early Dec.I think many of you were spoiled by the last decade.it doesn't snow that much usually till the end of December.The decade of the 70's 80's and 90's featured very little snow till after Christmas.That's climo around these parts.I think sometime expectations are overblown because of the last decade.

[MJO812]

the big thanksgiving cold outbreak lasts two and a half days on the 12z euro

enjoy!

Thanks Forky.

Here we go again about snow and cold in late Nov and early Dec.I think many of you were spoiled by the last decade.it doesn't snow that much usually till the end of December.The decade of the 70's 80's and 90's featured very little snow till after Christmas.That's climo around these parts.I think sometime expectations are overblown because of the last decade.

A lot of people on this board thinks January and February will be really warm.

[Nikolai]

Here we go again about snow and cold in late Nov and early Dec.I think many of you were spoiled by the last decade.it doesn't snow that much usually till the end of December.The decade of the 70's 80's and 90's featured very little snow till after Christmas.That's climo around these parts.I think sometime expectations are overblown because of the last decade.

It is not climo in these parts, actually. November is one thing, December another.

The 70s/80s in particular (the 90s as well, though) were likely the anomaly as opposed to the 2000s, when Decembers have gone back to their historical snow averages. The legit December average for NYC is probably around 6-7", not the 8" of the past decade nor the 1-2" of the 70s-90s.