mattinpa Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 How was the GFS that bad?? Yes, it got milder VERY late in the run, but much of the run was cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 After Thanksgiving, 0z GFS ensemble mean is much colder than the op throughout the whole run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 After Thanksgiving, 0z GFS ensemble mean is much colder than the op throughout the whole run. Good sign. Ensembles tend to be a useful in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 How was the GFS that bad?? Yes, it got milder VERY late in the run, but much of the run was cold. It essentially took two chances at a snow event away..so that would be counted as bad...it was also not as cold as prior runs were... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 How was the GFS that bad?? Yes, it got milder VERY late in the run, but much of the run was cold. The NAO never gets west-based so the 50/50 low cannot move into a confluent position. That guarantees the storm will cut. Then no real cold in North America with a +EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 It essentially took two chances at a snow event away..so that would be counted as bad...it was also not as cold as prior runs were... I just expected a torch throughout when I looked at the board - LOL. It attempts to get something going with the cold air, but gets suppressed. Anyway, there will be flips, and Snow11's ensembles update was a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Still cold air, but not as long lasting. Look at these heights: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_300l.gif For this time of year, I'd call it an ok but not as good run. There will be switches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 NAO 0z GFS 0z GFS ensemble mean Big difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 NAO 0z GFS Big difference Yeah the op really uses the PV to shear it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Yeah the op really uses the PV to shear it out. Good to see a good outcome on the ensembles. That tells you that the op run is bull****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Yeah the op really uses the PV to shear it out. The OP GFS is still as inconsistent as it gets...doesn't matter how many upgrades they give the model. It still uses a largely inferior initialization to the international globals..it will never be up to par with them in all likelihood. Over the past few years I have become extremely frustrated with the GFS as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Agreed. Everything has been jumping around like crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Regardless of model swings, snowcover has recovered and is now likely back above normal. Yesterday's: Todays: And yesterday's anomaly chart... already normal-ish, with the deficit almost gone now in Western Russia, we should be above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Interesting pics there Nikolai. We need everything we can get. I figured a few months back the GFS will become much less consistent due to changing patterns/seasons like it does every year. The only think you can take from model runs right now is its going to be a long winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 0z Euro for 0z Sunday. Brrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Euro has flipped this run..the big ridge over Greenland is gone..at least at Day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Euro has flipped this run..the big ridge over Greenland is gone..at least at Day 7 I feel like ensembles are the way to go right now... both the GFS and EURO have been atrocious outside of the immediate short-range the past several days, and they seem to want to keep acting neurotic. Very frustrating, to say the least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Euro has flipped this run..the big ridge over Greenland is gone..at least at Day 7 yup through hr 180 its just basically a north atlantic ridge/east based nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 yup through hr 180 its just basically a north atlantic ridge/east based nao. GFS also trended further east with the block on the 0z OP run...wasn't nearly west-based enough to give us a shot at snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 best way to sum up the 0z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 best way to sum up the 0z euro Stop stealing pics from the mid atlantic wx conference during the winter of 2001-2002 please...those are copyrighted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Ouch...both the euro and gfs abandoned ship at 00z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Major ouch on the EURO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 we just dont get the closed off block, which is forming over Greenland as we speak, to retrograde to the west on this euro run or the recent gfs runs in the long range. What a difficult pattern for the models though any time you have the potential for a blocky setup like this.. Trying not to get too connected to any particular model run at this juncture still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Its just one of those set of models runs where you just go to bed and hope you wake up to a better set of runs at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I hate saying this, but at the end of the day, it is November and climatology ought to win out eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 JB is piling up on the antacids after those 00Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 JB is piling up on the antacids after those 00Z runs. Can't trust any model past 5 days in this blocky - NAO changing pattern - guaranteed JB will whip up a potential snowstorm for the east coast during the 1st week in December..................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Major ouch on the EURO: More like major LOL...Euro ensembles are much colder almost looks like an inland runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Gotta get through the Thanksgiving storm before we have an idea of what (if any) blocking takes shape and where it sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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