Chris L Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 It will snow again, of course. Just not the 2 foot blizzard we all crave for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Ant, i thought you said you hated snow. I'm a winter weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I'm a winter weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Noreaster Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Yes, it is unusual, although 55-56 was a strong Niña winter with good blocking, so it's not unprecedented. I think people have become accustomed to the idea of strong La Niña=no blocking because of winters like 98-99 and 99-00. The problem is getting the Pacific to cooperate which it doesn't want to do in the extended range modeling. Great block over Greenland but the trough over AK and the PAC NW is just brutal for snow and cold chances here. We know, you have posted it over and over in the main forum, the sne forum, and now in the nyc forum. We also know your prediction for the winter was warm and snowless, but repeating how the pattern won't be good for cold and snow isn't going to make your forecast verify any more than it would have normally. That being said, you cannot under estimated a strong greenland block combined with a -AO. All it takes is for one short wave to drop into the eastern trough with borderline temps and you have got yourself quite a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Did anybody catch the 00z CMC? You can never have enough blocking/confluence, but wow, for December 1st that is some really fresh cold air (-10c H85 temps) in New England and a pretty strong shortwave digging over Oklahoma. Fantasy, but fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Noreaster Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Did anybody catch the 00z CMC? You can never have enough blocking/confluence, but wow, for December 1st that is some really fresh cold air (-10c H85 temps) in New England and a pretty strong shortwave digging over Oklahoma. Fantasy, but fun to look at. almost looks like a rex block over central canada combined with a -NAO! That would certainly keep anything from cutting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 now that has a good look, a strong vortmax digging toward the plains states on the CMC. If only it wasn't so many days away here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 12 euro has a big block while the gfs loses it. Model wars at full extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 12 euro has a big block while the gfs loses it. Model wars at full extreme. Nothing new there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 ECMWF: Day 9-10, sfc low is in the Great Lakes. But I really wouldn't worry. Something gonna go in the pattern couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 In the 240 hr range, the euro has a cutter but has secondary development off the mid atlantic coast - atleast its something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The 12z Euro might be driving a system into the Lakes...but it's got an extremely favorable pattern around D10. Global ensemble means spike the PNA to neutral or slightly positive around that time...which when combined with the huge block showing up on the ECMWF could lead to a period favorable for snowstorm development...potentially in Early December which many have alluded to for weeks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The 12z Euro might be driving a system into the Lakes...but it's got an extremely favorable pattern around D10. Global ensemble means spike the PNA to neutral or slightly positive around that time...which when combined with the huge block showing up on the ECMWF could lead to a period favorable for snowstorm development...potentially in Early December which many have alluded to for weeks now. Just such a convoluted pattern early this winter when we're dealing with a potentially record La Niña and off-the-charts NAO/AO blocking. The models have completely switched sides now with the ECM being colder and the GFS favoring a quick return to above average temperatures, the exact opposite of what was shown a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The 12z Euro might be driving a system into the Lakes...but it's got an extremely favorable pattern around D10. Global ensemble means spike the PNA to neutral or slightly positive around that time...which when combined with the huge block showing up on the ECMWF could lead to a period favorable for snowstorm development...potentially in Early December which many have alluded to for weeks now. Agree John. That Decmber 5th-15th period has been on the radar for quite awhile now. Exact details WRT block orientation and duration are still anyone's guess, but I'd say it's a virtual lock we get a strongly negative NAO/AO for at least 7-10 days. Even with an unfavorable north pacific initially, we'll see significant improvement in the PNA by early December. As usual models have been anything but consistent in the medium to long range, so I wouldn't concern myself w/ run to run shifts (it'll drive anyone insane). The main point is we're gradually transitioning into a pattern more favorable for sustained cold in the Northeast, and potentially snow. Yes, that may take a couple Lakes-cutters to get us there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 12z euro ensembles are really cold in the long range. Really nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Just such a convoluted pattern early this winter when we're dealing with a potentially record La Niña and off-the-charts NAO/AO blocking. The models have completely switched sides now with the ECM being colder and the GFS favoring a quick return to above average temperatures, the exact opposite of what was shown a couple days ago. GFS switching to above average temperatures? For what period? Are you referring to the day or two of warmth right before it gets cold from 12/1 till the end of the run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 GFS switching to above average temperatures? For what period? Are you referring to the day or two of warmth right before it gets cold from 12/1 till the end of the run? Yeah it switches to warmth like Day 7-10 and then drops the hammer. ECM is cold in those days when it initially had the warm-up. Model wars continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 We know, you have posted it over and over in the main forum, the sne forum, and now in the nyc forum. We also know your prediction for the winter was warm and snowless, but repeating how the pattern won't be good for cold and snow isn't going to make your forecast verify any more than it would have normally. That being said, you cannot under estimated a strong greenland block combined with a -AO. All it takes is for one short wave to drop into the eastern trough with borderline temps and you have got yourself quite a storm. I never forecasted a warm and snowless winter...I actually predicted a cold and snowy December for the most part with most areas around NYC just below average for the winter on snowfall. I know how important the -NAO is. If you actually read my winter forecast, you would know what I think. I just believe some are hyping the pattern a little bit much but I recognize we have some unusual blocking in the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The 18z ensemble mean is colder than the op for the storm during the first week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The 18z ensemble mean is colder than the op for the storm during the first week of December. The 18z GFS storm that starts hour 216 is Nov.29th-Nov.30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The 18z GFS storm that starts hour 216 is Nov.29th-Nov.30th. That's meteorological December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Cantore tweeted @hpNYR (me) telling me some winter precip possible during the tree lighting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Euro D9 - D10 Cant post 'em but 12z Euro 850 maps show strong cold air building down into the midwest and great lakes where it is ready to blast east on/around 12/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Noreaster Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I never forecasted a warm and snowless winter...I actually predicted a cold and snowy December for the most part with most areas around NYC just below average for the winter on snowfall. I know how important the -NAO is. If you actually read my winter forecast, you would know what I think. I just believe some are hyping the pattern a little bit much but I recognize we have some unusual blocking in the picture. I am sure you will continuously remind us of your winter forecast every chance you get so no reason to go re-read it Fact of the matter is NO one knows what a 3-4SD below normal -AO and at least 3SD below normal -NAO combined with a upper moderate la nina and -pna will do. you keep saying the forecast pattern won't produce cold and it absolutely can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Euro D9 - D10 Cant post 'em but 12z Euro 850 maps show strong cold air building down into the midwest and great lakes where it is ready to blast east on/around 12/2. What a sweet look. It's too bad the models have been flip flopping like a fish out of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I am sure you will continuously remind us of your winter forecast every chance you get so no reason to go re-read it Fact of the matter is NO one knows what a 3-4SD below normal -AO and at least 3SD below normal -NAO combined with a upper moderate la nina and -pna will do. you keep saying the forecast pattern won't produce cold and it absolutely can. You were definitely banned at Eastern. Don't muck up this thread with garbage and sarcastic confrontational crap. I'm tired of people saying our region sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Noreaster Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 i dont remember who but someone posted a few days ago that if you get a miller b with such a strong block there is a good chance it gets captured and stalls i could see something like that happening with an H5 map like the euro shows lets hope the cold air is timed right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 What a sweet look. It's too bad the models have been flip flopping like a fish out of water. The only thing thats been consistent is the signal for a storm in the 11/30 - 12/2 period and strong blocking through the next 10 days. I'd lean with the colder guidance with the blocking thats prog'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 i dont remember who but someone posted a few days ago that if you get a miller b with such a strong block there is a good chance it gets captured and stalls i could see something like that happening with an H5 map like the euro shows lets hope the cold air is timed right You know, its funny, we all wish for the Miller A Bomb, but they are tougher to stall and capture since the precip shield is so expansive. Miller B can get captured and stall better than Miller A (See the blizzard of 1978) and can dump feet of snow if all goes right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 0z GFS is a disaster. What a mess throughout the whole run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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