tombo82685 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 The block by Greenland is rapidly exiting stage north and if there was a 270 hour depiction there would be a raging +NAO...there would be a cold blast into the east likely at Day 12-15 or so once that cutter moved into Canada but it would rapidly move out and there would be some sort of blowtorch after that across most of the nation if that evolution on the Euro were to be correct....moderate to strong La Ninas just suck, a -NAO can go a long way to decreasing the impacts but -NAOs just seem hard to come by during those sort of La Ninas. wes and hm are saying that post day 10 looks very interesting or atleas the first 10 or so days of december. The euro ens show one heck of a block post day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 my bad, you're right im wrong. -ao canda and arctic bakes whille we are cold. Pos ao canada and arctic is cold and we are warm. Yes, this is correct. However, I think the main problem with the pattern on the Day 10 Euro is the Pacific, not the AO. There's actually quite a lot of cold air being released into the mid-latitudes, for example Northern Europe, so this isn't a problem with a raging +AO keeping the arctic cold and warming everyone up. The issue is that there's a big GoA low, also known as a +EPO pattern; this vortex over Alaska is preventing any cold air from moving into Canada and the United States. What the GoA low does is blast southerly flow across Canada and the US, warming these areas up, while the cold air associated with the polar vortex (ECM has 850mb temps around -40C in Siberia) is moved into Asia. Here is my interpretation of the Day 10 ECM (12z run): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 1st week of December looks interesting on the 0z GFS. The southern stream is in action on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 1st week of December looks interesting on the 0z GFS. The southern stream is in action on the 0z GFS. The 2 storm threats that 12z were showing are shiattttt on the 00z tonight though. 1st one too warm, second to the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The 2 storm threats that 12z were showing are shiattttt on the 00z tonight though. 1st one too warm, second to the lakes. It looked like a Miller A was developing for storm 2, and then it splits up. I think it could be fun to watch at the least. Just hope the Euro gets back on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The 2 storm threats that 12z were showing are shiattttt on the 00z tonight though. 1st one too warm, second to the lakes. john, i wouldn't worry about the outcome right now. The first week of december has a couple threats being shown, and thats how you should take it. The gfs still has a very healthy block up during that timeframe. So its going to waffle back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Miller A aren't happening unless we get the Polar Jet to truly dig far south (a la Jan 1996), and form a Gulf Low. Get the Miller B train cranking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 john, i wouldn't worry about the outcome right now. The first week of december has a couple threats being shown, and thats how you should take it. The gfs still has a very healthy block up during that timeframe. So its going to waffle back and forth. Yea true true, I was just pointing it out. That first week is looking active though, and that's all we can ask for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 0z euro looks like it trended more towards the gfs in developing a stronger 50/50 low that gets stuck under the block keeping the northern mid atlantic and northeast cold. The only problem is, well what it looks to me is a -pna in response to a goa low. Which is not allowing the deep trof the gfs has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 the oz euro mighthave the most epic west based -nao block i have ever seen, It retrogrades it from greenland then centers it over baffin island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 the oz euro mighthave the most epic west based -nao block i have ever seen, It retrogrades it from greenland then centers it over baffin island. So then Euro is showing life again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 So then Euro is showing life again? yea post day 10 looks interesting, a severly west based neg nao is in place and a storm is sitting over the boot of missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 yea post day 10 looks interesting, a severly west based neg nao is in place and a storm is sitting over the boot of missouri Sounds GFS like with the southern stream getting a little more active.. Good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Miller A aren't happening unless we get the Polar Jet to truly dig far south (a la Jan 1996), and form a Gulf Low. Get the Miller B train cranking.... Yep...better hope they form far enough south to give everyone a piece of the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Miller A aren't happening unless we get the Polar Jet to truly dig far south (a la Jan 1996), and form a Gulf Low. Get the Miller B train cranking.... The 06Z GFS is more Miller B like...the 00Z GFS is more just a busted primary-secondary low transformation...I never like seeing these refusing to lose grip primary lows early on in the season, that was what plagued the NE so much during the 08-09 winter....many cases where the primary lows hung on amazingly long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The 06Z GFS is more Miller B like...the 00Z GFS is more just a busted primary-secondary low transformation...I never like seeing these refusing to lose grip primary lows early on in the season, that was what plagued the NE so much during the 08-09 winter....many cases where the primary lows hung on amazingly long. I wouldn't trust any model solution in regards to the track of low pressure past 3 - 5 days in this pattern its obvious the models are not able to handle the fine tuning of this pattern at the moment..............Only thing that has been stable in the models is the -NAO at various levels forcasted to continue at least through the first week of December..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Kramer Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Sounds GFS like with the southern stream getting a little more active.. Good sign. are you talking about the STJ? If so, the STJ is dormant right now, so thats not it. What you are seeing in the polar jet digging pretty far south or a vort splitting off the jet. Both are good if you want to get an EC storm in a Nina pattern, but be careful in how you describe it, because that isn't the STJ. here is a map, as you can see, there is nothing doing with the STJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 FWIW, the GFS caves to the Euro WRT timing for the Thanksgiving storm...front now looks to move through early Black Friday...could see 50's from NYC south in AM with falling temps in PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 NAO http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Crashing to -4 AO http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Crashing to -4/-5 Is this unusual for a strong La Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 NAO http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif Crashing to -4 AO http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif Crashing to -4/-5 Is this unusual for a strong La Nina? Yes, it is unusual, although 55-56 was a strong Niña winter with good blocking, so it's not unprecedented. I think people have become accustomed to the idea of strong La Niña=no blocking because of winters like 98-99 and 99-00. The problem is getting the Pacific to cooperate which it doesn't want to do in the extended range modeling. Great block over Greenland but the trough over AK and the PAC NW is just brutal for snow and cold chances here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 12z GFS looks horrible after the quick cold shot after Thanksgiving. Model wars FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 12z GFS looks horrible after the quick cold shot after Thanksgiving. Model wars FTL. thats because it lost the 50/50 low it previously had. Without that feature no arctic air can be entrenched into the n mid atl and norteast. It puts to much emphasis on the primary going to the great lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Magic date http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_324l.gif thats because it lost the 50/50 low it previously had. Without that feature no arctic air can be entrenched into the n mid atl and norteast. It puts to much emphasis on the primary going to the great lakes. The pattern gets better in the first week of December. The models are going to flip flop plenty of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Magic date http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_324l.gif The pattern gets better in the first week of December. The models are going to flip flop plenty of times. i would take that with a grain of salt. Just like it showed it to be great after t giving with prolonged cold, well that got dwindled. To much volatility in the pattern to really care much of anything outside 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 thats because it lost the 50/50 low it previously had. Without that feature no arctic air can be entrenched into the n mid atl and norteast. It puts to much emphasis on the primary going to the great lakes. Is it ever going to snow again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 i would take that with a grain of salt. Just like it showed it to be great after t giving with prolonged cold, well that got dwindled. To much volatility in the pattern to really care much of anything outside 5 days. I know that. I was just posting that for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I know that. I was just posting that for fun. yea i know, it does look really nice though. We just need the pacific to cooperate, thats whats killing the cold for us, stupid -pna and goa low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Is it ever going to snow again? eventually lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Is it ever going to snow again? Hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Hopefully Ant, i thought you said you hated snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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