ag3 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 While a little warm, the 12z GGEM hours 150-168 is interesting, with regards to track of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Im with Sundog, I rather just look out the window at this point. One day you have something, the next you don't. Just do yourself a favor and don't take every model run like it's your last resort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Im with Sundog, I rather just look out the window at this point. One day you have something, the next you don't. Just do yourself a favor and don't take every model run like it's your last resort. Exactly. As Analog said, in this type of pattern, with so many players on the map, so much confusion, we wont really have a solution until inside of 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Where do you see highs in the 40s after Thanksgiving? If 510dm heights produce highs in the 40s (which I am sure he means high 40s because low 40's are almost 10 degrees below normal) then we'll never get cold in here. 1) We weren't looking at 510 thicknesses on the GFS last night...hence my comment, made before the 12z run came out. Look at the date/time of the post, folks. 2) Low 40's along I-95 at the end of November really isn't unseasonable cold to begin with...it's definitely below average though (which I think I mentioned). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 1) We weren't looking at 510 thicknesses on the GFS last night...hence my comment, made before the 12z run came out. Look at the date/time of the post, folks. 2) Low 40's along I-95 at the end of November really isn't unseasonable cold to begin with...it's definitely below average though (which I think I mentioned). In response to #2 you're correct but mid to upper 30's is unseasonably cold (15-20 degrees below normal) which 510dm could easily produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Gees models are all over the place with the middle of next week. Do we get a cold front Tuesday night and more frontal waves into Friday? do we get one big cf on wednesday or Thanksgiving?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 1) We weren't looking at 510 thicknesses on the GFS last night...hence my comment, made before the 12z run came out. Look at the date/time of the post, folks. 2) Low 40's along I-95 at the end of November really isn't unseasonable cold to begin with...it's definitely below average though (which I think I mentioned). Consistency. You should have recognized that the run you were referencing was an off run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Gees models are all over the place with the middle of next week. Do we get a cold front Tuesday night and more frontal waves into Friday? do we get one big cf on wednesday or Thanksgiving?? The European has a decent storm for the Great Lakes but it appears like the cold shot will be relatively quick. Looks alot less amplified with the trough over the east coast in the medium range. Looks like it is holding back energy in the southwest US and has a stubborn SE ridge. GFS on the other hand holds a deep trough over the eastern US well into the medium range. Looks like it even has some NAO/PNA connection. Fun times ahead with the models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Consistency. You should have recognized that the run you were referencing was an off run. the 0z is an off run? Seemed rather consistent to what the 12z yesterday showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 The European has a decent storm for the Great Lakes but it appears like the cold shot will be relatively quick. Looks alot less amplified with the trough over the east coast in the medium range. Looks like it is holding back energy in the southwest US and has a stubborn SE ridge. GFS on the other hand holds a deep trough over the eastern US well into the medium range. Looks like it even has some NAO/PNA connection. Fun times ahead with the models! The euro at 240 though does have a nice west based -nao, and good pos pna. So i would imagine in the 11-13 day timeframe the trof would get restablished in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I don't like how the last few runs the GFS is handling the Thanskgiving storm. Instead of phasing more energy into the PV trough, it's bring out the energy out ahead of trough and phases it with the 50/50 low. It gives the appearance the 50/50 low is trending west and the confluence is increasing. With the PV coming down, the west coast ridge and the SE ridge next week, I think we looking at deeper and more phased PV trough over the Midwest and less confluence over the Northeast. So I think we see a strong low going to Lakes, and perhaps a weaker secondary low along Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 1) We weren't looking at 510 thicknesses on the GFS last night...hence my comment, made before the 12z run came out. Look at the date/time of the post, folks. 2) Low 40's along I-95 at the end of November really isn't unseasonable cold to begin with...it's definitely below average though (which I think I mentioned). The thing is is that I don't expect to see anything in the 40's if those heights come to fruition. But the lower end of your range (40-42) is cold... anytime we get departures around -10 it's impressive; much more so then when getting +10 (for obvious reasons.) Think of highs in the 20's as opposed to near 40. But who knows what will happen. I'll just let the days come and let them do what they will do since the models are getting their stomach pumped right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 The OP ECMWF looks over amplifed to me with shortwave trough coming through Northern Plains around on Day 8/9. The ECMWF Ensemble Mean shows nothing but ridging in over West and trough over the East. Which looks more realistic. The OP ECMWF has really been very inconsitent of late, at this range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 JB has impressive cold (sub 32) day in NYC and the Philly burbs in about 10 days....he indicates that would be the first sub32 day in NYC in November since 1996. Now that would be impressive early season cold in my book! I'll have to check my local records for last sub32 in November Edit: Just noticed that we did have a sub32 day here in NW Chesco back on 11/22/08 - how soon we forget Paul www.chescowx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Kramer Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 models are cluttered with noise right now, not surprising given the large pattern change that they are ingesting with a huge climb in the PNA and huge drop in the NAO. The noise will clear as the sampling increases and the extrapolation decreases, IE the physics works better. Sadly, that occurs when we come closer to an event which I guess is just a way of saying the models get better as 0 hour approaches, buts its hard to expect more right now. Even the euro with its superior resolution and initialization scheme is having trouble, some might even say the GFS is more consistent. Time for a beer, night all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Have 0 model consistency, there seems to be multiple waves asociated with the front around thanksgiving, and possibly a big storm that is for now OTS Other than that its a free for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 JB has impressive cold (sub 32) day in NYC and the Philly burbs in about 10 days....he indicates that would be the first sub32 day in NYC in November since 1996. Now that would be impressive early season cold in my book! I'll have to check my local records for last sub32 in November Edit: Just noticed that we did have a sub32 day here in NW Chesco back on 11/22/08 - how soon we forget Paul www.chescowx.com The November cold outbreak in '08 was the most impressive since '89, IMO...we had several days of sub 40 in Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Looks like here in NW Philly burbs we had 6 straight days (Nov18-23rd) of below 40 degree highs. We even recorded 2.3" of snow over that timeframe. Still ended up with slightly below normal snow season with just 29.6" of snow for the 2008/09 season The November cold outbreak in '08 was the most impressive since '89, IMO...we had several days of sub 40 in Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_384m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_384m.gif talk about a **** tease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 good lord the 0z euro was a..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 (o_O) Two miller A's on this run. Didn't know that was la nina's bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 12z euro is still a train wreck. Transient shot of cold after t giving. Day 10 has a very nice west based -nao and nice pos pna, only issue is the ao looks to be severely pos, cause there is no cold air at all in canada really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 12z euro is still a train wreck. Transient shot of cold after t giving. Day 10 has a very nice west based -nao and nice pos pna, only issue is the ao looks to be severely pos, cause there is no cold air at all in canada really. Sounds alot like last year. If there isn't any cold air in the arctic during a positive AO, I don't know where it is. I thought Canada and the Arctic bakes(relative to average) during a -AO because the polar vortex is displaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Sounds alot like last year. If there isn't any cold air in the arctic during a positive AO, I don't know where it is. I thought Canada and the Arctic bakes(relative to average) during a -AO because the polar vortex is displaced. its the other way around i believe. Pos ao is when the polar vortex is over the pole or over on siberia's side. -ao is when its displaced on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 its the other way around i believe. Pos ao is when the polar vortex is over the pole or over on siberia's side. -ao is when its displaced on our side. That makes sense, thanks for the insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 That makes sense, thanks for the insight. my bad, you're right im wrong. -ao canda and arctic bakes whille we are cold. Pos ao canada and arctic is cold and we are warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 my bad, you're right im wrong. -ao canda and arctic bakes whille we are cold. Pos ao canada and arctic is cold and we are warm. Talking about the AO, HM posted about a potential stratospheric warming event on the horizon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 my bad, you're right im wrong. -ao canda and arctic bakes whille we are cold. Pos ao canada and arctic is cold and we are warm. Yeah, I should probably validate my thoughts more often. Thanks for clarifying this, you are a great poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 12z euro is still a train wreck. Transient shot of cold after t giving. Day 10 has a very nice west based -nao and nice pos pna, only issue is the ao looks to be severely pos, cause there is no cold air at all in canada really. The block by Greenland is rapidly exiting stage north and if there was a 270 hour depiction there would be a raging +NAO...there would be a cold blast into the east likely at Day 12-15 or so once that cutter moved into Canada but it would rapidly move out and there would be some sort of blowtorch after that across most of the nation if that evolution on the Euro were to be correct....moderate to strong La Ninas just suck, a -NAO can go a long way to decreasing the impacts but -NAOs just seem hard to come by during those sort of La Ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.