The Winter 2010-11 NYC/PHL Medium Range Thread

[earthlight]

Let's pray the DGEX is right...I will be up at my Vermont house the end of next week

[ORH_wxman]

Where does 1993-94 fit in? I thought that was on this list.

1993-1994 was a +NAO winter.

[Alpha5]

Let's pray the DGEX is right...I will be up at my Vermont house the end of next week

Yeah lets all pray its right so you get youre snow and we all get screwed with 50s and rain

[tombo82685]

I dont care if we torch this year, well i mean id love cold. I just want winter with some threats, i don't think i could handle a 97-98 type of season, granted that was a diff enso.

[Isotherm]

The full list since 1950 (if you include the borderline '81-'82 year) is:

1955-1956

1961-1962

1964-1965

1965-1966

1967-1968

1968-1969

1970-1971

1978-1979

1981-1982

1984-1985

2008-2009

The average snow for New Brunswick NJ for those years is 27", which is not bad at all. In fact, several of those winters were 30-35", and only 1 year out of the 11 there was a stinker with under 20". The majority were within the "normal" range for this area, 25-33". That's what I'm expecting this winter to produce - about average snow.

[Dsnowx53]

December 5th!!!

[mattinpa]

<br />December 5th!!! <br /><br /><br /><br /><img src="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_384s.gif" /><br />

<br /><br /><br />

I've learned that sometimes when the NAO goes back towards +, a storm can follow. So it's definitely fantasy, but possible given the pattern?

[jrodd321]

December 5th!!!

Wow that is gorgeous. Wish the GFS went past 384 just to watch that beauty unfold. We can only dream..

[Snowlover11]

Wow that is gorgeous. Wish the GFS went past 384 just to watch that beauty unfold. We can only dream..

What is it about Dec. 5th though?

[jrodd321]

What is it about Dec. 5th though?

I dont know, that is kinda of freaky though haha

[jm1220]

December 5th!!!

With a +NAO reagrdless!! (meaning it's very likely BS, but still fun to watch)

[Riptide]

With a +NAO reagrdless!! (meaning it's very likely BS, but still fun to watch)

It looks like the cold air is just pouring out of Canada and probably Siberia, decent west coast ridge as well.

[jm1220]

It looks like the cold air is just pouring out of Canada and probably Siberia, decent west coast ridge as well.

There's a big GOA low and while there is a west coast ridge, the air source is hardly arctic.

[Guest PDIIREDUX]

not sure how much we can trust them but it would appear that the gfs ensembles still show a lot of bagginess behind the frontal passage indicating low pressure can still ride up and give us a storm. Also def. hinting at a pretty potent 500 low coming down out of central canada for the potential miller B.

This pattern def. has potential.

[Guest Kramer]

not sure how much we can trust them but it would appear that the gfs ensembles still show a lot of bagginess behind the frontal passage indicating low pressure can still ride up and give us a storm. Also def. hinting at a pretty potent 500 low coming down out of central canada for the potential miller B.

This pattern def. has potential.

Any time you have a piece of a 500 vort in eastern canada break off and drop into a deep cold trough you have a potential powder keg, especially if it meets up with ANY kind of energy in the base of the trough. Waters off the coast arewarm, so if something does pop, look for explosive development, with the usual coastal locations fighting the change over battle depending on winds.

[phlwx]

There's a big GOA low and while there is a west coast ridge, the air source is hardly arctic.

Highs in the 40's in late November zomg the cold is coming!

(I kid...seriously, it's going to be cooler out and likely below average by a few degrees for highs but 40's in late November is nothing too abnormal....we were in the 30's two years ago at this time...that was a bit more unusual compared to the post-Thanksgiving cooldown that's coming up).

[earthlight]

The Euro trended slightly more east-based with it's -NAO..while the GFS got much more favorable with the ridging both over the west coast and greenland.

[Chris L]

The NAO is insane on the ECMWF.

GFS has a better trough axis and nice ridge out west and sharp trough directly on the east.

December.... will be our friend if we get the polar jet to dig south (to compsenstate for the lack of Subtropical Jet flow).

[MJO812]

The 12z GFS squashes the secondary low to the south. Man, the models are a mess for next week.

Edit : Looks like another wave is right behind it.

[Sundog]

I think i'm going to start just looking out the window than rely on these models. Every single run produces a different result.

[MJO812]

Next weekend looks pretty cold on the 12z GFS. Wow.

[Analog96]

With a +NAO reagrdless!! (meaning it's very likely BS, but still fun to watch)

Not really! Most Winter storms have been proven time and time again to occur when an NAO phase change occurs.

[Analog96]

Highs in the 40's in late November zomg the cold is coming!

(I kid...seriously, it's going to be cooler out and likely below average by a few degrees for highs but 40's in late November is nothing too abnormal....we were in the 30's two years ago at this time...that was a bit more unusual compared to the post-Thanksgiving cooldown that's coming up).

Where do you see highs in the 40s after Thanksgiving?

[Sundog]

Where do you see highs in the 40s after Thanksgiving?

If 510dm heights produce highs in the 40s (which I am sure he means high 40s because low 40's are almost 10 degrees below normal) then we'll never get cold in here.

[Analog96]

If 510dm heights produce highs in the 40s (which I am sure he means high 40s because low 40's are almost 10 degrees below normal) then we'll never get cold in here.

Basically. Now, understood that it will be warmer at the end of November with that kind of pattern, but those heights probably support low 20s for highs in January, which does NOT equal 40s in late November.

[MJO812]

The 12z GFS is cold throughout the entire run after Thanksgiving, except for 1 day, where another trough comes through. Winter is here folks.

[Analog96]

The 12z GFS is cold throughout the entire run after Thanksgiving, except for 1 day, where another trough comes through. Winter is here folks.

It will be cold. I just hope that it's not cold and dry and then warms up in time for the next decent storm.

[MJO812]

It will be cold. I just hope that it's not cold and dry and then warms up in time for the next decent storm.

I wonder if the models are having a hard time trying to figure out the storm for next week because of the blocking. This also happened last year, where the models were all over the place.

[Analog96]

I wonder if the models are having a hard time trying to figure out the storm for next week because of the blocking. This also happened last year, where the models were all over the place.

That and the fact that there are so many waves in the train. We won't really know until about 60-72 hours where a storm is really going.

[jrodd321]

That and the fact that there are so many waves in the train. We won't really know until about 60-72 hours where a storm is really going.

Agreed, which is why we just need to get the cold here first. Storms can pop up whenever they want afterwards, just as long as we got the cold here first.