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NNE Groundhog Day Storm Thread


dryslot

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Weenie 21z RSM hits simpsonsbuff with 1.25" additional QPF tomorrow and drops 0.60" in 3hr over my head. S NH just gets in on the additional forcing from the developing secondary lows as the primaries die well to the NW.

The 00z NAM does the same thing too. 0.50-0.60" in 3hr from 15-18z. Midday could be epic with 1-3"/hr for a few hours.

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Just noticed I need 13.7" to surpass last year's mark. I'd like to shoot by that tomorrow.

I'd need just over 19", and the GYX snow map has me at about half that (and I'm guessing 7-8" for MBY.) Act 1 added 1.5" (0.11" LE) to my snowpack; the half inch that fell 6-9 P was 20:1 fluff, the earlier small-flake stuff closer to 10 or 11. Still the odd flake drifting down, bu I'd be surprised to get more than a dusting prior to act 2 startup. The 1" guess for AUG at 4 PM, done from inside my office, was actually a good 2", so they probably ended up with 2.5 to 3".

My BGR meeting was postponed and I've got nothing particularly time-sensitive on the docket, so rather than drive the 32 miles to AUG tomorrow, I'm going to cash some vacation and watch the snow come down. :whistle:

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My BGR meeting was postponed and I've got nothing particularly time-sensitive on the docket, so rather than drive the 32 miles to AUG tomorrow, I'm going to cash some vacation and watch the snow come down. :whistle:

I've been given the go-ahead to stay home tomorrow rather than risk life and limb on the mean streets of SW Maine. I'm thankful for that not necessarily for the driving but so that I can keep ahead of the shoveling. I like to do it 4" at a time, not the potential 10-12"+ in one swell foop.

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I've been given the go-ahead to stay home tomorrow rather than risk life and limb on the mean streets of SW Maine. I'm thankful for that not necessarily for the driving but so that I can keep ahead of the shoveling. I like to do it 4" at a time, not the potential 10-12"+ in one swell foop.

Well that will simple mean radar checks every 2 minutes :thumbsup:

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I've been given the go-ahead to stay home tomorrow rather than risk life and limb on the mean streets of SW Maine. I'm thankful for that not necessarily for the driving but so that I can keep ahead of the shoveling. I like to do it 4" at a time, not the potential 10-12"+ in one swell foop.

Yup me to, My boss said i can stay home as well, Oh wait, I am the boss.....lol

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Event totals: 2.5” Snow/0.15” L.E.

Tuesday 2/1/2011 7:00 P.M. update: When I left Burlington today at around 6:00 P.M. I’d say that they had picked up a couple inches of new snow, and it was certainly dry, fluffy snow. On my car at the Waterbury Park and Ride I found about 3 inches of fresh snow, and it was definitely low density stuff. For those that are familiar, it had that airy sugar, or perhaps “spun” sugary consistency that some batches of powder have. It makes those small sounds of crystals smashing together as you brush it around, and in this case, the structure of the crystals was such that the snow stack was more on the “shattering” side of the spectrum vs. the “collapsing” side of the spectrum. In line with that, it’s not the lightest of the light, because that stuff makes even less noise, and it also didn’t have the super aggregative properties that some batches of powder have. Hearing the sounds and feeling the resistance of the powder, I still threw out my first guess at density at that point, and I went with somewhere in the 3% to 5% H2O range (ratios of 20 or 30 to 1). I was eager to see how it came in when I got my core off the snowboard.

At home I found 2.5 inches on the board, and as soon as put my coring cylinder down and then compressed the core with the inner cylinder, I knew I’d guessed too low on the density. There was a sneaky amount of liquid in there. The core only compressed down to about a half inch under the standard amount of pressure that I apply, and it was definitely going to come in above 5% H2O. Anyway, the single 68 mm diameter core melted down to 13.74 mL, which comes in at 0.15 inches of liquid, for a density of exactly 6.0% H2O or a ratio of 16.7 to 1. So my first guess off the car was just a touch low. I’m not sure what everyone’s best guess was for this part of the storm in terms of the temperatures and cloud physics, but that value comes from 0.15 inches of liquid with no wind, so it’s definitely a very robust and accurate measurement. It will be interesting to see what others around here get for ratios if they catch it before settling, or what BTV comes in with. The fresh snow I checked out in Burlington didn’t seem quite as airy as what I found in Waterbury, but it was still quite dry.

Anyway, looking ahead, I was watching NECN this evening and saw the latest snowfall map that Matt Noyes was presenting; I was very surprised to see the new configuration for snowfall. He’s got a decent slug up here, so I grabbed a screen shot:

01FEB11A.jpg

Some details from the 7:00 P.M. observations are below:

New Snow: 2.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.15 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 16.7

Snow Density: 6.0% H2O

Temperature: 15.6 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 18.5 inches

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Wow what an epic fail that looks to be happening. Not a fun thing to wake up to lol. Pretty much every model and every forecaster is missing this one if it cuts off as fast as it looks like it will. Mother nature always decides in the end. Looks like it is snowing hard and the visibility is low but damn the flakeage sucks.

Best hope is a some redevelopment of the precip after the dry slot pushes through...maybe that will give us fluff as Brian was saying yesterday.

Just as I write this maybe slight improvement in snow growth.

Sorry to be so negative...really wanted to see 3 ft at the stake today. Once I finish my coffee and get outside it'll be fun.

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Wow what an epic fail that looks to be happening. Not a fun thing to wake up to lol. Pretty much every model and every forecaster is missing this one if it cuts off as fast as it looks like it will. Mother nature always decides in the end. Looks like it is snowing hard and the visibility is low but damn the flakeage sucks.

Best hope is a some redevelopment of the precip after the dry slot pushes through...maybe that will give us fluff as Brian was saying yesterday.

Just as I write this maybe slight improvement in snow growth.

Sorry to be so negative...really wanted to see 3 ft at the stake today. Once I finish my coffee and get outside it'll be fun.

I was bummed when I awoke at 5:00 and updated the radar ... saw that the back edge of the precip shield was flying this way. Even more disheartened when I turned on the deck light and saw the small flakes. I knew right then that my 10-14 call was in jeopardy. We'll see how the rest of the day goes.

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But as sbos says, read the AFD. I just did. It was written 3 hours ago. They are looking at the radar and all the latest data and calling for 12-16 inches. I wish I knew how that was going to happen looking at the radar. But these guys know so much more than I that I am going stop being so negative and enjoy myself today!

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We are seeing good snow growth and I suspect will see decent 15:1 ratios or so... heavy snow... at least 1"/hr. My foot prints from 5:30am are already gone.

I think we see a nice west-east deformation band across the northern tier... everything is looking good with snow stretching back into the Great Lakes still. Dry slot should get shunted off to the east soon.

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I was bummed when I awoke at 5:00 and updated the radar ... saw that the back edge of the precip shield was flying this way. Even more disheartened when I turned on the deck light and saw the small flakes. I knew right then that my 10-14 call was in jeopardy. We'll see how the rest of the day goes.

Lol you and I have the same routine almost to the minute.

It is snowing hard right now and snow growth much better...that will likely get to you soon. Keep the faith and when in doubt read the AFD. Man another 7+ event this weekend. Worried about that because I have an 8:15am flt to London from Boston. That means a 1.5 hour drive in normal conditions. And then another, while I am gone, on Tuesday. I return Thursday and maybe there will be more than 3 feet at my stake...maybe 4 lol.

Epic winter...there I feel better.

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