Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

NNE Groundhog Day Storm Thread


dryslot

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 384
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Haha yeah that's all yours but I completely agree. There's a spotter up there that will come in with probably the highest amounts.

If I *had* to guess another jackpot spot it would be Jaffery, NH in the Manadnocks... or 2,000ft in Peru, MA (Berks). Still, its going to be hard to beat 2,100ft in extreme southern VT.

--SN just started here at 1,500ft in Stowe. Snowing a little steadier up at the top of the lifts at 3,600ft. Dry air is evaporating most of it in the over 2,000ft fall from top to the base here. I doubt its doing anything in Stowe village yet.

PF, please pardon the IMBY question, but what are you thinking for the Mount Snow area? I have a whole skihouse full of people waiting to hear if this is going to be an epic weekend. I've already told them yes, but what are your thoughts about totals?

I knew this was going to be another big weekend, because I'm leaving on Friday night for 2 weeks in Spain for work. Not a bad reason to miss some VT weekends, but still - bummed that I'm missing the snow! I was up there this last weekend, and the snow was very good, but this will be unbelievable.

thanks in advance!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

PF, please pardon the IMBY question, but what are you thinking for the Mount Snow area? I have a whole skihouse full of people waiting to hear if this is going to be an epic weekend. I've already told them yes, but what are your thoughts about totals?

I knew this was going to be another big weekend, because I'm leaving on Friday night for 2 weeks in Spain for work. Not a bad reason to miss some VT weekends, but still - bummed that I'm missing the snow! I was up there this last weekend, and the snow was very good, but this will be unbelievable.

thanks in advance!

Mount Snow would be my jackpot area... I'd venture 14-18". Not sure how well they did today, I think tomorrow they'll get a solid foot so add what they got to that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mount Snow would be my jackpot area... I'd venture 14-18". Not sure how well they did today, I think tomorrow they'll get a solid foot so add what they got to that.

Sweet - thanks! Nice thing is it looks like it stays cold for a while afterwards, hopefully that will allow the snow pack to settle and help maintain the season for a good long time. Nice to finally see Southern VT getting some love out of these storms, so many things have missed south this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

+SN

12F

1,500ft

0.5"-1" NEW

Visibility has come way down over the past hour here at the mountain. We are now at 1/4 mile or so as I can barely see the hotel across the street. Flake size has been ok, but during these heavier bursts we get some great snow growth. Just looking at the snow, I'd estimate ratios are decent at 14-16:1. Definitely not the 30:1 upslope stuff, but certainly higher than average for a synoptic storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We keep getting into this west-east band of snow that stretches from ART to BTV to MVL... been pretty consistent and with snow still back into southern Ontario, hopefully we can keep this light snow up for a while and sneak out 2-3" from this first event.

I have a good feeling that we see the same thing happen tomorrow afternoon and night, as we are in the right spot for some west-east deformation banding as the warmer air aloft gets halted by the cold arctic airmass. I have a feeling areas further south may have higher snowfall rates tomorrow, but the dry slot will blast through like its currently doing, leaving a long west-east band of continued light snows.

You guys in northern NH and into ME will also benefit from this as the H7 dry slot blasts through SNE and portions of CNE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18Z really cut QPF for NH tomorrow. This storm is really hauling. I received 2" today. Expecting 8-12" tomorrow I d not see any of the crazy amounts being thrown around for C/NNE. My guess this will be around a 12" snowstorm for most.

Gene

I agree. still hold out some hope for a total closer to 20 but realistically expecting lower double digits total at this point

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hovering right around 2" for this first batch.... maybe a hair over. Too lazy to measure. Damn cold.... 11. Gotta get that wood stove stoked up.

Don't get worked up over the 18z NAM. People did it the other day too, and then 00z bounced back. The SREFs are still fairly juicy for part 2, but people need to keep in mind that we're probably not going to get 1" of liquid tomorrow with this anyway.

The moral of the story is snow growth was overall lousy today. I was hoping for some serious fluff, but instead I recorded 3.0" new snow with 0.31" w.e. Yes...a hair under 10:1. So ~0.30" of our possible 1.25" QPF is now gone and we got 3" out of it. I think tomorrow will be a similar deal with 0.75-1.00" QPF. I think most of that will fall at 10-12:1 at best. My hope is that the last 0.10-0.20 we can squeeze out 20-25:1. Basically I'm looking for 6-9" from the main thump tomorrow and then hopefully a fluffy 2-3" on top of that. So 8-12" on top of what we have now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18Z really cut QPF for NH tomorrow. This storm is really hauling. I received 2" today. Expecting 8-12" tomorrow I d not see any of the crazy amounts being thrown around for C/NNE. My guess this will be around a 12" snowstorm for most.

Gene

Snow will linger around in the northern tier as the dry slot shuts off precip in CNE/SNE... all the models pretty much agree on an axis of continued light snow (much like today's event if you look at radar now) across the northern tier. We are still snowing pretty decently with huge flakes and great ratios. Over 2" so far today and it looks like a band of light snow may continue across NNE into this evening.

Here's the 18z GFS just to show you... pretty much all the models have this so I have high confidence in this happening. Tomorrow we'll see the dry slot punch into SNE and maybe CNE, but NNE will stay within the axis of moisture and could continue to pick up high ratio snow well into tomorrow night while it stops elsewhere.

We got more than I was expecting today (expecting only 1") and given today's flake structure and size, I am feeling very good about tomorrow. This stuff is pure fluff and I'm sure high ratio snow as I bet we only picked up .1" of liquid. If this occurs tomorrow we are going to get slammed pretty good.

gfs_pcp_024s.gif

gfs_pcp_030s.gif

gfs_pcp_036s.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't get worked up over the 18z NAM. People did it the other day too, and then 00z bounced back. The SREFs are still fairly juicy for part 2, but people need to keep in mind that we're probably not going to get 1" of liquid tomorrow with this anyway.

The moral of the story is snow growth was overall lousy today. I was hoping for some serious fluff, but instead I recorded 3.0" new snow with 0.31" w.e. Yes...a hair under 10:1. So ~0.30" of our possible 1.25" QPF is now gone and we got 3" out of it. I think tomorrow will be a similar deal with 0.75-1.00" QPF. I think most of that will fall at 10-12:1 at best. My hope is that the last 0.10-0.20 we can squeeze out 20-25:1. Basically I'm looking for 6-9" from the main thump tomorrow and then hopefully a fluffy 2-3" on top of that. So 8-12" on top of what we have now.

Completely different up here... we are now over 2" here and its total fluff. I can't believe we picked up the same as those near Rutland-Plymouth but this is low ratio snow. Good sized flakes today and I doubt we got much over 0.1" of liquid in this 2.2" of snow.

I'd be curious to see what J.Spin's ratios come out to as he usually has pretty good measurements. If we get this type of snow with the QPF forecast tomorrow, we are going to get crushed.

3" on the snow board at 3,000ft... 2.2" in the village at 800ft.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...