OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I see DVN went all in for the QCA. Point and click for here now shows 18-22". With the way it's ripping out there I wouldn't doubt it. Still have 6+ hours of heavy snow left to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eureka22 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sounds like state police in my area are not going to allow any more towing unless it's to clear a blocked road. Three foot drifts reported by trooper on state route 117 north of Eureka, road almost impassable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 For folks worrying about the dry radar hole it should fill in quick--it does seem the PV max is continuing to deepen with continued height falls as it propagates eastward. With that dry mid-level region I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes unstable and rapidly fills in with convection as height continue to fall aloft. You can see that beginning to show on WV. I agree and if you loop the Multi-parm MUCAPE on SPC analysis it shows it developing east of Beau....but I suspect more will develop in the deformation zone as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 One thing I'm noticing is the flake size is pretty small, even when we had the heavier snows. Hopefully these bands about to rotate up thru here will start increasing flake size or we might have some trouble making the middle of the road NWS accumulations. That said, I hope its on my point and click is 17-22" total. I do believe the QC will be in an area that see some of the heaviest totals. The pivot point is going to be very near or over us I think. I think this is where the winds are messing up the snow growth. We're probably getting shattered dendrites here, I'll definitely be curious to see what they can measure up at DVN this 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm glad it's still sleet at my house. Haven't seen this much sleet in a while. Bet you thought you'd never say that? Good stuff though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 i really can't get over these winds. Can't believe they might get stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 One thing I'm noticing is the flake size is pretty small, even when we had the heavier snows. Hopefully these bands about to rotate up thru here will start increasing flake size or we might have some trouble making the middle of the road NWS accumulations. That said, I hope its on my point and click is 17-22" total. I do believe the QC will be in an area that see some of the heaviest totals. The pivot point is going to be very near or over us I think. The flake size is quite small here. I'm really hoping the darker green band approaching I-80 near Iowa City will make it up here. Might be some better size with those flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Patrick, what are your thoughts on totals for Detroit...Seems like 8-10" would be a good bet despite the dry slot much later tonight. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 i really can't imagine any large dendrites surviving with these winds, no matter how ridiculous the returns, it's like a sandblaster out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Patrick, what are your thoughts on totals for Detroit...Seems like 8-10" would be a good bet despite the dry slot much later tonight. Thoughts? I'm thinking 9 to 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Still have 6+ hours of heavy snow left to go. What's amazing is the snowfall intensity compared to the radar returns. Even heavier returns heading this way out of Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 3 hr pres falls would leave you to believe the low is going to take a due north track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Skilling thundersnow after 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I was 9 yo living in Ft Wayne for the '78 blizzard, which I believe set my love for weather and forecasting/obs....climbing on our roof from drifts. In fact, a "weather kit" for Christmas beforehand, and the barometer fluid rushing up and into the jar - old school. I digress, I have never seen this much sleet in my life. It is at least 6" deep on my deck and drive, and still going. As Hoosier said, a "bucket list" to do - I have no complaints with this winter - at all!! A fill in this weekend, and more Mon-Wed next week - happy camper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just got home, usual 20 min tops commute took 1.5 hrs. Sounds like a severe thunderstorm warning outside. BARE GRASS. Winds probably sustained 35, gusting to 50. It's absolutely nuts. Going to wait for heavy returns to the south then i'll go out snapping pics and such. But this wind, wow. I finally made it home, my 45-60 minute commute totaled a whopping 3.5 hours. Lake Shore Drive was the most exhilarating part of the trip. At time I couldn't see the car in front of me due to the wind-whipped snow off the lakefront. There was already about 4" or 6" of snow accumulated on the drive due to it being thrown by the wind. Between North Avenue and Irving Park I passed 3 stalled cars stuck in the snow. Wild out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm thinking 9 to 13. Nice, I'd go higher, depended upon that IL dryslot...if it fills in some and some convection can pop up, that will provide a slight boost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 i really can't imagine any large dendrites surviving with these winds, no matter how ridiculous the returns, it's like a sandblaster out there. yep and that will likely knock down accumulations by at least 4-6" I think. Large dendrites just can't survive this kind of wind, no matter how intense the echoes or available moisture. It's just pouring small tiny flakes here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I agree and if you loop the Multi-parm MUCAPE on SPC analysis it shows it developing east of Beau....but I suspect more will develop in the deformation zone as expected. Yeah it is definitely filling in now. Once those heights crash could get interesting--I will have to check the stability parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I finally made it home, my 45-60 minute commute totaled a whopping 3.5 hours. Lake Shore Drive was the most exhilarating part of the trip. At time I couldn't see the car in front of me due to the wind-whipped snow off the lakefront. There was already about 4" or 6" of snow accumulated on the drive due to it being thrown by the wind. Between North Avenue and Irving Park I passed 3 stalled cars stuck in the snow. Wild out there. just tried to go rooftop.....yeah not happening. Hard to standup straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I don't know if Jomo said anything about flake size but I'd be curious to know what it was out there since he got 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 i really can't imagine any large dendrites surviving with these winds, no matter how ridiculous the returns, it's like a sandblaster out there. we had all small flakes today, except for a period of 20 to 30min this morning around 530, then it was very large flakes(probably when we got most of our acculation) snowfall 3.5 inches total here (approx, hard to tell with 25-35mph winds all night last night and today) -current avitar is of this storm not that long ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmountainwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The flake size is quite small here. I'm really hoping the darker green band approaching I-80 near Iowa City will make it up here. Might be some better size with those flakes. Small flakes continue here, but very intense. Visibilty has fallen even more , now less than 250 yards. I went out to plow our road and travel is almost impossible now.15" is almost a certainty looking at the radar. I kinda doubt that 7.7" in Ottumwa because I'm south of town and had only about 5" at that same time at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Congrats Bowme!!!!! See i told ya.....MKE in the snow, its money back here Thanks much bro! I've been a nervous, negative nellie for the past 6 days. I just cant believe this is going to happen.. I hate like crazy and kinna takes some away from the storm that folks to the SE and S have to deal with missing out on the snow or have to deal with the dangerous ice storm situation.. I never thought from the 1st day this thread was made I had a chance... now look where I am.. Dinner time.. its ice cold... wifes pissed lol. cya all later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I take my previous statement back. I'd say it is a light to moderate snowfall, but it might as well be heavy due to the winds whipping the 6 inches from earlier as well as the current snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Bet you thought you'd never say that? Good stuff though. I worked a sleet storm back when I was at Louisville over a decade ago. The Valentine's Day storm of 2007 had a decent amount of sleet here if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Lightning and Thunder..Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Leading edge of the snow already over central Lk Erie. NAM/GFS way too slow. RUC's got the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Flake size is relatively small, but it's so densely packed it really doesn't seem to matter. You literally feel soaked as soon as you walk out into it like it pouring rain. I'd have to say we have at least 6" here, but it's very hard to tell for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Lol, Fon du Lac is in the teens and reporting mixed precipitation. I hope that is a typo or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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