KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 451 PM EST TUE FEB 01 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0450 PM HEAVY SLEET FRANKFORT 40.28N 86.51W 02/01/2011 M3.00 INCH CLINTON IN TRAINED SPOTTER WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS DUE TO SLEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Chaos on the cta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 starting to rip here with the 6" from last night and the increase in winds it is incredible outside already...got some pictures from my drive home that will be up soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Chaos on the cta Heard it's nutty at Union Station and OTC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Chaos on the cta I bet alot of peopler thought the worst was going to be tonight so they got surprised during the Rush hour?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Fair enough. The ultimate thing that will make or break the forecast around here will be how consistent the snowfall rates are. We would need non-stop 1" per hour rates to reach in excess of 9 inches in such a short period of time (6-9 hours). While plausible, we also have to take note of our climo when considering the possibility, and our typical winter storms normally don't produces rates that high for so long. Flake size (ratios) will also be improtant too. It's going to be even harder to reach 9"+ withteh strong winds and the potential for riming. Totally agree with that and really it is semantics as with the wind expected it will be bad either way.....it will be interesting watching the flake size as you could have either a collision and coalescence helping the snowflake production or with the shear there may not be enough residence time in the cloud for the larger flakes....will be fun to watch either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This has gotta be the biggest sleet storm in awhile for the midwest. Just pouring the stuff. I've never personally experienced a sleet storm of this magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 METAR KLAF 012154Z 07023G31KT 1 3/4SM UP BKN015 BKN022 OVC033 M06/M09 A2985 RMK AO2 PK WND 06039/2127 UPE29B52SNB15E23 PRESFR SLP116 P0006 T10611089 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I don't know if I buy the 3" part, but yeah, it's pretty crazy outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Chicago Public Schools closed tomorrow for the first time since the '99 Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Take it FWIW, but this says the mix line in east central IL and west central IN is moving north quite quickly. http://weatherobserv...ar_grearth1.htm From what I've observed it looks pretty accurate.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I don't know if I buy the 3" part, but yeah, it's pretty crazy outside. I could probably pull a 3" measurement from a drift of sleet that I've got going on at my front door.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Take it FWIW, but this says the mix line in east central IL and west central IN is moving north quite quickly. http://weatherobserv...ar_grearth1.htm Almost looks like it shows the heavier returns heading north being a mix. Guess at least 2 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Anybody from my old stomping grounds up in the SE Michigan area? I live in the Baltimore area now,but I have a lot of family in the Ann Arbor area. Hoping to hear some play by play of the BLIZZARD there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Almost looks like it shows the heavier returns heading north being a mix. Guess at least 2 inches here. New zones suggest 13-20" of snow... IDK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I've never personally experienced a sleet storm of this magnitude. Do you have just pure sleet or mix of sleet and other stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 New zones suggest 13-20" of snow... IDK. I just saw that. I should find out here in a lil bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Do you have just pure sleet or mix of sleet and other stuff? All sleet right now. Also for those in the LOT southern CWA, gives some credence to the mix line moving north quickly. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 354 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0345 PM BLIZZARD ESE PAXTON 40.46N 88.10W 02/01/2011 FORD IL TRAINED SPOTTER EXTREME BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY SNOW. VISIBILITY DOWN TO 100 YARDS OR LESS. BEGAN AS SNOW NOW SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I just saw that. I should find out here in a lil bit. New zone for Valpo shows 15-27" thru Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like I have 30-40 miles of wiggle room before I give up ALL hope. (Sleet + Dry slot = far less significant snowfall). Kind-of unrelated, but I'm interested in the lake potential tomorrow. Could put down a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Some crazy drifts of up to 1 foot+ already here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 you think there is some drifting LOL SEDALIA SQUALL 19 16 86 NE46G176 29.88S SQUALL VSB<1/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 From what I've observed it looks pretty accurate.. Hoosier is getting excited because the reds are getting closer to LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 hmmmm... Going to be an ugly commute in Chicago ... Probably set some record for number of accidents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 DeKalb: 2" from f-gen and lake band + main storm so far Coming down at a rate of about 3/4"/hr so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like I have 30-40 miles of wiggle room before I give up ALL hope. (Sleet + Dry slot = far less significant snowfall). Kind-of unrelated, but I'm interested in the lake potential tomorrow. Could put down a few inches. Should have stayed here for the sleet. It's a sight to behold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Anybody from my old stomping grounds up in the SE Michigan area? I live in the Baltimore area now,but I have a lot of family in the Ann Arbor area. Hoping to hear some play by play of the BLIZZARD there Yeah I am on duty here at metro (KDTW). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 DeKalb: 2" from f-gen and lake band + main storm so far Coming down at a rate of about 3/4"/hr so far. Are you referring to the storm report put in by the Co-op observer, or is that your own measurement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This is off topic but does anybody know what the record is for a thread page total/total posts for one event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Anybody from my old stomping grounds up in the SE Michigan area? I live in the Baltimore area now,but I have a lot of family in the Ann Arbor area. Hoping to hear some play by play of the BLIZZARD there Plenty of us here! You will get some play by play. We have a true blizzard coming. Im a little disappointed that the total snowfall has gone down a little, thus probably not cracking a top 5 storm, but that comes at the price of the storm being more ferocious. (A true blizzard cant have high ratios, as we were envisioning would be the case a few days ago). To any debbie downers in SE MI. My advice. First of all, this is not a run of the mill storm. No way, no how. This is a blizzard, something many of you claimed to be dying for. Yes, qpf went down some, but the reality is we wont be seeing great snow ratios BECAUSE its a blizzard. A few days ago we questioned some awesome runs of the NAM and assumed 15-20:1 ratios because of the temps. However at the time, winds didnt look so strong. Now qpf went DOWN but the potential for thundersnow and blizzard conditioins went UP. Im sure some would complain at 15" of long-duration, fluffy, calm-wind snowfall for not being intense, just as they will complain at a blizzard for not having great ratios. But seriously, we are starting with a 6-8" snowpack and will be adding probably 8-13" to it plus insane drifts. Try to enjoy the storm! AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 411 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011 STORM TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LATEST REMOTE SENSING AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE DEPICTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DOES NOT SERIOUSLY CONFLICT WITH EARLIER FORECAST/WARNINGS FOR THE IMPENDING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SET TO IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THIS EVENING. ECMWF/GFS/GEM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEPENING PROCESS OF MIDLEVEL BAROCLINIC SYSTEM WILL CEASE SHORTLY AROUND 6Z OVER PORTIONS OF IL AND IN. AFTERWARDS...MODELS DEPICT A SLIGHT UNRAVELING OR SHIFT EASTWARD OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY AND 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELD. AT ANY RATE...THIS DEEPENING INTO THE EVENING WILL BE ENOUGH TO SURGE THE MIDLEVEL EXTENSION OF THE WARM FRONT/DEFORMATION AXIS NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. IT IS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY WITHIN THE NORTH WALL OF THE TROWAL THAT THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES WILL FLOOD INTO THE REGION. DRY AIR SUB 5 KFT IN KDTX 18Z SPECIAL RAOB AND CONSENSUS OF MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS LENAWEE AND MONROE COUNTIES AT/AROUND 00Z. LATEST CONSENSUS TIMING OF 1-3 INCH PER HR RATES IS SET FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AT/AROUND 05Z. THESE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTED PER STRONG FGEN/DEFORMATION AND LOW STATIC STABILITY ABOVE 800-700MB. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OF ROUGHLY 3 TO 5 INCHES SOUTH OF M 59...AND ROUGHLY 1 TO 3 INCHES BETWEEN M 46 AND M 59. OVERNIGHT. THE SIGNIFICANT WOBBLE OF THE PV ANOMALY IS WELL FORECASTED TO TAKE THE HEART OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALL BULLSEYE IMMEDIATELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE 6-9Z TIMEFRAME. THIS IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RAPID EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF A TONGUE OF -1 TO 1C AIR BETWEEN 900-800MB THAT WILL CARRY THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WHILE THIS THETA E RIBBON AND MOST INTENSE 295 K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO MISS THE CWA...THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA IS EXPECTED TO WITNESS A SUBSTANTIAL WARM LAYER IN THE -4 TO -2 C RANGE. THIS IS A FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE FOR THE RIMING OF SNOWFLAKES IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG UVV RESPONSE AND SUPERSATURATION OF SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS. SO IN THE RELATIVE SENSE....A LIMITING FACTOR TONIGHT FOR EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LOW SNOW RATIOS (9:1 TO 11:1) GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE IRISH HILLS. FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHWARD...SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 12:1 TO 13:1. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A SOLUTION THAT BRINGS LONGER DURATION OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS/TROWAL ACROSS THE I 69 AND M 46 CORRIDORS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE RAPID PACE OF THE SYSTEM MOTION TODAY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THIS ZONE OF HIGHER UVV/S WILL SURGE INTO THIS REGION BEFORE WEAKENING APPRECIABLY. THUS...HAVE SHIFTED THE GREATER FORECASTED AMOUNTS NORTHWARD BETWEEN SAGINAW AND I 69. IT IS IMPORTANT TO STATE THAT IN STRONGER WIND EVENTS SUCH AS THIS BLIZZARD WARNING...IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET SNOW RATIOS MUCH HIGHER THAN 12:1 TO 14:1 BECAUSE OF THE FRACTURING OF SNOWFLAKES WHICH ALL RESULTS IN A GREATER COMPONENT OF SETTLING. THE OTHER MAJOR QUESTION MARK IN THIS TIMEFRAME IS THE ALWAYS RELEVANT DRY SLOT. LATEST LOOPED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT THAT IS LIFTING INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE UNUSUAL TONIGHT WITH OVERALL BEST UVV RESPONSE BEING CENTERED ABOVE 700 MB. THUS...ONE NEEDS TO BE CAREFUL GETTING TOO CAUGHT UP WITH LOOKING TOO LOW FOR THE DRY SLOT AS BEST LAPSE RATES ALWAYS RESIDE ABOVE 10 KFT. LATEST GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS AND 500MB PLAN VIEWS DEFINITELY SHOWS THIS WITH A DRY AIR INTRUSION ABOVE 600MB BETWEEN 9-12Z. PERSONAL BELIEF IS THAT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH...THE DRYSLOT SHOULD WEAKEN AND SHEAR OUT TO THE EAST AS WELL. HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS WILL LIKELY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MISS THE AREAS COMPLETELY AND SOME DISRUPTION TO THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES IS ANTICIPATED. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THUNDERSNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR DETROIT SOUTHWARD (WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE). TAKING THE DRYSLOT AND LOWER SNOW RATIOS INTO ACCOUNT...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 6-12Z ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES SOUTH OF M 59 AND 5 TO 8 INCHES TO THE NORTH. WEDNESDAY. AT 12Z...THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA OVER AND NORTH OF I 69. ALL MODELED INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE OCCLUDING PROCESS OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THIS AXIS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME TOMORROW MORNING. THE ORTHOGONAL MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM TO THIS AXIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO LIMIT DURATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE MORNING...WITH SNOWS LARGELY ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH PRIOR TO 12Z. ATTM...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED CWA WIDE AFTER 12Z. A STRONG JET CORE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE (SUB 4 KFT) AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH TONIGHT. A NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY OF WINDS DOWN SAGINAW BAY AND THE POTENTIAL MIXING SUPPORTS THE INCLUSION OF BAY AND MIDLAND COUNTIES IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING. THIS SUPPORTS THE CONTINUATION OF A BLIZZARD WARNING. THE BLIZZARD WARNING END TIMES HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK TO 8AM DETROIT SOUTHWARD AND TO NOON FOR THE FAR NORTH. IN TOTAL. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DETROIT AREA AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 10 TO 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE I 69 AND M 46 CORRIDORS. 8 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE TRI CITIES. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY RESIDUAL NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF THE WINTER STORM FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY PERIOD...AS THE MAMMOTH HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SPRAWLS EAST- NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A PIECE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS NOW PENETRATING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS WILL WORK EASTWARD... ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY TO THE DEGREE NOTED UPSTREAM /925 MB HOLD WITHIN THE -10 TO -12C RANGE/. GIVEN A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL GRADIENT... THE DEGREE OF COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO HOW WELL SKIES CAN CLEAR. DEEPER DRYING INTO THE COLUMN WOULD SUPPORT A DIMINISHING SKY FRACTION WITH TIME. THIS TRANSLATES INTO LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE 15-20F RANGE ON THURSDAY. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY PERIOD AS HEIGHTS CLIMB SLIGHTLY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEEPENS...BUT STILL INADEQUATE TO PUSH READINGS OUT OF THE BELOW NORMAL RANGE. THE INTERACTION OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A SHEARING SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL DICTATE HOW THE NEXT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EVOLVES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN TWO DISTINCT FEATURES AND CARRY THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ STRONGER FORCING WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE TO OUR EAST. THE ECMWF DOES SUGGEST SOME PHASING POTENTIAL AND A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. IN ANY CASE...SETUP FAVORS A LOWER END CHANCE FOR SNOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS SHOW A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY...AND MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH. A COLD POOL SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER MI BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS 500MB HEIGHTS NEAR 525DAM VS THE WARMER GFS. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE JET STREAM OVER THE APPALACHIANS BEING 10-15KT STRONGER ON THE ECMWF. THIS ACTION WILL STRENGTHEN THE SFC LOW OVER SRN QUEBEC. NW FLOW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WHICH WILL REMAIN LIGHT SUNDAY. TIMING DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO MODEL BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE SNOW TO THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUES. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE CURRENT EVENT...BUT STAY TUNED. 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