on_wx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm guessing they like the Woodstock-Sarnia corridor because the flat terrain will make it ideal grounds for blowing snow. But then the question is, why not upgrade Huron, Perth, and maybe Waterloo as well. Hamilton/Niagara got included because of the big amounts they're forecasting there, although they likely won't verify. btw, where did you get the text of the warning like you posted in the other thread? Flat terrain covers just about all of southern Ontario. Maybe it's because of the 402/401 corridor? But then, why not upgrade Kitchener to the GTA? Then, if you think about Hamilton and northern Niagara region as being included, is it even possible for those areas to experience blizzard conditions considering Hamilton is at the bottom of a deep valley, and Grimsby to St. Catharines corridor are protected by the same mountain? It's a mailing list from WxServer, didn't I PM you the details once? Not sure, heres a link: http://www.weatherserver.net/html/subscribe.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0327 PM SNOW HAVANA 40.30N 90.06W 02/01/2011 M6.0 INCH MASON IL CO-OP OBSERVER SNOW SO FAR...2 INCHES IN THE PAST HOUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 could you ask for a better winter MD? MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...SERN/CNTRL IA...NRN/CNTRL IL...SRN WI...NWRN IND...EXTREME SWRN MI CONCERNING...BLIZZARD VALID 012136Z - 020330Z HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE VERY POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES SHIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WELL-DEFINED/ASCENDING WARM CONVEYOR BELT WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW IS TRANSPORTING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TO THE NORTH OF THE IMPINGING DRY SLOT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING N/NEWD IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA INTO THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...AS RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SREF INDICATE VERY DEEP AND SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES /AOA 150 MB THICK/ COINCIDING WITH STRONG ASCENT. HOWEVER...RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR...POSSIBLY HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED IN A 120-MILE-WIDE CORRIDOR CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR QUINCY TO CHICAGO. IN THIS REGION...ENHANCED MESOSCALE BANDING IS EXPECTED...AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z NAM MODEL...WHICH INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF SLANTWISE INSTABILITY COINCIDING WITH FRONTOGENESIS-INDUCED ASCENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPRIGHT INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL IL AFTER 00Z AS 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AOA 7 C/KM. ADDITIONALLY...MESOSCALE BANDING WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BETWEEN CHICAGO AND THE WI BORDER DUE TO FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE NWRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SFC CYCLONE MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL SUPPORT STRONG NELY WINDS WITH GUSTS AOA 35 MPH...RESULTING IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE 19Z RUN OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN CAPTURING TRENDS OF THIS SYSTEM WELL...AND INDICATES THE HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 06Z...ENDING LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS NRN IL. ..COHEN/ROGERS.. 02/01/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 We will see....they are going conservative....I have lowered my totals some but still think a solid 10-14 is about right....especially with the potential for convective elements in the snow. Why all the downgrading? Storm looks to be on course for the most part. I think Dry slotting/Sleet action stays south of Downriver. I think 11-13 around Detroit. Up to 15" from 59 to 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Congrats Aleking!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hmm, I am interested in seeing the discussion for the HPC's latest snowfall/QPF forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuskegonMan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Left the house for a bit and got added to the blizzard warning while gone....... MASON-OCEANA-MUSKEGON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUDINGTON...HART...MUSKEGON355 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM ESTWEDNESDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 ChicagoWX, don't click Latest RUC has the 850 mb low tracking over LAF So does SPC though. Not that it matters anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The reasoning for these lower totals are explained in the discussions at IWX/GRR/DTX (all great reasons BTW). You can't base an entire forecast off fickle convective snows. I read the AFD's and yes I know that about the convective snow....the ratios will be higher than 9:1....and the "rule of thumb" is you go 2 inches either side of what you expect based of modified soundings which they must have done....I am saying based off of upstream obs....data....and bufkit....we will see when the final totals come out but I think EVERYONE in the southern half of their area will be in excess of 9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Why all the downgrading? Storm looks to be on course for the most part. I think Dry slotting/Sleet action stays south of Downriver. I think 11-13 around Detroit. Up to 15" from 59 to 69. I totally agree and disagree with power and DTX....we will see when the storm totals come out after the event....if I am wrong then I will admit it but right now the LOWEST I would go is 9 to 13.....they did say 8 to 14 in the web briefing though so they are at least "tipping their hand" to the higher range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmountainwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Very bad conditions here in Ottumwa,IA, 16.9F SN+ winds to at least 40mph.. I can honestly say these are some of the worst Ive ever saw. Being a east coaster that means alot. I have saw heavier rates like in feb 1983 we had 36" in 17 hrs.. But little wind, this may just take the cake. NWS have increased to possibly 20" storm total heaviest echos yet in MO, headed this way. Record snowfall for SE Iowa! Maybe, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Still heavy sleet Hoosier/Chicago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 getting some big time radar returns from BMI to LAF moving on up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Still heavy sleet Hoosier/Chicago? Make that blowing sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Still heavy sleet Hoosier/Chicago? Heavy sleet in Kokomo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Still heavy sleet Hoosier/Chicago? Sleeting like a mofo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Listening to WGN; it's not even funny how stupid some of these callers are. One guy called up saying that this snow isn't going to be bad at all and the guest had no credibility. His guest? Skilling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Flat terrain covers just about all of southern Ontario. Maybe it's because of the 402/401 corridor? But then, why not upgrade Kitchener to the GTA? Then, if you think about Hamilton and northern Niagara region as being included, is it even possible for those areas to experience blizzard conditions considering Hamilton is at the bottom of a deep valley, and Grimsby to St. Catharines corridor are protected by the same mountain? It's a mailing list from WxServer, didn't I PM you the details once? Not sure, heres a link: http://www.weatherse...l/subscribe.htm There's the escarpment/oak ridges further east, so I think areas closer to London are flatter than out my way. Plus when I said "flat terrain" I was also referring to the lack of man made barriers (here in the GTA we have a lot of buildings so it'd be harder to verify true blizzard conditions). Hamilton-Niagara depends on the winds. E/ENE winds like with this storm means there's nothing impeding stronger gusts as the winds are coming in off open Lake Ontario. Question is then why didn't Toronto/Peel/Halton get upgraded as those zones get the same effect off of Lk Ontario. And yeah, you sent me that link before, but last time I only registered for the OPSC discussion, not the weather alerts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Make that blowing sleet Yikes..no walking outside today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxnut Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Flat terrain covers just about all of southern Ontario. Maybe it's because of the 402/401 corridor? But then, why not upgrade Kitchener to the GTA? Then, if you think about Hamilton and northern Niagara region as being included, is it even possible for those areas to experience blizzard conditions considering Hamilton is at the bottom of a deep valley, and Grimsby to St. Catharines corridor are protected by the same mountain? It's a mailing list from WxServer, didn't I PM you the details once? Not sure, heres a link: http://www.weatherse...l/subscribe.htm Hamilton-St Catharines are not protected in this case since the NE winds will be coming full force off Lake Ontario.. they have the BEST chance of seeing blizzard conditions in Southern Ontario out of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 some intense snow falling here in far N Indiana. I'd guess about 2" since 3:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I read the AFD's and yes I know that about the convective snow....the ratios will be higher than 9:1....and the "rule of thumb" is you go 2 inches either side of what you expect based of modified soundings which they must have done....I am saying based off of upstream obs....data....and bufkit....we will see when the final totals come out but I think EVERYONE in the southern half of their area will be in excess of 9 inches. Fair enough. The ultimate thing that will make or break the forecast around here will be how consistent the snowfall rates are. We would need non-stop 1" per hour rates to reach in excess of 9 inches in such a short period of time (6-9 hours). While plausible, we also have to take note of our climo when considering the possibility, and our typical winter storms normally don't produces rates that high for so long. Flake size (ratios) will also be improtant too. It's going to be even harder to reach 9"+ withteh strong winds and the potential for riming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTZILLINOIS Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Still heavy sleet Hoosier/Chicago? Really disappointed. Have between an inch and two of sleet accumlated is all. 20 miles west or 20 miles north have a bunch of snow, and will be getting even more. They are still predicting 6-10 inches for us overnight but I don't see how???? Decatur Illinois - Macon County. Can someone explain?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hamilton-St Catharines are not protected in this case since the NE winds will be coming full force off Lake Ontario.. they have the BEST chance of seeing blizzard conditions in Southern Ontario out of this thing. Hey wxnut! Where's your location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 47MPH gust and PL FZFG BLSN at Champaign. SPECI KCMI 012138Z 04029G41KT 1/2SM PL FZFG BLSN BKN011 BKN018 OVC024 M07/M09 A2973 RMK AO2 PK WND 05041/2137 TWR VIS 1 PRESFR P0001 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heightspf1 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ameren Cilco power reports 33,000 without power. http://www.ameren.com/sites/aiu/OutageCenter/Pages/default.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 451 PM EST TUE FEB 01 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0450 PM HEAVY SLEET FRANKFORT 40.28N 86.51W 02/01/2011 M3.00 INCH CLINTON IN TRAINED SPOTTER WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS DUE TO SLEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just had a brief power hiccup.. Yes, the blowing sleet outside hurts like a mofo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Take it FWIW, but this says the mix line in east central IL and west central IN is moving north quite quickly. http://weatherobservatory.com/radar_grearth1.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hamilton-Niagara depends on the winds. E/ENE winds like with this storm means there's nothing impeding stronger gusts as the winds are coming in off open Lake Ontario. Question is then why didn't Toronto/Peel/Halton get upgraded as those zones get the same effect off of Lk Ontario. Hamilton-St Catharines are not protected in this case since the NE winds will be coming full force off Lake Ontario.. they have the BEST chance of seeing blizzard conditions in Southern Ontario out of this thing. Very well, if that were the case, it seems possible that Halton, Peel, Toronto, Durham, Northumberland, and Prince Edward counties will probably be added later. Think of it like svr tstorm or tornado watches, WFO Toronto always starts out with a couple counties, then by the end of the event the watch has expanded ten-fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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