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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 9


MidwestChaser

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Update from IND office.. They finally gave in to lowering snow totals around LAF..

The problem is that AFD talking about diminishing totals came an hour before the updated forecasts with 4-8" of snow. Makes no sense.

Anyway, I will mosey along as to not spoil the show for those enjoying the snow. For me this is another bitter pill to swallow. FML

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Sleet has been the story for me for the entire storm. Just a brief burst early on with the first wave. It really has been an epic disappointment.

We had an hour and a half of heavy snow yesterday, but since since it's been all sleet other than a few flakes mixed in from time to time. But correction, it's been an epic sleet storm. Sucks that it wasn't snow, but nothing we can do about it now. Embrace the sleet, it's the only sleet you got. ;)

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I think we're over 8" here by now. The heaviest snows didn't start till about 1pm, so that's averaging a little over an inch per hour. There have been times when the rates were even higher, but we've had some lighter periods mixed in as well. There's a band of very heavy snow rotating northwestward right at us. That's the band that nailed Peoria. Hopefully it pivots over us and stalls for awhile.

The heaviest begins to wane after 11pm, but light to moderate snows continue past sunrise. Looks like another 7-9" on the way if this next band performs well.

Looks like a pocket of yellow on the radar NE of Galesburg heading towards us.. Probably pass to your south--but you should be in the heavier green bands easily. I agree...I think we have 8 inches here as well...

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GRR update:

.SHORT TERM...(942 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011) (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS EVENING ONLY TO ADD SOME THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96. OTHERWISE NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR NOW.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRENGTHENING UPPER ENERGY MOVING OUT OF MO AND INTO THE IL AREA. STRONG DRY SLOT WAS SURGING NORTHWARD QUICKLY. ON THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY THIS COULD BE SEEN NICELY. THE TREND OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO HAS BEEN FOR A MORE NE TREND TO THE NRN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT...AND THIS SHOULD BECOME MORE ENE. THIS STILL COULD FLIRT WITH THE EXTREME SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA...HOWEVER WE THINK IT WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE FCST FOR NOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

IN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY JUST NORTH OF THE DRY SLOT...SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS IL. MODELS SHOW THE SLANTWISE INSTABILITY NICELY IN ELEVATED EPV PROGS WITH NEGATIVE VALUES IN THAT VICINITY. THAT AREA OF NEGATIVE EPV IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS SRN LOWER MI BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z TONIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW EXPECTED. THUS WE HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96.

CONDITIONS ARE QUITE NASTY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA WITH THE SNOW STILL SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS WHERE 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ARE NEAR THE MI/IN BORDER AND ARE MOVING NORTH. THE WINDS PICKED UP QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS APPEARING TO BE DOWNWIND OF THE NE TRAJECTORY OFF OF SAGINAW BAY. ALL OF THESE THINGS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A PERIOD OF NEAR BLIZZARD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA.

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I'm in a 35dBZ area right now and it sounds like hail hitting the windows the past few minutes.. Very audible.

I went outside to measure some drifts. 22-24" right now. To say this is a blinding storm would be an understatement, the minute I turned around facing east to head back into the house it felt like a sandblaster.

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Really??

Nope, really don't...in the northeast, you are lucky to see more than a few reporting stations that record true bliss conditions for 3+ hous, while this one okc to det will probably all meet the criteria. Topography too comes into play...the hills in the east will make true blizzard conditions tougher to meet in the northeast.

Northeast may get more snow in their storms, however, they cant hold a candle, IMO, to true bliss conditions experienced in the Midwest...look at the vids alek took. I don't remember seeing anything near that intensity in ny.

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DTX Update:

THE OVERALL SITUATION IS UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED WITH ABOUT THE ONLY FORECAST ADJUSTMENT ANTICIPATED BEING TO SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB AND MENTION A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PLAN TO HOLD THE LINE ON SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR POINTS SOUTH AND MAINTAIN A MODEST MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP NEAR THE OHIO BORDER BUT MOVE UP IN TIME. THE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW LEADING TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND SUPPORTIVE OF OUR GOING HEADLINES WITH LOW VISIBILITY AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS, PEAK WIND OF 51 KNOTS AT AURORA. CONVECTION HAS BEEN FILLING IN STRONGLY THROUGH THE SOUTH FLANK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROWAL AND COMMA HEAD COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS AND STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND WITH A MAGNITUDE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THIS FORCING AND PROJECT IT TO HOLD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH THROUGH OUR AREA AS THE TROWAL CONTINUES TO MATURE THROUGH THE OCCLUSION PROCESS OF THIS SYSTEM. CONCERNS RAISED IN THE EARLIER DISCUSSION REMAIN VALID REGARDING MICROPHYSICAL PROPERTIES AREAWIDE AND THE DRY SLOT IMPINGING ON THE DETROIT AREA. HOWEVER, WHILE SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY NOT OVERACHIEVE, THE IMPACT IN COMBINATION WITH THE WIND SUPPORTS THE CONTINUATION OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

854 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011

DISCUSSION

853 PM CST

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST/HEADLINES.

ITS NOT A FIT NIGHT OUT FOR MAN NOR BEAST. BLIZZARD OF 2011 UNDERWAY WITH TREACHEROUS CONDITIONS REPORTED ACROSS THE WFO CHICAGO FORECAST AREA. VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/4SM...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...THUNDER/LIGHTNING IN HEAVY SNOW...SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR HAVE ALL BEEN REPORTED FROM VARIOUS LOCATIONS. REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH SNOW EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATES...THIS IS A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING STORM.

WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS CLASSIC WINTER STORM ACROSS MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST IL THIS EVENING...WITH SFC LOW ANALYZED OVER FAR SERN IL. WIDE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST MO/EASTERN IA ACROSS NORTHERN IL INTO FAR NORTHERN IND/MICHIGAN PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TAKE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS IL AND INTO NORTHERN IN/OH BY 12Z WED...WITH DEFORMATION SNOW BAND AFFECTING FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. RADAR INDICATES THIS BAND HAS FILLED WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES OF LATE...WITH SEVERAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF THE IL CWA. BASED ON THIS HAVE NO REASON TO ADJUST SNOW AMOUNTS DOWNWARD AT ALL...AND WILL HOLD A STEADY COURSE WITH THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. STILL APPEARS GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CHICAGO METRO...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIG PROBLEM...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH NOT ONLY CAUSING ZERO VISIBILITIES BUT ALSO DAMAGE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

RATZER

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Had a couple big gusts in the last hour, and lo and behold what I see on radar.

You can see the gravity waves oriented parallel to the deformation band just south of Maquoketa, they are propagating away from the convection as you would expect.

Awesome returns for a snowstorm! Looks like a spring/summertime thunderstorm. This storm is truly awe-inspiring!!!

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GRR Update

.SHORT TERM...(942 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011)

(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS EVENING ONLY TO ADD SOME THUNDER

TO THE FORECAST FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96. OTHERWISE NO

OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR NOW.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRENGTHENING UPPER ENERGY MOVING OUT OF MO AND

INTO THE IL AREA. STRONG DRY SLOT WAS SURGING NORTHWARD QUICKLY. ON

THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY THIS COULD BE SEEN NICELY. THE TREND OVER

THE PAST HOUR OR SO HAS BEEN FOR A MORE NE TREND TO THE NRN EDGE OF

THE DRY SLOT...AND THIS SHOULD BECOME MORE ENE. THIS STILL COULD

FLIRT WITH THE EXTREME SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA...HOWEVER WE THINK IT

WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE FCST FOR NOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE

TO BE MONITORED.

IN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY JUST NORTH OF THE DRY SLOT...SOME THUNDER AND

LIGHTNING HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS IL. MODELS SHOW THE SLANTWISE

INSTABILITY NICELY IN ELEVATED EPV PROGS WITH NEGATIVE VALUES IN

THAT VICINITY. THAT AREA OF NEGATIVE EPV IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS SRN

LOWER MI BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z TONIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE HEAVIER

SNOW EXPECTED. THUS WE HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS ALONG AND

SOUTH OF I-96.

CONDITIONS ARE QUITE NASTY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA WITH THE

SNOW STILL SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING

SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS WHERE 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN

OCCURRING ARE NEAR THE MI/IN BORDER AND ARE MOVING NORTH. THE WINDS

PICKED UP QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS APPEARING TO

BE DOWNWIND OF THE NE TRAJECTORY OFF OF SAGINAW BAY. ALL OF THESE

THINGS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A PERIOD OF NEAR BLIZZARD TO

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA.

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