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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 9


MidwestChaser

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KLOT

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

823 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011

...LIFE THREATENING WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE REGION

ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH ACCUMULATION

RATES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. STORM TOTAL

SNOWFALL OF 10 TO 16 INCHES IS LIKELY TOWARD ROCKFORD AND DIXON.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE

MICHIGAN IN THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA AND INTO NORTHWEST

INDIANA WHERE 12 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY...WITH POSSIBLE

LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO TWO FEET.

THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED SNOW-PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS MAY

RESULT IN LOCALIZED INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON

FOR SNOWFALL RATES TO EXCEED 4 INCHES PER HOUR IN THUNDER SNOW

MAKING TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.

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Update from IND office.. They finally gave in to lowering snow totals around LAF..

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY EVOLVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS

DEEPENING LOW NOW AS OF 01Z LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

HEAVIER PRECIP SHIELD HAS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MUCH OF THIS FEEL AS

SLEET...WITH FREEZING RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. AS THE

WARMER SLUG OF AIR ALOFT ROTATES INTO THE REGION...THE TRANSITION

FROM SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN HAS STEADILY SHIFTED NORTH AND HAS NOW

LARGELY ENCOMPASSED THE INDY METRO WITHIN THE LAST HOUR.

HOWEVER...THE PRECIP RATES HAVE DROPPED OFF SUBSTANTIALLY FROM

EARLIER THIS EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT ALOFT IS LIMITING ICE

CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT.

RAPID REFRESH AND RUC BOTH LIFTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE

FORECAST AREA THROUGH 05Z...MUCH OF WHICH SHOULD FALL AS

SLEET/SNOW OVER FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...FREEZING RAIN OVER

CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND JUST RAIN MAINLY SOUTH

OF A SULLIVAN...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS LINE. BECAUSE OF THE SLEET

THAT FELL EARLIER THIS EVENING...FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE

A BIT DIMINISHED...WITH EXPECTATION OF AN ADDITIONAL TENTH TO

QUARTER INCH AT BEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL ADD A

THIN ICY GLAZE TO THE SLEET ACCUMULATION AND ESSENTIALLY TURN

EVERYTHING AT GROUND LEVEL TO CONCRETE. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE

ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS GOING

TO BECOME THE MAIN FACTOR. HAVE SEEN POWER OUTAGES INCREASE

SUBSTANTIALLY JUST WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO AND EXPECT THIS

TREND TO CONTINUE AS 35-45 MPH WIND GUSTS ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE

FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW. ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...

COMBINATION OF SLEET/SNOW WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO A

CONTINUATION OF NEAR WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS. HAVE DRASTICALLY CUT

SNOWFALL TOTALS DUE TO THE SLEET THAT FELL EARLIER AND MAY STILL

BE TOO HIGH.

32F LINE LIKELY TO RISE VERY CLOSE BUT JUST SOUTH OF I-70 BY LATE

EVENING BEFORE COLD AIR RUSHES IN QUICKLY IN WAKE OF THE LOW AFTER

MIDNIGHT. HAVE READJUSTED TEMP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS

THINKING...WITH QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT IN PLACE THIS

EVENING...FROM NEAR 20 DEG IN THE NORTH TO POSSIBLY LOWER 40S FOR

A BRIEF PERIOD OVER SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS THE COLDER AIR RUSHES

BACK IN...LEFTOVER PRECIP WILL TURN TO LIGHT SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT

ACCUMS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK AS BACK SIDE MOISTURE ROTATES INTO THE

FORECAST AREA.

FINALLY...AM LEAVING ICE STORM AND WINTER STORM WARNING HEADLINES

AS IS OVERNIGHT. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE TO CUT BACK ON SNOW AND

ICE ACCUM TOTALS. AS STATED ABOVE THOUGH...THE ADDITION OF THE

VERY STRONG WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL CAUSE AN

INCREASE IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND TREES WITH OUTAGES LIKELY.

WHILE THE FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS ORIGINALLY

THOUGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS TONIGHT. STAY SAFE.

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Local met on KWQC talking about the dry air moving in...actually, I see the dry air rotating westard..and wet filling into the area of dry air. starting to see some yellow just to our south and east...rotating our way....Hard to believe we only have about 7-8 inches....it's been coming down hard since it started.

I think we're over 8" here by now. The heaviest snows didn't start till about 1pm, so that's averaging a little over an inch per hour. There have been times when the rates were even higher, but we've had some lighter periods mixed in as well. There's a band of very heavy snow rotating northwestward right at us. That's the band that nailed Peoria. Hopefully it pivots over us and stalls for awhile.

What time does the NAM/RUC pull the system out of the QC's?

The heaviest begins to wane after 11pm, but light to moderate snows continue past sunrise. Looks like another 7-9" on the way if this next band performs well.

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