Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 yeah it is, and I don't ever remember there being a blizzard warning before. There's 3-4 foot drifts out there as well. It was 73 on Saturday. 3 days later, a Blizzard. Haha, that's the best part of it. Just like Chicago in the Jan '67 blizzard. Pushing 70º one day and two days later, 23" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 18z nam has 28" on bufkit for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well I am popping in over here... Solid sheet of ice down here in northern Cincinnati.. Temperatures are dropping to right around 28 degrees. its going to get a bit crazy soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Judging by the reports I'm getting from back home, I was assume this person doesn't know how to measure snow. 0255 PM SNOW BOURBONNAIS 41.16N 87.88W02/01/2011 M0.3 INCH KANKAKEE IL TRAINED SPOTTER PAST HOUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just relayed this report via CoCoRaHS to LOT: Visibility in town here in Geneva is near 1/4 mile in moderate falling snow and substantial blowing snow amid wind gusts to 40 MPH. In rural areas along Route 38 between Geneva and De Kalb, visibility was 1/4 mile at best in non-exposed areas where snow was not falling; was near zero closer to Geneva (near the end of my travels) as more moderate snow began falling. Needless to say, this is a fierce blizzard, and it has barely begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Am a bit surprised at the +SN obs from ORD given that the echos don't look that great on radar. Regardless, heavier stuff looks to be there shortly from radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Boone County going to Travel Warning at 7pm (no one but emergency personnel allowed out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It is painful to walk outside. Heavy sleet falling here. I don't see that we will get much freezing rain. Hopefully we are too far north. Still only about 20° here. Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 We will see....they are going conservative....I have lowered my totals some but still think a solid 10-14 is about right....especially with the potential for convective elements in the snow. The reasoning for these lower totals are explained in the discussions at IWX/GRR/DTX (all great reasons BTW). You can't base an entire forecast off fickle convective snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 KVIH 012125Z AUTO 29011KT 1/2SM -SN FZFG FEW006 BKN010 OVC020 M07/M08 A2967 RMK AO2 P0003 KVIH 012120Z AUTO 29010KT 3/4SM -SN BR BKN012 OVC020 M07/M08 A2966 RMK AO2 P0002 KVIH 012115Z AUTO 27011KT 1SM -SN BR BKN015 OVC022 M07/M08 A2967 RMK AO2 PRESRR P0001 KVIH 012107Z AUTO 35008KT 3/4SM -SN BR FEW012 BKN018 OVC023 M07/M08 A2961 RMK AO2 PRESRR P0001 KVIH 012053Z AUTO 01011KT 1/2SM -SN FZFG FEW005 SCT016 OVC022 M07/M08 A2959 RMK AO2 UPB08E12B48E50FZRAE1957B12E14SNB1957E08B14E48B50 SLP033 P0001 60014 T10721083 55050 KVIH 012032Z AUTO 36008KT 1/2SM -SN FZFG SCT005 OVC016 M07/M08 A2961 RMK AO2 UPB08E12FZRAE1957B12E14SNB1957E08B14 P0001 KVIH 012003Z AUTO 01012G24KT 1/2SM -SN FZFG BKN005 BKN011 OVC018 M07/M09 A2959 RMK AO2 FZRAE1957SNB1957 P0001 KVIH 011953Z AUTO 02015G20KT 1/2SM FZRA FZFG BKN005 BKN011 OVC018 M07/M08 A2959 RMK AO2 PK WND 02029/1927 UPB07E12B40E45FZRAB12E40B45SNE07 PRESFR SLP032 P0006 T10721083 Vichy/Rolla, MO. Gravity wave passage evident in observations now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Snowstormcanuck, you are right. The blizzard warning does look funny as just a narrow corridor running from Sarnia to Hamilton. They are talking at EC now of mixing around Lake Erie shores, might move system little northward. Putting KW, Toronto into stronger snows. This looks like it might even rival Jan. 1999 around here. Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It is painful to walk outside. Heavy sleet falling here. I don't see that we will get much freezing rain. Hopefully we are too far north. Still only about 20° here. Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Warm nose is progged to strengthen and edge northward, so I would expect the transition zone to do the same as we move through the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Snowstormcanuck, you are right. The blizzard warning does look funny as just a narrow corridor running from Sarnia to Hamilton. I'm guessing they like the Woodstock-Sarnia corridor because the flat terrain will make it ideal grounds for blowing snow. But then the question is, why not upgrade Huron, Perth, and maybe Waterloo as well. Hamilton/Niagara got included because of the big amounts they're forecasting there, although they likely won't verify. btw, where did you get the text of the warning like you posted in the other thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Am a bit surprised at the +SN obs from ORD given that the echos don't look that great on radar. Regardless, heavier stuff looks to be there shortly from radar. With the blowing snow it should be expected. The +SN is done when the vis is at or below 1/4SM....even if there are only flurries if the wind is blowing it is the observer's call to go either +SN BLSN or +SN FZFG....most observers usually go with the blowing snow in that situation.....but either way 1/4SM or lower has the heavy qualifier....1/2SM no qualifier....3/4SM or higher -SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0315 PM SNOW 5 W WATSEKA 40.78N 87.83W 02/01/2011 M4.5 INCH IROQUOIS IL TRAINED SPOTTER PAST 2 HOURS. HIGH WINDS AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Haha, that's the best part of it. Just like Chicago in the Jan '67 blizzard. Pushing 70º one day and two days later, 23" of snow. Yeah last year we had a snowstorm in March and 2 days later it was in the mid 70's, that's a rapid melt off. I thought it was about over but flake size has really increased and it's coming down good again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah last year we had a snowstorm in March and 2 days later it was in the mid 70's, that's a rapid melt off. I thought it was about over but flake size has really increased and it's coming down good again. 20" and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0315 PM SNOW 5 W WATSEKA 40.78N 87.83W 02/01/2011 M4.5 INCH IROQUOIS IL TRAINED SPOTTER PAST 2 HOURS. HIGH WINDS AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. Sick, very sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 They are talking at EC now of mixing around Lake Erie shores, might move system little northward. Putting KW, Toronto into stronger snows. This looks like it might even rival Jan. 1999 around here. Maybe EC updated the forecast at 4.18pm to put in the phrase "near blizzard conditions" for those of us not in the Bliz warning. Amounts won't come close to Jan 1999, I'm pretty confident of that, but with all the drifts piling up on people's driveway because of these winds, it'll feel like a lot more snow fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0315 PM SNOW 5 W WATSEKA 40.78N 87.83W 02/01/2011 M4.5 INCH IROQUOIS IL TRAINED SPOTTER PAST 2 HOURS. HIGH WINDS AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. Ok, these reports are getting a little out of hand. 0.3" in Kankakee County and 4.5" in Iroquois County? They have seen the same conditions the whole afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 323 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011 DISCUSSION 322 PM CST MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE OZARKS...PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE STEADILY INCREASED FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST TO SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS ALREADY PUSHING TO 35 TO 40 MPH. EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE WAS ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS...WIND WERE GUSTING BETWEEN 45 TO 55 MPH WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST IN PORTIONS OF TEXAS TO 60 MPH. VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WITH BUILDING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN IL/IN STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF STATES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME CORRECTION TO THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE MAIN SFC LOW...HOWEVER THE GREATEST CHALLENGE IS WHERE THE DRY INTRUSION DEVELOPS. THIS AFTN DRY AIR HAS ALREADY PUSHED NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI STRETCHING EAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. AFTN MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO HANDLE THE PRECISE LOCATION OF THE DRY AIR. IF THE DRY AIR CAN LIFT FURTHER NORTH THIS MAY RESULT IN LOWER SNOW TOTALS. THE OTHER CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE PRECISE LOCATION THAT THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SETUP. NAM12 3HR PRES CHG HAS SHOWN -4 TO -6 MB/3HR CHANGE...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. 500MB VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT NE ACROSS EASTERN MO/SOUTHEAST IA THIS EVE AS A NEGATIVE TILT WITH RESPECT TO THE SFC LOW CONTINUES. THIS SHUD PLACE THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND THE LOCATION OF THE DEFORMATION BETWEEN LAKE/NORTHERN COOK COUNTIES STRETCHING WEST THROUGH LEE/LASALLE COUNTIES. NOT TO MUDDY THE WATERS FURTHER...BUT MODELS HAVE SHOWN THAT THE DEPTH OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE HAVE THINNED. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS MAY BE A RESULT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE LLVL JET AT 60-70KTS MOVING OVERHEAD. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE...WE HAVE SEEN CONTINUED FEED OF ABUNDANT LLVL LAKE MOISTURE STREAMING SOUTHWEST. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE STREAMING OVERHEAD...EXPECT SOME SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM TO BE ENCOURAGING ENHANCED SNOW FOR COOK/LAKE/DUPAGE/KENDALL/KANE/WILL COUNTIES. AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED REGARDING THE CONVECTIVE NATURE ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEPICT 200-400J/KG OF CAPE OVER CENTRAL IL/IN. EARLIER THIS AFTN SCT LIGHTNING RETURNS HAVE SHOWN UP OVER MO...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE SLIDING NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA LATER THIS EVENING. QPF TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN ADJUSTED MUCH FROM EARLIER THINKING...SO EXPECT BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.5 INCHES OF TOTAL QPF THRU WED. WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS BTWN 10:1 TO 12:1 THIS EVE...AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY ARRIVE EARLY WED RATIOS WILL STEADILY CLIMB TO 15:1 TO 19:1. THE PEAK TIMES OF THE SNOWFALL CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z...HOWEVER THE WILDCARD CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE PRECISE PATH OF THE DRY AIR WILL PUSH. SNOWFALL RATES BTWN 2-3IN/HR AT THE ONSET CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED...AND WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SNOWFALL RATES COULD PUSH TO 4IN/HR DURING THE EXPECTED PEAK OF THE STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 sounds like I-70 is shutdown across most of missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 18z nam has 28" on bufkit for ORD. Thats not happening IMO, we'll see. so hard to forecast a record event. Plus its nowcasting time, forget the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ok, these reports are getting a little out of hand. 0.3" in Kankakee County and 4.5" in Iroquois County? They have seen the same conditions the whole afternoon. I may be jumping to conclusions, but I assume the 0.3" is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Never realized just how noisy heavy sleet can be.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...SERN/CNTRL IA...NRN/CNTRL IL...SRN WI...NWRN IND...EXTREME SWRN MI CONCERNING...BLIZZARD VALID 012136Z - 020330Z HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE VERY POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES SHIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WELL-DEFINED/ASCENDING WARM CONVEYOR BELT WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW IS TRANSPORTING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TO THE NORTH OF THE IMPINGING DRY SLOT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING N/NEWD IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA INTO THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...AS RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SREF INDICATE VERY DEEP AND SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES /AOA 150 MB THICK/ COINCIDING WITH STRONG ASCENT. HOWEVER...RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR...POSSIBLY HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED IN A 120-MILE-WIDE CORRIDOR CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR QUINCY TO CHICAGO. IN THIS REGION...ENHANCED MESOSCALE BANDING IS EXPECTED...AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z NAM MODEL...WHICH INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF SLANTWISE INSTABILITY COINCIDING WITH FRONTOGENESIS-INDUCED ASCENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPRIGHT INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL IL AFTER 00Z AS 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AOA 7 C/KM. ADDITIONALLY...MESOSCALE BANDING WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BETWEEN CHICAGO AND THE WI BORDER DUE TO FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE NWRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SFC CYCLONE MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL SUPPORT STRONG NELY WINDS WITH GUSTS AOA 35 MPH...RESULTING IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE 19Z RUN OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN CAPTURING TRENDS OF THIS SYSTEM WELL...AND INDICATES THE HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 06Z...ENDING LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS NRN IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Warm nose is progged to strengthen and edge northward, so I would expect the transition zone to do the same as we move through the evening. Freezing Rain area starting to move it looks like.. http://weatherobservatory.com/radar_grearth2.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This storm is ridiculous looking on satellite. Also, the reasoning for the poor model performance by the NAM very well could have been the convective parameterization scheme releasing a motherload of latent heat since it got out of control with forcing since it is non-hydrostatic. RGEM is also convectively parameterized but it is hydrostatic and did not suffer from such crippling errors. High res WRF- ARW/NMM are non-hydrostatic but are not using convective parameterization schemes since they actually model it explicitly within the dynamical equations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I may be jumping to conclusions, but I assume the 0.3" is wrong. Average the two, and you probably got a more correct total. If Iroquois County is pushing 5" now, they will be at 20" by midnight with all these heavier returns coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 ChicagoWX, don't click Latest RUC has the 850 mb low tracking over LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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