DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS is horrendous with 2m temps Yeah, but I'm talking in general. When have we ever bought the GFS over the high res models less than 24 hours out wrt temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That's obviously BS. Hard to believe the GFS when the NAM/SREF/Euro are all significant cooler. with southerly winds, I can easily see HVN-GON-PVD getting to 33-34...32 could get close to Hartford for a time...but yeah CT/MA border seems a little over done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 ok so harvey says 6-12" ?? who is going to be correct/ Hard for me to say Harvey with matts track record but have to admit he does seem too high so I would say 8-14 is a good bet going to be close if gfs qpf is correct than yeah I would say 12--18 gong to be fun regardless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 no chance really of that super heavy snow winding up south of the pike is there?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Harvey is 6-12 North for up in my area into Southern NH, (North of Rte 2) tomorrow. Todd on channel 4 was 9 to 12. Going to have to take many pictures tomorrow after this is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Still just below freezing here, windy too! We picked up another tenth or so of junk after 130pm. BTW was just watching Americans Funniest Home Videos from Sunday night. If any of you have it on the DVR check out the scene with the dancing couple at the beginning. Guy in the back is cutting a line of coke it looks like...nice job censors! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 ok so harvey says 6-12" ?? who is going to be correct/ Hard for me to say Harvey with matts track record but have to admit he does seem too high so I would say 8-14 is a good bet going to be close if gfs qpf is correct than yeah I would say 12--18 gong to be fun regardless! 6-12'' + 6-8'' that most got today = 12-20'', his original call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Does Rapid Refresh do a good job with snow/ice/rain? 9am tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 You see how the departing round 1 is trying to form a bridge to round 2. Gangbusters in the wee hours is my call. The snow down vs pl is the question and I still hold with some others that suggest the Pike is the battle gound. No way is this going into S NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Does Rapid Refresh do a good job with snow/ice/rain? 9am tomorrow. Is that rain up to Conway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Are you up at North Bridgton? What was your snowfall total today? 3" and still going steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 ok so harvey says 6-12" ?? who is going to be correct/ Hard for me to say Harvey with matts track record but have to admit he does seem too high so I would say 8-14 is a good bet going to be close if gfs qpf is correct than yeah I would say 12--18 gong to be fun regardless! Harvey's correct. He's the master. What did he say for our BOS-ORH Pike area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ok, time for a nap before a long night/early morning ahead. I think the steady precip is going to get back in here a bit sooner than models have it. Might favor the faster GFS for qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin1927 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Harvey's correct. He's the master. What did he say for our BOS-ORH Pike area? Boston was on the 2-4/4-6 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NB-Weather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just went outside to check the condition.. still freezing drizzle, everything is coated with ice. Sidewalks are coated, the roadway has a thin cover on it.. Can't even open the door of car completely frozen solid.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 18z GFS looks like it went a little colder early tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Is that rain up to Conway? Look at the shading overlay. Blue snow, red ice, green rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 6.5" of new snow from event #1. Currently a light freezing drizzle. Second round should move in here around 1 AM or so. Looks like central Berkshire County will be right in the battle zone for sleet vs. snow. If dynamics can offset the warming from WAA during the height of the event, we should do well. Otherwise, pingers get in here during the heaviest of the snow and hold accums down. Based on QPF and soundings, I'm going for 4 to 6 inches before IP toward the CT line, 6 to 8 before IP in the middle near and just above the Pike, and 8 to 10 in the northern areas near the VT line. North of there could be 10 to 12. However, if the pingers hold off until the dry slot moves in, the amounts will be a bit higher. I'm going to need all 42.4 degrees of latitude with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Checking the soundings in a bit more detail for GFS 18z, it looks like all snow through hr 21 with some really heavy precip and the flip around 24 is right when it's winding down. Perhaps it's dynamics ftw? So even the torchy GFS gives us some good front end snow, good sign imo. Here's the 21z sounding which is 15Z wednesday - 10 am?? Storm really scoots out pretty fast Even at 24Z it's pretty close to isothermal at 0C but it's clearly dried out in the snow zone (Green line for those who don't read these things much is dewpoint) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Is that rain up to Conway? No...blue horizontal lines are snow. Green vertical are rain. The diagonals are ice (not sure if they distinguish from PL and FZRA though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Boston was on the 2-4/4-6 line. Ugly! Hope for a better trend but heck...another 4 after today is ok. We'll be around 70 for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 18z GFS looks like it went a little colder early tomorrow? It's even colder than the NAM at 12z and then it rockets the mix/rain line N like a bat outta hell. I just don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS has a bias that many people who know the models knows. It likes to put the precipitation field/ area coverage way to far out from its' center. That being said; The GFS amounts with a tighter blob of precipitation like the NAM has it seems to be a better forecast. That means Harvey Leonard's map is probably correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ok, time for a nap before a long night/early morning ahead. I think the steady precip is going to get back in here a bit sooner than models have it. Might favor the faster GFS for qpf. Im Thinking of trying to fall asleep by 9pm and get up around 4-5am. Im fine missing some but it should be fun to track. 5-9" is my call here. If we somehow stay snow up till 11am or noon...9"...if it sleets around 8-9 am...5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 RUC is trending colder each run, looks like snow west north and east of Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Checking the soundings in a bit more detail for GFS 18z, it looks like all snow through hr 21 with some really heavy precip and the flip around 24 is right when it's winding down. Perhaps it's dynamics ftw? So even the torchy GFS gives us some good front end snow, good sign imo. Here's the 21z sounding which is 15Z wednesday - 10 am?? Storm really scoots out pretty fast Even at 24Z it's pretty close to isothermal at 0C but it's clearly dried out in the snow zone (Green line for those who don't read these things much is dewpoint) Thanks for checking that. Good man! I still think we book an xtra 6+ but Harv giving me pause.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 WTH are some mets thinking? Bruchard doesn't have this starting till 7am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Look at the shading overlay. Blue snow, red ice, green rain... No...blue horizontal lines are snow. Green vertical are rain. The diagonals are ice (not sure if they distinguish from PL and FZRA though). Oh, ok. The blue splotches confused me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin1927 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Harvey: 50/50 chance Boston goes above freezing tomorrow afternoon. Even chance we could stay in 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Boston was on the 2-4/4-6 line. Yesterday someone joked that BOS may get more in the 1st round than the 2nd round... Looks like we got 6"+ in the metro region Tues. Still think copious qpf before a mix will produce Wednesday midnight-10am, even if a mix happens by 10am and Messenger wins his dinner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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