Dave5 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 How much are you guys expecting for BOS from tomorrows storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Between 2 and 15" if you listen to local mets. How much are you guys expecting for BOS from tomorrows storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 5.5 from round 1 Ended as sleet/snow needles and freezing drizzle So I guess Ekster wins the bet since there was zr though I don't think that's how he was thinking I'd get it. Congrats Mike Same here with 4 , somehow the pingers were just awesome, another fantastic winter day in the benchmark winter of 11. Funny watching the models back off the torches one day at a time. Destiny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think cold tends to be undercalled in these SWFE event overrunning snows like this. I think low level cold is under-forecast, while mid-level warming is also under-forecast. Result is a larger area of sleet than progged... with less freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Trouble in Boston paradise again: BarryWBZ Barry Burbank Gargantuan amounts of snow NOT in the cards tomorrow... thanks to weakening storm, a mix and faster movement Seems like it's Matt vs. Barry again. Did he remove it already? Not seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ryan what are you forecasting for additional snowfall/sleet amounts tomorrow/tomorrow night? 1-3" maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 LOL, which is it? lol I know right... "in Matt I trust" too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nah still there. 7 Minutes ago. Did he remove it already? Not seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS remains warm. 24 hours has sleet to NH border or north 10 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Same here with 4 , somehow the pingers were just awesome, another fantastic winter day in the benchmark winter of 11. Funny watching the models back off the torches one day at a time. Destiny I'm hoping for 2-4 tomorrow before the changeover..Snowbanks are monstrous after shovelling today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 From the NECN site... Wednesday... Snow for many- blizzard conditions possible in NH and ME - mixing with sleet and freezing rain south of Route 2 in Northern MA, and changing to rain at the South Coast. Accumulations of 1-3 feet for many, dependent upon location, less south of the Massachusetts Turnpike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What people need to realize about tomorrow is that the large model QPF was including today's event. Even the NMM and ARW run at 12z today will include a lot of today's QPF in their model runs. People keep saying models are slashing QPF but what is actually occurring is that it already fell out of the sky. Now we are onto storm number 2, which is a fast moving SWFE and its very hard to get QPF over 1.25" with those systems. I suspect we see a fairly widespread .75-1" QPF tomorrow with everyone seeing about the same... just depends on p-type and ratios to see who gets the most actual snow accumulation. The NAM actually did lower amounts by 0.25" for much of NH comparing 06z Wed-06z Thurs QPF fields from the 12z/18z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 so all the forecasts except for necn that i see..call for mimimum two part totals of a foot or better in the spfd area..so that means a quick four to six inches at least before mixing tomorrow but while I want to believe it I am not sure if I really do believe it. Most of the forecasts also have foot plus down through much of northern ct which i find even harder to believe but we will see. necn calls for two part total of six to twelve inches in my area..so it its all ice they are still correct lol and if there is that thump of snow before the ice they are still correct..i think that is the smart forecast. When i say two part total i mean from pt one and two combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Mix of all p-types in boston - 50% sn- 30% ip 20% misty zr, ehh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Good short term from ALY. .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 430 PM EST... TOMORROW...AN INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE...WITH A NEW SFC CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A DUAL JET STREAK COUPLING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ONGOING WITH HVY SNOWFALL. THE H850-700 2D FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NAM/GFS IS VERY STRONG. THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE GFS WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MOVING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT. WE LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COLDER GFS THERMAL PROFILES. CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST. WE ADDED A CHANCE OF SLEET IN THE EARLY PM. LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO SLEET BY THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY PM. WE ARE MOST CONCERNED ABOUT SOME ICING ACROSS NW CT...AND THE SRN PORTIONS OF DUTCHESS AND ULSTER COUNTIES. WE ARE EXPECTING A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF GLAZE ON TOP OF 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG QG OMEGA GENERATED BY THE DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL AND VORTICITY ADVECTIONS. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON IS VERY IMPRESSIVE. THE V WIND ANOMALIES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE UTILIZED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC. SOME CSTAR BANDING MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SECONDARY LOW TAKING CONTROL AROUND SHORTLY NEAR NOONTIME. THE BEST SNOW GROWTH IN THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OF -12C TO -18C FOR AGRREGATING SNOW FLAKES WILL BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. ALSO...SOME SLANTWISE MOIST SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SPC HAS THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE EXPECT A TERRIBLE MORNING COMMUTE WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON THE GROUND BY THE LATE MORNING. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 20S AND POSSIBLY L30S NEAR KPOU. TOTAL ADDITIONAL QPF STILL APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THU MORNING. WED NIGHT... COLDER AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST AND ALOFT. THE SNOW ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE LOW AND MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL LINGER WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE ARE EXPECTING 8 TO 16 INCHES OF NEW SNOW TO OCCUR FROM TUE NIGHT TO WED NIGHT WITH AN AVG SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO OF 12:1 /HIGH PROBS FROM THE ROEBBER NEURAL NETWORK/ FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS...GREATER CAPITAL REGION...AND THE NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. IF WE MIX WITH MORE SLEET WE WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE NEW SNOW RANGE. THE ERN CATSKILLS WILL GET AND ADDITIONAL 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW WITH 5-10" OF SNOW AND SLEET OVER THE CNTRL TACONICS...AND THE SRN BERKS. THU-THU NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE FLATTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY. A BRIEF LAKE EFFECT SIGNAL MAY CAUSE SOME FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF ALBANY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MORE OF THE POLAR VARIETY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN THE MTNS. IF THE SKIES CLEAR OUT...WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THU NIGHT...THEN LOWS WILL PLUMMET IN THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT WITH LOWS ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE TO THE SOUTH.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Trouble in Boston paradise again: BarryWBZ Barry Burbank Gargantuan amounts of snow NOT in the cards tomorrow... thanks to weakening storm, a mix and faster movement Seems like it's Matt vs. Barry again. Well..we know of who won the last one...so...the writing is on the wall..and honestly..the freaken storm is not even here yet and the models are somewhat trending colder..and you gotta watch where the secondary forms.. I am so sick of Mets hugging just one model and running with it...and last there will be no rain in Boston...maybe the South Coast or RI or the Cape..but not the northern plymouth county areas..Hull to Cohasset and up to the North Shore...its insane.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS torches the h850s with a late and north redevelopment of the primary low - ip to NH/MA border at hr 24 The big question remains though, how much snow fell before the IP or ZR switch. Bigger question remains - is the GFS on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well..we know of who won the last one...so...the writing is on the wall..and honestly..the freaken storm is not even here yet and the models are somewhat trending colder..and you gotta watch where the secondary forms.. I am so sick of Mets hugging just one model and running with it...and last there will be no rain in Boston...maybe the South Coast or RI or the Cape..but not the northern plymouth county areas..Hull to Cohasset and up to the North Shore...its insane.. It will rain on the South Coast and the tip of Cape Ann Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 18Z GFS about 15 miles more north with sleet at 24hr Burbank hitting sleet in Boston hard... http://twitter.com/BarryWBZ# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 upton finally just changed its snow forecast...wow did they bust bad on amts...i had the most warm fuzzy feeling looking at those ten inch amts in the northern areas ...in fact they had up to fifteen inches in parts of orange cty ny!!! big big bust for upton..is climo starting to rear its ugly head for that area?? i still need another fifty inches or so to be in the nyc metro ballpark comparitivley speaking for seasonal totals to date but if i was a betting man i would say climo is probably gonna rear its ugly head up here too before such a feat can be accomplished but maybe there is something big down the line in march after we torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Eric is right...Matt Noyes says basically 12-18'' new N of Rt. 2 tomorrow. I don't know about that. Seems a little aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 upton finally just changed its snow forecast...wow did they bust bad on amts...i had the most warm fuzzy feeling looking at those ten inch amts in the northern areas ...in fact they had up to fifteen inches in parts of orange cty ny!!! big big bust for upton..is climo starting to rear its ugly head for that area?? i still need another fifty inches or so to be in the nyc metro ballpark comparitivley speaking for seasonal totals to date but if i was a betting man i would say climo is probably gonna rear its ugly head up here too before such a feat can be accomplished but maybe there is something big down the line in march after we torch Increasing sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Eric is right...Matt Noyes says basically 12-18'' new N of Rt. 2 tomorrow. I don't know about that. Seems a little aggressive. Not so crazy with GFS qpf if it doesn't taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Title is wrong, he made it clear this is all of tomorrow's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 wow gfs has 2m temps over 32 to the ct/ma border at 24hrs...ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 From the NECN site... Wednesday... Snow for many- blizzard conditions possible in NH and ME - mixing with sleet and freezing rain south of Route 2 in Northern MA, and changing to rain at the South Coast. Accumulations of 1-3 feet for many, dependent upon location, less south of the Massachusetts Turnpike Are you up at North Bridgton? What was your snowfall total today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Is Boston 6 or 9? Title is wrong, he made it clear this is all of tomorrow's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 wow gfs gives us alot of QPF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 wow gfs has 2m temps over 32 to the ct/ma border at 24hrs...ouch That's obviously BS. Hard to believe the GFS when the NAM/SREF/Euro are all significant cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 That's obviously BS. Hard to believe the GFS when the NAM/SREF/Euro are all significant cooler. GFS is horrendous with 2m temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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