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Epic winter signal continues to beam, part VI


ORH_wxman

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All and all it really still looks like that initial first suggestion I made in that first "Epic winter signal" thread to me ... Which is to say, ZR event for CT-RI, IP/SNOW battles between there and perhaps midway between Rt poop and the Pike, and lot of snow for the northern half of Mass into S VT/NH.

looks like i'll still be in the battle zone

i think FZ Drizzle may be quite the issue tonite in areas where temps are in the teens. I hope mets hammer this since people may think it's a great time to go outside laer.

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Of course I am 1 town south of Rte "Poop"... let the battle commence (I'm thinking 90% snow, but that is ok...plenty more to come!)

Well there's Rt 2 and then there's Rt 2.

It does a pretty good turn to the SE once you get past Gardner. I think that frequently the "above rt 2" references are really what's transpiring inside 495 where it really begins to take that southern bend.

Just sayin....:)

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Will do you think there will be enough mid level cooling and lift to start things off as snow south of the pike before marbles?

Yeah I think so....but it might not last more than an hour or two. We'll have to see as we go through the evening hours how much potential cooling there is. There is a slight bit of cooling behind this first system and then in addition to that, there is some potential for dynamical cooling for a few hours.

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Well there's Rt 2 and then there's Rt 2.

It does a pretty good turn to the SE once you get past Gardner. I think that frequently the "above rt 2" references are really what's transpiring inside 495 where it really begins to take that southern bend.

Just sayin....:)

Yeah, we do fine here, despite being southerners... Winchedon should do well (N of 2)

We used to have a poster or 2 from there on Eastern

I am about 1.5 miles from Gardner border

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Yeah I think so....but it might not last more than an hour or two. We'll have to see as we go through the evening hours how much potential cooling there is. There is a slight bit of cooling behind this first system and then in addition to that, there is some potential for dynamical cooling for a few hours.

Do you think the sleet makes it this far north?:yikes:

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He's been great this winter... I wouldn't count him out. It's been him against the models and the rest of the Boston Mets, and he's been on his A game. If he's wrong this time, at least he's prepared everyone for the worst. And if he's right, everyone else will eat crow again.

He specifically said additional.

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Yesterday's models had the H85 line coming up to the Pike at the end of round 1. That appears to have verified well based on some of the reports. I'll know when I go outdoors. It then sinks back to the S coast but the question is how fast and far north it charges in the morning as the lift goes like gangbusters. Big battle zone...and a fascinating one. Remember those summer days when all the progs get rid of the cool dank air? Not so easy sometimes. Not sure that's a good comparison but I think cold tends to be undercalled in these SWFE event overrunning snows like this.

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As for the Nam dropping qpf tomorrow.. that is just standard 18z Nam at its best.. 00z will def come in more juiced.. what tells me it will is that the GFS is actually has actually more qpf for storm two than the Nam, which usually never happens.. I trust gfs Qpf here and its about 1.25-1.50 tomorrow for SNH...

Also, take a look at the the NMM and ARW.. its been great with QPF lately, and it drops 1.25-1.50 for SNH..

What people need to realize about tomorrow is that the large model QPF was including today's event. Even the NMM and ARW run at 12z today will include a lot of today's QPF in their model runs.

People keep saying models are slashing QPF but what is actually occurring is that it already fell out of the sky. Now we are onto storm number 2, which is a fast moving SWFE and its very hard to get QPF over 1.25" with those systems. I suspect we see a fairly widespread .75-1" QPF tomorrow with everyone seeing about the same... just depends on p-type and ratios to see who gets the most actual snow accumulation.

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