40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 BOX has posted a map. That distribution should be much more even.....way too high up n and a bit low down s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Back edge of main precip shield about to enter W CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 HFD is over to sleet.Won't be too much longer now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Congrats!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 WEAK COOLING IN ALONG A LINE FROM KPSF E TO KBOS HAS ALLOWED FOR A DROP IN LLVL MOISTURE AND THUS WET BULB IS BELOW FREEZING IN COLUMN FROM THIS LINE AND N. WHILE THICKNESS THEORY SUGGESTS PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO A MIX OF FZRA AND PL ACROSS MAJORITY OF CWA...THE WET BULB ZERO LINE SUGGESTS MOSTLY SNOW REMAINING DOMINANT P-TYPE JUST S OF THIS LINE AND N THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY HIGH OMEGA ALONG FRONTOGENETICAL BAND SUGGESTS DYNAMIC COOLING COULD OVERCOME WARMING N OF THIS LINE. AS A RESULT HAVE MANUALLY ADJUSTED WX TOWARD THIS SOLN. THIS AGREES WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT N OF MA PIKE TO REMAIN MOSTLY SN THROUGH THE EVENT AWT - I was hammering this point over and over but people kept banging the sh*t out of the RUC and NAM saying ORH would be 90% sleet .. GFS had a snow sounding all the way basically until the dry slot. SN - but vis is probably ~1/2" - might be some bad snow in there since the radar is nearly 25 dbz which was much lower vis yesterday with the good snow. Meso analysis page says 850s have hit a brick wall all the way down around messenger's fanny. Per models they should start rising rather quickly up the coast but that remains to be seen. School operating under normal hours Can't wait for this T ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Deff at least mod snow...although I can't tell vis very well in the dark. Temp steady at 17F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 2.5" inches of new snow and ripping +SN right now. Nice to wake up to this after some shuteye. Not sure how long I can hold of the pingers as I'm wondering if that yellow just west of me Columbia County NY is PL. Mid-level warming can come up the west side of the Berks faster in these types of these situations than it does east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 BTW did this SW flow event not hit the model bias to a "T"? NAM was ridiculous cold and snow down to the CT shore at 48-66h...then steadily warmed. Pretty typical of a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Back edge of main precip shield about to enter W CT Yet BOX seems MHT picking up a quick 15..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Congrats!!! Thanks--it's ripping attm. Decent but not great flakes, but pouring down. We'll need ot have a separate thread set up for Saturday. Sounds like consensus for something between a CC and Nantucket track? Guess a low-end type deal at this point possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 BTW did this SW flow event not hit the model bias to a "T"? NAM was ridiculous cold and snow down to the CT shore at 48-66h...then steadily warmed. Pretty typical of a SWFE. Yep....like I said, this event was a simple forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yep....like I said, this event was a simple forecast. Any of the mets here will tell you this was one of the more difficult events they've ever had to forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Man did the GFS fail miserably on this as far as temp profiles..useless Disagree - GFS had a snow sounding all the way until the dry slot for mby - it torched the mid levels after the precip moves out. BOX mentions this and initialized with GFS profiles! but also mentions that it seems that even though the GFS was aggressive on dynamic cooling it wasn't aggressive enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 BTW did this SW flow event not hit the model bias to a "T"? NAM was ridiculous cold and snow down to the CT shore at 48-66h...then steadily warmed. Pretty typical of a SWFE. Yeah that hasn't changed I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 HFD is over to sleet.Won't be too much longer now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yep....like I said, this event was a simple forecast. The second RD is probably less than we thought a couple of days ago. I'll take my extra 3-5 and be happy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 You can see the ice on the trees and snow in BDR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Just a reminder for those reporting snowfall totals... Please include your storm total...don't just report what you've received new from part two...this is all counting as one storm and in the PNS will be listed as one storm. It makes it much more easier for the person who writes the PNS to have the storm total, rather than just getting total from this round and having to scramble looking back at what occurred from round one and trying to add things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The second RD is probably less than we thought a couple of days ago. I'll take my extra 3-5 and be happy though. Yea.....the total mounts were AWT, but the distribution was a bit different.....NBD, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Any of the mets here will tell you this was one of the more difficult events they've ever had to forecast It actually was fairly straight forward for a SWFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It actually was fairly straight forward for a SWFE Right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It actually was fairly straight forward for a SWFE Will and Scott both posted for days what a difficult forecast this was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yeah that hasn't changed I guess. It was a point of discussion between Ekster and I during many late night discussions during '07-'08 winter...as we eventually hashed out the SWFE climo. Its seemed to work pretty well since then....as we both absolutely nailed the 12/19/08 event the next winter. But obviously each event has its own circumstances...but it was amazing how much we discussed it and came up with these biases that are now thrown around as common knowledge and seem to work well. Not to make us sound great or anything...but I always thought those '07-'08 winter talks late at night between us created some good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 First pings now are mixing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Any of the mets here will tell you this was one of the more difficult events they've ever had to forecast i'm thirsty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Will and Scott both posted for days what a difficult forecast this was Well at least here in CT it wasn't an overly tough one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 First pings now are mixing in yesssssssssssssssssss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 First pings now are mixing in You should have betwn 2 and 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Complete hockey rink outside. I would estimate .4 of ice on all surfaces, come first light should be some epic scenes from coastal ct (at least west of the ct river) very rare event down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 i'm thirsty. You win cuz I had freezing drizzle yesterday afternoon..though that's not how you envisioned it happening. You said .25 of zr here...Regardless you win. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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