40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I would love to end as frz drizzle...nice cap...you think, Will....I like my chances... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 HFD over to 1/2 SN now...Ryan can you confirm? Thats a low vis, so there must be at least 80% flakes even if there's still pellets mixed in. Congrats on 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I noticed the irony part right after I replied...thought maybe that's what you meant. Well at that pace precip could start winding down here in CT by mid morning...maybe 10ish? Given it's 4:00 AM now and most reports are IP/SN here in CT we may not see any major issues with icing. In the same respect many may have no issue with the snowfall No way these grandiose 12"+ calls are verifying with such a small precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Heavy band is here Heavy ip/zr a few mangled flakes as well, its got to be snowing just inland now with these dynamics more ZR than before? any accretion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yeah I think the heavy precip was close to finished by 10-12pm there...though the leftover frdz, beyond the heavy heavies sn/ip/zr could be an understated issue, too. Yeah this is a good point...this is still a difficult forecast here...thought it would be anyway regarding the ice threat but it seems the latest trends over the past few hours are for less in the way of major issues. Incredible how quickly thinking can change I would think if were not predominately ZR by 6:00 AM at the latest we will avoid major issues in CT as far as ZR goes. Were still probably going to have issues with roof collapses today though, especially up in MA where the heaviest snowfall totals will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yeah Will... all snow here. Maybe a stray pinger or two. 6z NAM keeps us snow through 11z or so. Then quickly to ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The majestic mountains of Bedford, NH must have gotten to BIrving's head the last few days. Yeah, you know, I'm the IMBY type whos whole posting repitoire revolves around this one spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Just woke up to check the obs etc. 18.5/18 SN looks like about 1" new here. Looking at the radar over upstate NY I don't think I should go back to bed b/c it looks like it may be ripping here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 In the same respect many may have no issue with the snowfall No way these grandiose 12"+ calls are verifying with such a small precip shield. Mets on here did a great job with the forecast on this...many mentioned it would be extremely difficult to get those upper end totals with this kind of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Anyone concerned about the dry slot at ABE? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Anyone have a rough estimate as to when the heavier precip. will reach E. Mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Anyone concerned about the dry slot at ABE? lol Where in West Hartford are you right now? Outside the station or some place else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Heavy band is here Heavy ip/zr a few mangled flakes as well, its got to be snowing just inland now with these dynamics This is basically what happened to me...I started as an IP/ZR mix but then transitioned over to all freezing rain. It's currently a moderate freezing rain here 25.9/25, looks cool outside but definitely a dangerous situation unfolding for the CT shoreline, NYC metro, N NJ, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Where in West Hartford are you right now? Outside the station or some place else? at the station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Anyone concerned about the dry slot at ABE? lol Its going to race in here so fast. We are dryslotted by noontime i think, perhaps sooner...especially SW near you. That could help snow accums and also limit the ice somewhat in CT. Duration is always a big factor in ice storms and this doesn't look like a long one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 more ZR than before? any accretion? as this very heavy band came in more ZR has mixed in, its probably 50/50 now ip/zr mix. Ice is building up quickly now, its getting ugly fast, have kept the fire going all night in case of outages, have to get some shut eye now, my 7 and 2 yr old will be waking me up shortly. good luck to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 at the station Ok, that's what I thought looking at the background. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Heavy snow in Union, CT...just called the guy. At least moderate anyway since its often over estimated on intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Just woke up to check the obs etc. 18.5/18 SN looks like about 1" new here. Looking at the radar over upstate NY I don't think I should go back to bed b/c it looks like it may be ripping here soon. Same on wake up and snow. Coming down fiarly good, though the flakes aren't great attm as far as I can tell without having had any coffee. Any quick synoposis from GFS onward to safe 35 pages of catch up reading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Its going to race in here so fast. We are dryslotted by noontime i think, perhaps sooner...especially SW near you. That could help snow accums and also limit the ice somewhat in CT. Duration is always a big factor in ice storms and this doesn't look like a long one. Will, do you think the radar is going to fill in as the weak coastal low develops? It seems as if the precipitation is racing through at this point, can't see how it continues down here into early afternoon as forecasted unless we get a serious redevelopment of banding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 GFS gets kudos for the model to bring in precip the fastest...NAM choked on that aspect. Way too slow. But as we thought from MEkster and I's SWFE cook book....the snow comes in sooner and so does the sleet. Precip always seems to race in sooner than models give it credit for during SWFEs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Report of a roof collapse in Cranston, RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Will, do you think the radar is going to fill in as the weak coastal low develops? It seems as if the precipitation is racing through at this point, can't see how it continues down here into early afternoon as forecasted unless we get a serious redevelopment of banding? No, i dont think huge precip will redevelop...there will be some low level crap though. The mid-level forcing races north. Doesn;t mean precip shuts off, but the big stuff does. Mid-levels drive the big precip and that is long gone to the northeast pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Had to walk outside, its not good, not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I think most of this is snow and I grab a quick 6" or so, then it essentially shuts down shop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Had to walk outside, its not good, not good at all. ZR? we are def. more PL than SN after a 30 minute burst of mod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 No sound is being emitted from Channel 30...technical difficulties? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Same on wake up and snow. Coming down fiarly good, though the flakes aren't great attm as far as I can tell without having had any coffee. Any quick synoposis from GFS onward to safe 35 pages of catch up reading? Mike, looks to my untrained eye that mid-levels stay cold enough here for mostly snow. Fast mover though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 ZR? we are def. more PL than SN after a 30 minute burst of mod. Over to pellets in HFD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 No, i dont think huge precip will redevelop...there will be some low level crap though. The mid-level forcing races north. Doesn;t mean precip shuts off, but the big stuff does. Mid-levels drive the big precip and that is long gone to the northeast pretty quickly. Thanks! It appears there's some light ZR showers developing over PA but the steady/heavy precipitation is dying out...As is normal in a SWFE, the storm arrives and departs faster than expected. Seen this a million times in Vermont; it's almost the opposite of a Miller A coastal in which you become impatient as the snow crawls up the coast. We may avoid any liquid if this is out of here by mid-morning. It's too bad there's one more line of heavy precipitation coming since it's all ice at this point, not a great sign for power lines and road conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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