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Epic winter signal continues to beam, part VI


ORH_wxman

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I noticed the irony part right after I replied...thought maybe that's what you meant.

Well at that pace precip could start winding down here in CT by mid morning...maybe 10ish? Given it's 4:00 AM now and most reports are IP/SN here in CT we may not see any major issues with icing.

In the same respect many may have no issue with the snowfall :lol: No way these grandiose 12"+ calls are verifying with such a small precip shield.

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Yeah I think the heavy precip was close to finished by 10-12pm there...though the leftover frdz, beyond the heavy heavies sn/ip/zr could be an understated issue, too.

Yeah this is a good point...this is still a difficult forecast here...thought it would be anyway regarding the ice threat but it seems the latest trends over the past few hours are for less in the way of major issues. Incredible how quickly thinking can change :lol:

I would think if were not predominately ZR by 6:00 AM at the latest we will avoid major issues in CT as far as ZR goes.

Were still probably going to have issues with roof collapses today though, especially up in MA where the heaviest snowfall totals will occur.

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In the same respect many may have no issue with the snowfall :lol: No way these grandiose 12"+ calls are verifying with such a small precip shield.

Mets on here did a great job with the forecast on this...many mentioned it would be extremely difficult to get those upper end totals with this kind of setup.

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Heavy band is here

Heavy ip/zr a few mangled flakes as well, its got to be snowing just inland now with these dynamics

This is basically what happened to me...I started as an IP/ZR mix but then transitioned over to all freezing rain. It's currently a moderate freezing rain here 25.9/25, looks cool outside but definitely a dangerous situation unfolding for the CT shoreline, NYC metro, N NJ, etc.

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Anyone concerned about the dry slot at ABE? lol

Its going to race in here so fast. We are dryslotted by noontime i think, perhaps sooner...especially SW near you. That could help snow accums and also limit the ice somewhat in CT. Duration is always a big factor in ice storms and this doesn't look like a long one.

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more ZR than before? any accretion?

as this very heavy band came in more ZR has mixed in, its probably 50/50 now ip/zr mix. Ice is building up quickly now, its getting ugly fast, have kept the fire going all night in case of outages, have to get some shut eye now, my 7 and 2 yr old will be waking me up shortly.

good luck to all

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Just woke up to check the obs etc.

18.5/18 SN looks like about 1" new here.

Looking at the radar over upstate NY I don't think I should go back to bed b/c it looks like it may be ripping here soon.

Same on wake up and snow. Coming down fiarly good, though the flakes aren't great attm as far as I can tell without having had any coffee.

Any quick synoposis from GFS onward to safe 35 pages of catch up reading?

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Its going to race in here so fast. We are dryslotted by noontime i think, perhaps sooner...especially SW near you. That could help snow accums and also limit the ice somewhat in CT. Duration is always a big factor in ice storms and this doesn't look like a long one.

Will, do you think the radar is going to fill in as the weak coastal low develops?

It seems as if the precipitation is racing through at this point, can't see how it continues down here into early afternoon as forecasted unless we get a serious redevelopment of banding?

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GFS gets kudos for the model to bring in precip the fastest...NAM choked on that aspect. Way too slow.

But as we thought from MEkster and I's SWFE cook book....the snow comes in sooner and so does the sleet. Precip always seems to race in sooner than models give it credit for during SWFEs.

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Will, do you think the radar is going to fill in as the weak coastal low develops?

It seems as if the precipitation is racing through at this point, can't see how it continues down here into early afternoon as forecasted unless we get a serious redevelopment of banding?

No, i dont think huge precip will redevelop...there will be some low level crap though. The mid-level forcing races north. Doesn;t mean precip shuts off, but the big stuff does. Mid-levels drive the big precip and that is long gone to the northeast pretty quickly.

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Same on wake up and snow. Coming down fiarly good, though the flakes aren't great attm as far as I can tell without having had any coffee.

Any quick synoposis from GFS onward to safe 35 pages of catch up reading?

Mike, looks to my untrained eye that mid-levels stay cold enough here for mostly snow.

Fast mover though.

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No, i dont think huge precip will redevelop...there will be some low level crap though. The mid-level forcing races north. Doesn;t mean precip shuts off, but the big stuff does. Mid-levels drive the big precip and that is long gone to the northeast pretty quickly.

Thanks! It appears there's some light ZR showers developing over PA but the steady/heavy precipitation is dying out...As is normal in a SWFE, the storm arrives and departs faster than expected. Seen this a million times in Vermont; it's almost the opposite of a Miller A coastal in which you become impatient as the snow crawls up the coast.

We may avoid any liquid if this is out of here by mid-morning. It's too bad there's one more line of heavy precipitation coming since it's all ice at this point, not a great sign for power lines and road conditions.

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