TheSnowman Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I went to the NWS Page to see if there was anything at the middle of the Blizzard Warning that was MORE important than the Blizzard Warning. And Sure enough, there is a Pink dot of a Civil Emergency Message, and also Civil Danger Warnings put up by Wisconsin. Wooooooooooooooow. My Gut feeling of a fetish for More than the Blizzard Warning was TRULY there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 40 minutes ago a guy reported snow/sleet mix near Kingston, NY...that's roughly west of Hartford. Here it is good snow and 11. 2 inches since midnight. I would really like to see what the difference is in the thermal profile between there and here...the 6z RUC sounding for HFD seemed plenty cold enough for snow to start here. Have to see what the 6z NAM sounding shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Nothing will ever rival the ice I saw from about exit 30 on I-87 through to a bit north of Montreal in January 1998. It seemed inches thick and evergreen trees with 75% of their branches pulled straight down and snapped so they loomed like stripped totem poles. I don't think most people realize how much 0.5" of ice actually is. They always over estimate it. There is a monster difference between a quarter inch and a half inch of ice. But to the naked eye a lot of people think a quarter inch of ice is a half inch...because a quarter inch of ice is a lot and looks very impressive on trees and such. In the absolute disaster ice storm here in Dec 2008, we had like 1.1-1.2 inches of ice and it honestly looked to me like 2-3 inches of ice just eyeballing it...bit thats because when its clung to everything it just looks obscene. It always looks more than it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I went to the NWS Page to see if there was anything at the middle of the Blizzard Warning that was MORE important than the Blizzard Warning. And Sure enough, there is a Pink dot of a Civil Emergency Message, and also Civil Danger Warnings put up by Wisconsin. Wooooooooooooooow. My Gut feeling of a fetish for More than the Blizzard Warning was TRULY there! Saw that earlier..O'Hare gusted to 61mph earlier in the evening. That being said I've never seen that, ever, on the East Coast...my gut feeling tells me the rarity of these types of systems out there has something to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'd much rather that...this sh** just creates more problems. The snowpack is still tremendous so the flooding would stink, too...so I guess there's no real way around it. We've got nowhere near 0.5"...but it's enough to create problems. Power has flickered twice here. Judging by reports from surrounding towns it seems like I'm lucky to have not lost it for at least a few minutes. The icing itself isn't really that bad. I think it's the fact that we saw sleet/ice/sleet earlier today..and now the sleet/freezing rain is just really making things worse. We lost part of a gutter earlier today from the combination of the snow with high water content and the new sleet/freezing rain. What a mess. How're you doing up there with the snow, bud? 0.2" of ice will begin to cause a few scattered problems and .25 will start to ramp up..once you get to 0.5" then it become a big deal. Hopefully you get to see 0.5" of ice but not experience power outage, because then you get the awesome view of that much ice without losing comfort of home life. For snow here, I had 0.7" new about 30-40 min ago, so probably an inch now. 7.0" earlier. So about 8.0" for the storm. Hoping for another 4" to crack 12" for the 4th time this winter. But we'll see. I could get another 7" or another 2.5"...just depends on if the heavy stuff can get over me while its still a snow sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I went to the NWS Page to see if there was anything at the middle of the Blizzard Warning that was MORE important than the Blizzard Warning. And Sure enough, there is a Pink dot of a Civil Emergency Message, and also Civil Danger Warnings put up by Wisconsin. Wooooooooooooooow. My Gut feeling of a fetish for More than the Blizzard Warning was TRULY there! WOW! http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Civil%20Danger%20Warning http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Civil%20Emergency%20Message Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yeah, I don't think I've ever seen a half inch of ice, that's a truly staggering amount. I wonder if we could get there tonight, however, unfortunate as it would be. I've seen pictures from the January 1998 ice storm in Upstate NY. Was that more than the December 2008 event, Will? Perhaps 2" ice in some areas, if I recall correctly? Jan '98 up there was quite a bit more than what I saw in 2008...that is the all time most ridiculous ice storm on record. Likely not matched any time soon...and probably not in our life times. It was most impressive in S Canada and parts of Maine where they saw 4" of ice...that is unheard of. I was maybe 1.25" of ice tops in 2008...but the average seemed to be around 1.1-1.2" of ice...which is staggering in itself....but just puts in perspective what the Jan '98 storm did up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yeah, I don't think I've ever seen a half inch of ice, that's a truly staggering amount. I wonder if we could get there tonight, however, unfortunate as it would be. I've seen pictures from the January 1998 ice storm in Upstate NY. Was that more than the December 2008 event, Will? Perhaps 2" ice in some areas, if I recall correctly? Try 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Jan '98 up there was quite a bit more than what I saw in 2008...that is the all time most ridiculous ice storm on record. Likely not matched any time soon...and probably not in our life times. It was most impressive in S Canada and parts of Maine where they saw 4" of ice...that is unheard of. I was maybe 1.25" of ice tops in 2008...but the average seemed to be around 1.1-1.2" of ice...which is staggering in itself....but just puts in perspective what the Jan '98 storm did up there. WOW. That was the blizz of '78 of ice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 0.2" of ice will begin to cause a few scattered problems and .25 will start to ramp up..once you get to 0.5" then it become a big deal. Hopefully you get to see 0.5" of ice but not experience power outage, because then you get the awesome view of that much ice without losing comfort of home life. For snow here, I had 0.7" new about 30-40 min ago, so probably an inch now. 7.0" earlier. So about 8.0" for the storm. Hoping for another 4" to crack 12" for the 4th time this winter. But we'll see. I could get another 7" or another 2.5"...just depends on if the heavy stuff can get over me while its still a snow sounding. I was hoping for that kind of deal, too...but I'm not sure I want to risk the outages and resulting problems. Everything looks pretty awesome right now..there's a relatively thick glaze on trees and cars as well as the sidewalk. They pretreated the roads pretty well but it's still noticeably icy. Not bad with the first event--that's the first time in a while I can remember a WAA precip event being separated by a good while from the main show. I think you should be okay with the second...but then again the sleet reports are pretty far north when compared to the SPC mesoscale analysis. The latest has the 925mb 0c line south of my house--and the 850 0c line basically along the CT coast to the NY/NJ Border. With the rate at which the precipitation is moving in..I would have to guess you'll be okay..but the 850mb temp advection is a bit concerning. I think you'll definitely crack 12", though...you're in a great spot for these types of events. Ray, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Really not much going on here despite 20 dbz echoes overhead. Little bit of snow grain/sleet crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 You can still see signs of the tree damage along that stretch of 87/15, though it is finally fading quite a bit. I went up to Tremblant skiing just after that event ...Tremblant had been all snow ...3 feet of powder on the ground. Jan '98 up there was quite a bit more than what I saw in 2008...that is the all time most ridiculous ice storm on record. Likely not matched any time soon...and probably not in our life times. It was most impressive in S Canada and parts of Maine where they saw 4" of ice...that is unheard of. I was maybe 1.25" of ice tops in 2008...but the average seemed to be around 1.1-1.2" of ice...which is staggering in itself....but just puts in perspective what the Jan '98 storm did up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 This is going to be one fast moving system...dry slot may reach here by 12:00-1:00 PM. This might be something too that could cut down on the major icing threat here...all really going to depend on when the majority of the ZR starts and begins to accrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Doing just about everything outside...SN/IP/ZR...minor glazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Doing just about everything outside...SN/IP/ZR...minor glazing. Good sign for here that flakes are mixing there. Absolute powder falling here right now...but its fairly light in intensity. Hoping for about 3-4 hours of 1-2" per hour stuff between about 10z and about 13 or 14z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'll enjoy posting while I can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Good sign for here that flakes are mixing there. Absolute powder falling here right now...but its fairly light in intensity. Hoping for about 3-4 hours of 1-2" per hour stuff between about 10z and about 13 or 14z. I'm wondering if I'm starting to get some help from better dynamics working into the area...it really looks like it wants to flip to mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 :o That would NOT be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'm wondering if I'm starting to get some help from better dynamics working into the area...it really looks like it wants to flip to mostly snow. You might flip briefly to all or mostly snow as the better lift moves in over the next 2-3 hours but then quickly go back to pellets and eventually ZR. I think the bigger ZR threat though is for SW third of CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 You might flip briefly to all or mostly snow as the better lift moves in over the next 2-3 hours but then quickly go back to pellets and eventually ZR. I think the bigger ZR threat though is for SW third of CT The extent of the icing threat here is going to heavily depend on when we flip to ZR...looking at the 6z NAM I may not have a long duration of ZR but perhaps just enough to cause minor issues. Meanwhile that OKX map is kind of scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The qpf is falling apart though with this system... This round #2 was at around 1.3" on the models a day ago, cut back to .9" at 0Z and now .7" here through 12 hrs (essentially the event) on the new 6Z NAM. Good sign for here that flakes are mixing there. Absolute powder falling here right now...but its fairly light in intensity. Hoping for about 3-4 hours of 1-2" per hour stuff between about 10z and about 13 or 14z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Judging by that map I wonder if most of southern CT is upgraded to an Ice storm warning...I think threshold is at least 0.50'' of ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 The qpf is falling apart though with this system... This round #2 was at around 1.3" on the models a day ago, cut back to .9" at 0Z and now .7" here through 12 hrs (essentially the event) on the new 6Z NAM. Not surprising...some of us were discussing how >12" with just the 2nd part might be tough to come by. The synoptic setup didn't really support it. Its still possible someone gets bombed in a 6h period, but its still a SWFE with a dyslot racing NE. So we thought the 20-30" amounts were kind of ridiculous. This doesn;t count some upslope areas in the Greens where after the main synoptic stuff passes, they could get mesoscale fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 ip 23 intense band over nyc up to 46 dbz, cant wait till that get s here, wonder if we get some mangled flakes with that, its been all frozen here. ip/crystals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 There must be some serious dry air around because it's really not doing anything here. Paul, is it coming down at a good clip over there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 H2O...didn;t see your question earlier, but it looks like Waterbury area to you could see some decent snow if the Euro verified for the Saturday/Saturday night event. But its marginal. We'll probably know a lot more about that system in the next 24-36 hours. It looks unfavorable for the coast, but inland could get decent snow. We'll hope and just wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 There must be some serious dry air around because it's really not doing anything here. Paul, is it coming down at a good clip over there? It wasn't ripping here but coming down at a decent clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I've officially hit 9" for the event, which gives me 72" on the season and only an inch behind 2007-08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 H2O...didn;t see your question earlier, but it looks like Waterbury area to you could see some decent snow if the Euro verified for the Saturday/Saturday night event. But its marginal. We'll probably know a lot more about that system in the next 24-36 hours. It looks unfavorable for the coast, but inland could get decent snow. We'll hope and just wait and see. Thanks Will, no problem. Take 'em one at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 I've officially hit 9" for the event, which gives me 72" on the season and only an inch behind 2007-08. Mostly snow with some pingers mixed in in Union CT as they get out on the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.