ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 NW CONN/ chris would like to be linked to the mesonet temp page... i would link him but I'm on the droid.. he asked a bit back but got lost in the shuffle For some reason its missing some sites the last hour or so...but usually they come back http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/mesomap.htm Do not hyper link this site into an image...if you want to post the current temps as an image, upload it first, then post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 ip/zr/ice crystals hope to hang on to this as long as possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 EURO would probably give me about 4" of snow from RD II.....hopefully I hit the low end of my 6-10", at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Thanks for the help guys. Bed time for me.. can't wait to end up in upslope foothill enhanced snow that is always magically heavier than the areas around me and cash in with those wonderful extra inches of powder bridgton always pulls off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 ip/zr/ice crystals hope to hang on to this as long as possible Thankfully this storm is hauling azz so the ice should at least be somewhat limited there. It could get pretty bad for awhile, but duration should limit it from being a disaster. Still, there will probably be some power outages down there if most of that slug of precip later is ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It's imortant to remember that you don't have to necessarily ENTIRELY buy any one model....sometimes each one may be correct in certain aspects and you have to integrate what you believe to each of their attributes into a good forecast. EURO is warmer and get's H85 to my fanny. Sure, the inherent biases in each model lead us to seek a compromise in attempt to score a perfect forecast. But, obviously the whole point of any model is to produce an exactly correct solution, not something close. So I think it's still fair to compare which model verifed closest. Sheesh... repeating a post-mortem on 1/26/11 with ~50 people reading this thread... perhaps the most accurate model for tomorrow morning's weather lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Sure, the inherent biases in each model lead us to seek a compromise in attempt to score a perfect forecast. But, obviously the whole point of any model is to produce an exactly correct solution, not something close. So I think it's still fair to compare which model verifed closest. Sheesh... repeating a post-mortem on 1/26/11 with ~50 people reading this thread... perhaps the most accurate model for tomorrow morning's weather lol I think that the EURO did best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 EURO would probably give me about 4" of snow from RD II.....hopefully I hit the low end of my 6-10", at least. The stuff is rushing in so you very well may. It's probably not until 15Z or or so where it gets ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Euro looks pretty good for the weekend threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Thankfully this storm is hauling azz so the ice should at least be somewhat limited there. It could get pretty bad for awhile, but duration should limit it from being a disaster. Still, there will probably be some power outages down there if most of that slug of precip later is ZR. Thanks Will, moderate sleet now, and sleet all the way back into northern Jersey, every min it pings is a good thing. Trees already showing fatigue from the non stop ZRdrizzle, down to 22/19. Brought the wood inside, fire going, snow off roof, and away from foundation this 20"+ snowpack will be glacial. nw winds tom scare the living hell out of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 EURO coming in a bit more amped and slower for Sat night....near MTP as opposed to ACK....looks like a congrats Logan11 run. Not a bad run for many, but jackpot is wagons west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Nice little mini interior snow bomb on the Euro for Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The stuff is rushing in so you very well may. It's probably not until 15Z or or so where it gets ugly. Yea, I want this done, yesterday.....odd saying that, but the mid levels have the stop watch out. At least I won't torch with marine crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Latest RUC looks about the same... transition at pike around 15Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 EURO coming in a bit more amped and slower for Sat night....near MTP as opposed to ACK....looks like a congrats Logan11 run. Not a bad run for many, but jackpot is wagons west. You would flip to snow. Probably an ORH county event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Nice little mini interior snow bomb on the Euro for Saturday night. I think I'd see a net gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 You would flip to snow. Probably an ORH county event. Dec '96 part 1 type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 You would flip to snow. Probably an ORH county event. You mean flip to rain....or no.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yea, I want this done, yesterday.....odd saying that, but the mid levels have the stop watch out. At least I won't torch with marine crap. No way, the cold is locked and loaded. I may briefly go to 33 or 34, but it's inconsequential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Dec '96 part 1 type event. I did great in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 You mean flip to rain....or no.... I mean at the end. SN-RA-SN type deal perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 You mean flip to rain....or no.... It looks better for you int he 2nd half of that storm than the first half...where the BL is out of the east. Regardless doesn't matter about details at 100 hours out, but thats probably what he means...like a snow to very quick flip to rain back to snow in the latter stages with several inches...hence my "Dec '96 part 1" reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Dec '96 part 1 type event. Get that VM a little south, and now we're talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 wow, major ping fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It looks better for you int he 2nd half of that storm than the first half...where the BL is out of the east. Regardless doesn't matter about details at 100 hours out, but thats probably what he means...like a snow to very quick flip to rain back to snow in the latter stages with several inches...hence my "Dec '96 part 1" reference. I was all mashed potatoes in Dec '96 pt one, I think...got like 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 I was all mashed potatoes in Dec '96 pt one, I think...got like 8". Well it def started as rain there. It started as rain here even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 In case you haven't checked in a little bit: Wow. http://www.cubworld.com/category/a_cubworld_cam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 BGM has flipped form ZR to UP (unknown precip) to now snow with 1 mile vis....so there's some dynamic cooling going on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Well it def started as rain there. It started as rain here even. Ok.....I'll defer....my bad. I remember it as being a good event with ~8", though...what did you get... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 BGM has flipped form ZR to UP (unknown precip) to now snow with 1 mile vis....so there's some dynamic cooling going on there. Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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