danstorm Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 NE winter storms will always be my favorite.. the epic lure of a gigantic coastal .. the cf.. the deform.. the winds.. the tssn.. Me too... but their storms rival ours in terms of ferocity, easily. But I would agree... generally Midwest storms lack some of the character of our NE bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 6.5" on the day Snow Depth = 32" light light SN attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The NAM has nailed trends also.. euro has caved alot to the other models.. and been late to catch trends which is kind of surprising. Yeah Jan 26 was a big NAM coup with the sheared 2 lobe idea, EURO caved 24 hours before showtime I believe... Let's hope the EURO joining the GFS / GGEM will hold for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Me too... but their storms rival ours in terms of ferocity, easily. But I would agree... generally Midwest storms lack some of the character of our NE bombs. They have some insane wind in their storms when they blow up out there. As I mentioned before though, >12" storms in places like Chicago and Detroit are much rarer than in Boston...most obvious reason is the Atlantic ocean for extra moisture. But like I also said before...when they actually do get those bombs that give them >12"...they make the most of it. It goes nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 EURO had the best idea, last week...despite blinking at the last moment. I agree. The fact it blinked was the reason why I cant reall reward it completely. The MNM(matt noyes model) nailed it best (lol). Empowered by no supercomputers but forecasting and weenie pride. Wasnt there a less mentioned foreigner that was close to verifying well? (My horrible memory does not serve me well here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Me too... but their storms rival ours in terms of ferocity, easily. But I would agree... generally Midwest storms lack some of the character of our NE bombs. character and lure.. two important aspects of our weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yeah Jan 26 was a big NAM coup with the sheared 2 lobe idea, EURO caved 24 hours before showtime I believe... Let's hope the EURO joining the GFS / GGEM will hold for Saturday Yes, but you can't forget that it tried to whiff alot of us and I ended up with 12.5".....which better fit the EURO's depiction prior to it's 11th hour "cave" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 EURO had the best idea, last week...despite blinking at the last moment. EURO did nail the prolific qpfs, but NAM did lead the pack with the more accurate synoptics of 2 separate pieces of energy... otherwise we would have had our 3rd blizzard in 4 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yes, but you can't forget that it tried to whiff alot of us and I ended up with 12.5".....which better fit the EURO's depiction prior to it's 11th hour "cave" lol Yeah there's various ways to "verify" a model forecast...IMBY is probably the worst way to do it and weenies love to do it that way....but in the end the Euro was showing the system quite a bit more amplified than the NAM and proved more correct. It obviously did not verify perfectly (rarely a model does)...but it was closer to reality than the sheared out NAM runs even if the NAM scored a coup on the "two part" idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 EURO did nail the prolific qpfs, but NAM did lead the pack with the more accurate synoptics of 2 separate pieces of energy... otherwise we would have had our 3rd blizzard in 4 weeks That system had the heaviest snow I've ever seen in my life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I agree. The fact it blinked was the reason why I cant reall reward it completely. The MNM(matt noyes model) nailed it best (lol). Empowered by no supercomputers but forecasting and weenie pride. Wasnt there a less mentioned foreigner that was close to verifying well? (My horrible memory does not serve me well here) I was holding at 8-16" in the face of overwhelming data until the EURO caved at the last moment, but in retrsopect, I should have stood pat since the track of the mid levels was ideal. Models' distribution of QPF does not always correspond to the track of the mid levels correctly, so it's imortant to remember that and not just vacuously stare at the QPF charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yes, but you can't forget that it tried to whiff alot of us and I ended up with 12.5".....which better fit the EURO's depiction prior to it's 11th hour "cave" lol Agree... and let's not forget that the NAM was spitting out wildly different solution seemingly every 6 hours before it landed on the 2 energy solution. EURO was definitely more consistent. Speaking of which, someone should do a quick read of the EURO in a few mins, both for this morning and Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 I was holding at 8-16" in the face of overwhelming data until the EURO caved at the last moment, but in retrsopect, I should have standed pat since the track of the mid levels was ideal. Models' distribution of QPF does not always correspond to the track of the mid levels correctly, so it's imortant to remember that and not just vacuously stare at the QPF charts. We could probably say this every day for the next year and it won't change most people's thinking. Its too easy to get married to model qpf. We all fall for it, but hopefully a majority of the time we can look past it...that's not to say ignore it of course...but augment its output with the synoptics and experience with local climo. That's why some people cry about qpf even when mid-level tracks look super for them and we try to tell them...but it doesn't always work. The power of the pretty qpf colors is pretty strong, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I was holding at 8-16" in the face of overwhelming data until the EURO caved at the last moment, but in retrsopect, I should have stood pat since the track of the mid levels was ideal. Models' distribution of QPF does not always correspond to the track of the mid levels correctly, so it's imortant to remember that and not just vacuously stare at the QPF charts. I remember the mid levels being pretty much perfect. A reason why my snowmaps were robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Anyone else see the area of low pressure that the GFS has at hour 204 south of Greenland. lol. 932 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Euro total qpf for most of NE 0.75-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Euro total qpf for most of NE 0.75-1" The euro's already out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I have 23.5 f with very light freezing rain starting temp hasnt moved all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Euro is much faster with its precip shield than last run. Still quite cold at 12z...implying a lot of N CT should be going to pellets once lift moves in (maybe some snow for extreme N CT right before that). Its out of here by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Agree... and let's not forget that the NAM was spitting out wildly different solution seemingly every 6 hours before it landed on the 2 energy solution. EURO was definitely more consistent. Speaking of which, someone should do a quick read of the EURO in a few mins, both for this morning and Saturday... It's imortant to remember that you don't have to necessarily ENTIRELY buy any one model....sometimes each one may be correct in certain aspects and you have to integrate what you believe to each of their attributes into a good forecast. EURO is warmer and get's H85 to my fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Euro is much faster with its precip shield than last run. Still quite cold at 12z...implying a lot of N CT should be going to pellets once lift moves in (maybe some snow for extreme N CT right before that). Its out of here by 18z. thinkin really nothing in the way of major ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Looks like 850mb 0C line reaches the pike by 18hrs per Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyMaN600 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 OT, but Chicago just got the royal flush: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 thinkin really nothing in the way of major ZR? No, there will be ZR, it just might go to pellets for a bit, esp for N CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The euro's already out? I meant for this storm, not the weekend event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 s No, there will be ZR, it just might go to pellets for a bit, esp for N CT. sorry, my ice fetish causes me to be annoying from time to time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 and again idk if anyone saw last time but what's that site with the mesonet map color coded to temp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 NW CONN/ chris would like to be linked to the mesonet temp page... i would link him but I'm on the droid.. he asked a bit back but got lost in the shuffle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 OT, but Chicago just got the royal flush: Wow. That might be the craziest winter observation I've ever seen. Hail, really? Could there possibly be that strong convection in TSSN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 NW CONN/ chris would like to be linked to the mesonet temp page... i would link him but I'm on the droid.. he asked a bit back but got lost in the shuffle http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/mesomap.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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