DomNH Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The storm will have finished by the time the MM5 run finishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 GFS is a wee bit colder than the NAM through 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Maybe snowgrains. If Im not mistaken, snow grains or graupel are tiny white 'balls' that are softer and whiter than sleet.. This stuff Im having is more sleety.. If they were bigger, theyd be bouncing.. but theyre tiny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Well looks like I'm staying up for the GFS...even though I need to wake up at 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Still hasnt stopped snowing here in the foothills btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 GFS is a wee bit colder than the NAM through 12z. But warmer than its 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Wilfork decides to give up ground to the NH border through 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Class tomorrow cancelled already at Salem State Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Jucier than NAM, thru 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 about when does the coastal start to develop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 But warmer than its 18z run yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Which is curious as even 1000-700mb thicknesses on the NAM should have been plenty cold for snow by 10pm in that area. thicknesses have nothing to do with it.. you can get certain types of precip at or above the so called critical thickness values.. it all comes down to precip rate and physical processes that cause the temperature to drop or rise and the temperature throughout the entire column. if you look at the sounding there are plenty of layers around freezing.. all you need is one shallow layer just above freezing and boom no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Warmer than the NAM at 18z but a wee willy colder than the 18z at the same time. Bottom line, most of the precip N of Rt. 2 is done by the time we warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 like i said last night..mid levels always warm quicker than we think.. so whatever time you think.. 2 to 3 hours before that is when you mix.. round 1 is (was) your snowstorm.. round 2 never had a chance to be much for most in SNE.. most in this thread will see sleet and freezing rain... i think an ice storm warning should be issued for all of inland ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vttaconics Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I think they have the jackpot too far south imo... we have seen some guidance bringing sleet to even the nh border at times... if that happens the jackpot will be more centered across the NH lakes region and west into VT and east into ME. Idk, and I think someone sees more than 16" in favorable areas but thats just me. Our local fox station.... Fox 44.... just went with 1 to 2 feet along the spine of the greens. 10-18 widespread elsewhere in VT and NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Still hasnt stopped snowing here in the foothills btw Still a few flakes here and there IMBY... 16.3F Oh, if I was only another 10 miles north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 like i said last night..mid levels always warm quicker than we think.. so whatever time you think.. 2 to 3 hours before that is when you mix.. round 1 is (was) your snowstorm.. round 2 never had a chance to be much for most in SNE.. most in this thread will see sleet and freezing rain... i think an ice storm warning should be issued for all of inland ct How much ice are you thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 GFS is just over the freezing mark at 18z here...+0.3C at 800mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The GFS is real close as well here but I think we are going to see some serious issues in CT tomorrow...alright off to bed...4 hours of sleep should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Still a few flakes here and there IMBY... 16.3F Oh, if I was only another 10 miles north... You're fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Snow picking up in intensity here, some graupel or sleet mixed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Am aware the NAM sucks tonight... This system currently has a spectacular amount of surface area receiving freezing p-types. Radar continues to fill in very rapidly. Freezing rain and IP wll be breaking out shortly if not already near the Mass Pike and points S, with snow moderate at times N. The snow transition to ZR may collapse S into central CT/RI for a time during the overnight - unsure how far - but will return N to between Rt 2 and the Pike during the late morning hours, then fall back S during the afternoon. IP should mix in to the NH border, with a thin west-east oriented zone of pounding IP along the transition zone, including Boston. Snow totals should be cut some given this but the total impact would remain the same as lower 50mb of the ATM demonstrates only modest idea this warm assault is taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Ok.... NOW its bouncing!! Tip nailed it... freezing rain and ice pellets mixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 But warmer than its 18z run GFS absolutely identical for temp profiles imby for 18z and 0z fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 How much ice are you thinking? too much.. 1/3" to 2/3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 You're fine. s-s-s-scared of... pingers! No, I know I'll get 6-10" with some sleet mixed in... but I could use a little more latitude. Will you break the record Saturday? I haven't measured OTG in a while, but now probably 24-27"... Nothing unreal, but better than the last couple. Kev's snowpiles will be encased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 like i said last night..mid levels always warm quicker than we think.. so whatever time you think.. 2 to 3 hours before that is when you mix.. round 1 is (was) your snowstorm.. round 2 never had a chance to be much for most in SNE.. most in this thread will see sleet and freezing rain... i think an ice storm warning should be issued for all of inland ct Soundings off the 00z NAM are pretty awful anywhere south of ORH. BDL, HFD, IJD, PVD are all pretty much above freezing in at least one level for the entire event. It becomes marginal as dynamics kick in around 7AM, but it's entirely plausible places like IJD, HFD, PVD go directly over to ice. It's warm, even ORH nears the freezing mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 SUNY is creeping along...out to 12z....0c at 850 is a bit S of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 This puppy stretches from Nebraska up my fanny, with a weenie tickling Tampa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 wow NAM extractions show ORH 90% sleet and freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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