dryslot Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 You're not getting anything more than 10:1...jesus. Can we 5\day the next dude to mention ratios lol The new buzzword Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'm not going to alter my thoughts based on every waffle....I'll live or die on climo when it's a matter of a few miles like this. This is going to be Jan 8th of last year all over again here. We rip heavy snow as the high vv's are over us and once they shut off we go to crap. Luckily, this time there is hardly any QPF once they shut off. There's no doubt it's going to be close, and if someone accelerates on Rt. 2 the sleet line may go a half mile north, but I think I'm clean for 90% of tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I don't know...you usually don't get good ratios like with WAA snows. it can still snow very hard with 10:1 ratios. Yeah...the NAM drops 0.60" in 3hrs up here so it will probably snow 2"/hr even with the 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 how can it be 10:1 when its 17 degrees? Even Matt Noyes says 12-15 :1 You need it to be cold in the snow growth region which is in the mid levels. I'm not sure why Noyes is thinking those ratios...why does he think the mid levels will be cold enough? I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The new buzzword Eh...they're important when forecasting amounts, but a lot of non-mets on here don't understand what goes into them. I'd be rich if I was paid every time I read "well it's 15F right now, how can we not get good ratios?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 We'll see what Harvey says. His map on wcvb is fairly broad. But I think he's leaning to a colder soultion. We'll see. Let the snow wars begin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 This is going to be Jan 8th of last year all over again here. We rip heavy snow as the high vv's are over us and once they shut off we go to crap. Luckily, this time there is hardly any QPF once they shut off. There's no doubt it's going to be close, and if someone accelerates on Rt. 2 the sleet line may go a half mile north, but I think I'm clean for 90% of tomorrow. I mean, maybe I'll be wrong.....we'll see. I'm not trying to sound like a met messiah, but I'm gonna stay consistent.....I wish that I didn't blink at the last minute on that last event because my 8-16" ended up perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I haven't followed the HRRR at all, the 0z RUN...here's the details...0c 850 runs north quickly 12-14z. There's no 1000-700 charts but you can see from the snow output it's not thinking much. (northern areas are getting smoked...I'm speaking of down this way). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Nobody in CT is getting 15:1 ratios..or even 12:1. WTF is going on this year with weenies and ratios?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Eh...they're important when forecasting amounts, but a lot of non-mets on here don't understand what goes into them. I'd be rich if I was paid every time I read "well it's 15F right now, how can we not get good ratios?" Thats because most only think about 2m temps and not whats going on upstairs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 incoming movin thru PA fast.... http://www.intellicast.com/National/Nexrad/BaseReflectivity.aspx?location=USNY0850 appendage moving into W SNE now. bring it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Nobody in CT is getting 15:1 ratios..or even 12:1. WTF is going on this year with weenies and ratios?? Not many in CT may even start as snow and if we do it won't last too long...I think us here in the northern part of the state will be lucky to get more than 3'' before the changeover occurs...unless we can really rip then perhaps as much as 4''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Nobody in CT is getting 15:1 ratios..or even 12:1. WTF is going on this year with weenies and ratios?? Nobody in CT is getting more than 3:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Ratios are very important when forecasting amounts its part of the science Yes, just like periods are parts of sentences; as are commas, apostrophes and other general grammar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I haven't followed the HRRR at all, the 0z RUN...here's the details...0c 850 runs north quickly 12-14z. There's no 1000-700 charts but you can see from the snow output it's not thinking much. (northern areas are getting smoked...I'm speaking of down this way). Didn't that model fail last time in it's forecast. Like the last storm. It predicted warmer for places like Boston and it stayed cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I mean, maybe I'll be wrong.....we'll see. I'm not trying to sound like a met messiah, but I'm gonna stay consistent.....I wish that I didn't blink at the last minute on that last event because my 8-16" ended up perfect. Lol, well if there is one thing we know well it is SWFEs. I haven't followed the HRRR at all, the 0z RUN...here's the details...0c 850 runs north quickly 12-14z. There's no 1000-700 charts but you can see from the snow output it's not thinking much. (northern areas are getting smoked...I'm speaking of down this way). The HRRR was brutally bad with the snow output on Thursday. I know you don't focus on the amounts so much as placement, but it was awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Thats because most only think about 2m temps and not whats going on upstairs... I blame this awful table.http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/tables/snowfall-meltwater.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Nobody in CT is getting 15:1 ratios..or even 12:1. WTF is going on this year with weenies and ratios?? ....without it all the .75" W.E 20" snow reports would look odd? Scott what do you make of the RUC? I was hoping for maybe an inch here but it's blasting the warmth so fast there's zero chance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 You're not getting better ratios than me. Oh no you di-int. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Twc hitting this storm hard. Mentioned northern mass will get 12+. They have me for 6-10 tommorow wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I haven't followed the HRRR at all, the 0z RUN...here's the details...0c 850 runs north quickly 12-14z. There's no 1000-700 charts but you can see from the snow output it's not thinking much. (northern areas are getting smoked...I'm speaking of down this way). question i have is .....where is the 0c line for 8H warm nose...and also will dynamics be able to overcome the 1c 8-850 crap further east....closer to the source of cold air draining down. i.e like a haverhill snow bomb while SWof ftichburg sleets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Nobody in CT is getting more than 3:1 ^5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Didn't that model fail last time in it's forecast. Like the last storm. It predicted warmer for places like Boston and it stayed cold. Don't know..didn't look at it all until just then thought I'd post it for comparison later..... Lol, well if there is one thing we know well it is SWFEs. The HRRR was brutally bad with the snow output on Thursday. I know you don't focus on the amounts so much as placement, but it was awful. It was/wasn't...blew the amounts on the northern edge but did "ok" with the countours. It did peg Ginx and RI in the 20" area though.... you are right htough I was more speaking to the fact that it thinks we get squat down this way so it's warm aloft compared to say the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 So what's the deal, am I lights out tomorrow or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 ....without it all the .75" W.E 20" snow reports would look odd? What does the Cape know about ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 What does the Cape know about ratios? Do you know when the SUNY MM5 comes out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Not going to be sticking around for the GFS tonight...3:00 AM wake up call...busy day upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 LOL reading the central thread and the sleet folk are posting about the blowing and drifting sleet that they've seen 4-6" sleet and some dude posted an 18" drift of SLEET, YUCK! Did see one of them say that the east coasters don't know what a blizzard is really about Guess they need to be on the cape or ack when they're gusting past hurricane force - not this measly 50 kt gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'll tell ya all what. Instead of being nervous, I'll just make it snow 10-20" on everybody and all will be good. How's that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1985 Polar Bear Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I posted the updated map in the NNE thread, My area here is 12.0".. Right. The various GYX zone forecast text mentions of "12-18" refer to two-day totals. The graphical maps separate the events, w/Wednesday topping out at around a foot. Splitting hairs perhaps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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