ericnh Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 what make me nervous is the wall of Water is not very wide. If the tail over Chicago can go over us we will be ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1985 Polar Bear Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 That's the old AFD. New one states new map shows Wed storm total. Don't think so. There's no mention of 12-18 in the 7:05 update: ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE ONSET EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 9 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 How good is the SREF for surface temperatures...I haven't really used it that much? I'm going to turn to plain rain according to the 21z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 00z NAM not quite Noyes-ian but a good dump nonetheless. Noyes says his totals will be achieved thru 15:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 10:1 for 95% of the QPF how can it be 10:1 when its 17 degrees? Even Matt Noyes says 12-15 :1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 You come close to dancing with the devil in the pale moon light though. N. of Rt. 2 should be fine until the dynamics shut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 They're talking 2-event total. Note this disclaimer from GYX: EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE TREATED TODAY/S SNOWFALL EVENT AND WEDNESDAY/S AS SEPARATE EVENTS FROM AN ADVISORY/WARNING STANDPOINT...OUR SNOW TOTAL GRAPHIC ON OUR WEB PAGE REFLECTS THE COMBINED TOTAL FOR BOTH DAYS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. This is my zone: TONIGHT...CLOUDY...SNOW WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONOF 1 TO 3 INCHES LATE. LOWS AROUND 12. LIGHT AND VARIABLEWINDS... BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCEOF SNOW 90 PERCENT..WEDNESDAY...SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL SNOWACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 12 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 17. NORTHEAST WINDS10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR100 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS ZERO..WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN ACHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF12 TO 18 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLEWINDS. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. In the AFD they say combined totals in the snow map graphic, dont' mention the zones. The zone seems to say 9-15 with some snow likely in the evening and 12-18 total. It is confusing. If I am the public reading that zone I think I am getting 12-18 inches of snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Funny if you click on Northeastern Methuen near the New Hampshire line, it says 5-9. Then go a few miles west click on Salem, NH, says 8-12. Battle of the WFO's LOL -- most of the time I hate being in the GYX CWA - when I can drive 2 miles and be in Taunton's, but this time, it makes me fell good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 i think its going to be rapid!! a ton of ice for us and snow changes to sleet in alot of other places If we can get closer to 0.20 to 0.25'' of ice accretion we shouldn't have many major issues...we'll see power outages and some downed limbs but nothing too serious...but if we get closer to 0.40'' to 0.50'' than it will be a different story...not sure if we see as much as 0.40'' to 0.50'' but I think SW CT def will...I could see near 0.60 to 0.70'' in parts of that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 how can it be 10:1 when its 17 degrees? Even Matt Noyes says 12-15 :1 it's tough for good ratios when mid-levels are warm where the snow is actually being created. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 how can it be 10:1 when its 17 degrees? Even Matt Noyes says 12-15 :1 It's all about the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 yes more in line with gfs now. if we get 1" QPF snow ratios up here should be 13-15 to 1 so we could get 10-15 close to Matts prediction. lets see what the gfs says in an hour and 15 You're not getting anything more than 10:1...jesus. Can we 5\day the next dude to mention ratios lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 10:1 for 95% of the QPF 12:1 or 15:1 for my area...700mb get to -8C... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Looking at the NAM, I'm not sure where BOX is saying 5-9" for additoinal. I guess there's sleet in there somewhere, but I'm not sure where/how much. BOX's revised snowfall map still gives us 9-10" tomorrow. Add that to today's take and it's still a net gain of 17-18" for the 2 days. Throw on another 4-8" this weekend and we're at about 24" for February before the first week is out. Ok, now I really am going to crash. Time to just let what happens happen. 71" from Jan1st to Feb 1st. Enjoy the snow everybody. Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 How good is the SREF for surface temperatures...I haven't really used it that much? I'm going to turn to plain rain according to the 21z SREF I would think anyone with the exception of the extreme coast goes above 32F...NE flow at the sfc with the high pressure to our north and snow pack...just find it difficult that many spots get that high. I'm thinking 28-29F for HFD...max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 it's tough for good ratios when mid-levels are warm where the snow is actually being created. ok good point did not think of that then why is matt Noyes from NECN thinking 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 my car windows are already covered in ice thats enough for me If we can get closer to 0.20 to 0.25'' of ice accretion we shouldn't have many major issues...we'll see power outages and some downed limbs but nothing too serious...but if we get closer to 0.40'' to 0.50'' than it will be a different story...not sure if we see as much as 0.40'' to 0.50'' but I think SW CT def will...I could see near 0.60 to 0.70'' in parts of that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 700mb temps are warm for a lot of us. Even far NNE. BTV and BML get up to -6C/-7C at H7 too. I'm not liking the ratio potential until we get into hang back precip. Yes that is why I find the forecasts aggressive even from GYX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 thing of beauty... unmitigated blizzard for NW Illinois someone had a great quote after our Jan 2005 blizzard, don't remember who: "it's not strong low pressures that make great snowstorms, it's strong high pressures"... i think that would apply here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yeah, it's going to rip like gangbusters from like 9z to 18z and after that there may be some crap. 10'' here we come. I'm not going to alter my thoughts based on every waffle....I'll live or die on climo when it's a matter of a few miles like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 You're not getting anything more than 10:1...jesus. Can we 5\day the next dude to mention ratios lol Ray, what do you think ratios will be out this way? Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Don't think so. There's no mention of 12-18 in the 7:05 update: ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE ONSET EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 9 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. I posted the updated map in the NNE thread, My area here is 12.0".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 You're not getting anything more than 10:1...jesus. Can we 5\day the next dude to mention ratios lol Ratios are very important when forecasting amounts its part of the science Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Don't think so. There's no mention of 12-18 in the 7:05 update: ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE ONSET EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 9 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. I'm talking about the new snowfall map. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7PM. HAVE UPDATED THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN THE NDFD TO NOT INCLUDE THE SNOW THAT FELL TODAY. THE LAST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SFC LOW IS NOW EXITING THE FCST AREA. SOME OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SW NH AROUND 3 OR 4AM AND SPREAD NORTHEAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 my car windows are already covered in ice thats enough for me wow...so already glazing there. I don't think that's occurred here but I haven't been outside since 5:30 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 ok good point did not think of that then why is matt Noyes from NECN thinking 15:1 I don't know...you usually don't get good ratios like with WAA snows. it can still snow very hard with 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Don't think so. There's no mention of 12-18 in the 7:05 update: ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE ONSET EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 9 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. Exactly! That is why it is confusing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Ratios are very important when forecasting amounts its part of the science Woosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 it's tough for good ratios when mid-levels are warm where the snow is actually being created. OSU to answer the SREF question..I'm not a big fan but I distinctly remember SREF temps being tossed around in a few of the events when I had warnings and got a lot less. IE it was too cold. The NAM has the 35 line into EMA and I'd think near/above freezing temps not terribly far from you. You're not getting anything more than 10:1...jesus. Can we 5\day the next dude to mention ratios lol LOL, ratios are so 2010. A couple of years ago people worried about flake structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 12:1 or 15:1 for my area...700mb get to -8C... You're not getting better ratios than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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