NECT Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I still think it's a real difficult call, although we may be haded in the direction of some pretty bad icing...perhaps in the 0.30 to 0.40'' range...right now it seems like a lock that at least interior SW CT (where the Ice storm warnings are) and across central CT just south of HFD stand a decent chance...however, this threat could certainly include Hartford and even some locations further north...going to be a nowcast thing perhaps. I never thought I'd hope for sleet. Sorry Rev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yes. That's what I figured. I wonder if Wilmington was any different in Feb '69. Probably not much at all. If anything, maybe a bit less than Reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Welcome aboard. LOL, slowly but surely they're all coming around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 starting as light freezing rain in Erie, PA. For reference, they were predicted 3-5" of snow changing to sleet after midnight and then zr after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 LOL, slowly but surely they're all coming around. What (to date) has been your most epic winter here in NE? You pick the criteria... Sadly no skiing tonight. Too much schoolwork... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 For reference, they were predicted 3-5" of snow changing to sleet after midnight and then zr after that. Yeah I saw that, mid-levels are warmer over there than modeled and forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Ok....question for you NNE peeps....this isn't an issue I have ever dealt with before, but am about to.....what do you do when snow depth begins to impinge on the radiation shield of your Davis.....is there a need to clear it away or no.... My depth is about 31"....9" short of history. Like I told you yesterday, Saturday is your history making day, you bang 8 tomorrow, compaction you go into Sat only needing 4, doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yeah I saw that, mid-levels are warmer over there than modeled and forecast. The depth of the colder air is better here, but we'll have to watch the warm layer at 800mb. That always screws with people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 ^^^ = bigger ice storm here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Even the oven, BDR at 24/20, with a stiff ne wind basically in the sound. southern ct is going to have one hell of an ice storm later tonight into tom morning, climo has been thrown to the wolves this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I never thought I'd hope for sleet. Sorry Rev. I am praying, much closer to ice than you and starting to worry. Still snow on pines here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The depth of the colder air is better here, but we'll have to watch the warm layer at 800mb. That always screws with people. right...from what I've read...if the snow completely melts into water in the warm layer...it's extremely difficult to refreeze in the cold layer even given a substantial depth. When it partially melts because the warm layer is marginal...it's much easier to freeze into sleet even in a shallow cold layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yeah I saw that, mid-levels are warmer over there than modeled and forecast. Yup, really expecting the same across SNE tomorrow. No way 850 line gets so far north without a huge wedge of warm air through a wide layer. Plus models now even has the surface warming quite a bit tomorrow, likely going above freezing up to PVD, with every layer above that up to 700mb above freezing. That's a lot of warm air. With an inch QPF, "maybe" 0.20-0.30" being snow, that's going to have to be a lot of precip as sleet for there not to be icing problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yup, really expecting the same across SNE tomorrow. No way 850 line gets so far north without a huge wedge of warm air through a wide layer. Plus models now even has the surface warming quite a bit tomorrow, likely going above freezing up to PVD, with every layer above that up to 700mb above freezing. That's a lot of warm air. With an inch QPF, "maybe" 0.20-0.30" being snow, that's going to have to be a lot of precip as sleet for there not to be icing problems. Isnt it like 3am in London? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 right...from what I've read...if the snow completely melts into water in the warm layer...it's extremely difficult to refreeze in the cold layer even given a substantial depth. When it partially melts because the warm layer is marginal...it's much easier to freeze into sleet even in a shallow cold layer. Right. That's what is noticeable. It looks pretty warm in a number of layers as the morning progressing, basically 700mb and below. And not even really marginal (close to 0c), like 1-4C depending on the layer pushing inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 What (to date) has been your most epic winter here in NE? You pick the criteria... Sadly no skiing tonight. Too much schoolwork... I guess 95-96" but I spend a lot of time in NNE so there are seasons that weren't as good here as there. 2000-01 was 107" here but much more North (I think), 2002-03 was 114" here but better North (I think). To be honest, I love every Winter. If the snow isn't good I just leave for snowier places but most New England Winters provide fun and excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Isnt it like 3am in London? lol 1AM Only a five hour time difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Even the oven, BDR at 24/20, with a stiff ne wind basically in the sound. southern ct is going to have one hell of an ice storm later tonight into tom morning, climo has been thrown to the wolves this winter. Looks that way dude, stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Like I told you yesterday, Saturday is your history making day, you bang 8 tomorrow, compaction you go into Sat only needing 4, doable. Not too far from Ray, maybe 8-10 miles northwest. I'm at 30" now and hoping for 8-10 tomorrow. Think it's within reason, but also think Saturday will be my day too. Anyone know if UML keeps snowfall depth tallies for Lowell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 LOL, the piles are ridiculous. Lets just get 4-8 on Saturday to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 That's what I figured. I wonder if Wilmington was any different in Feb '69. Probably not much at all. If anything, maybe a bit less than Reading. Right. Man, this is awsome...I feel like I'm at a ski resort.....just ventured out to the yard stick by the Davis and it reads 30.5".....did a snow angel, walked arund the block and headed in......heaven. There are some shaded spots near 3'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 right...from what I've read...if the snow completely melts into water in the warm layer...it's extremely difficult to refreeze in the cold layer even given a substantial depth. When it partially melts because the warm layer is marginal...it's much easier to freeze into sleet even in a shallow cold layer. Dude, you're freaking me out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 LOL, the piles are ridiculous. Lets just get 4-8 on Saturday to see what happens. What's the latest on the Sat system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I will ice big time, hoping not to lose power for many reasons, but I really cant wait to see this monster be carved up like a cane tracking over hispanolia, its going to go through the NE shredder, just get obliterated. Enjoy the snow up north, pray for us down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Dude, you're freaking me out. sorry lol. I'm trying to talk myself out of 3" of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I am praying, much closer to ice than you and starting to worry. Still snow on pines here. Bad combo Shotgun blasts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Looks that way dude, stay safe. Ginx. Are you thinking the CT shore has a fairly serious ice storm? Sorry for not reading back. Exhausted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Light freezing rain at Cleveland Hopkins also. There must be some really warm temperature at 800mb over there. The SPC mesoscale analysis has 850mb temperatures above 0C there. Ok I'm going to duck after posting this but honest truth...THAT HAPPENED IN JAN 1994! We know the verification for eastern NE. I almost feel like blizzard24 ...2 snows good, 4 rains bad......but it's true...this one will impress further south than you think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I am praying, much closer to ice than you and starting to worry. Still snow on pines here. But when it makes it as far as you, I'm not that far behind.Probably going to be pretty nasty somewhere close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Ray, when is your record high of 40" from? Is it March 2001? Feb and March 1969...March 2001 was about 2'....much more impressive off of the cp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.