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Epic winter signal continues to beam, part VI


ORH_wxman

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Any thoughts on the most likely regions for serious freezing rain?

I still think it's a real difficult call, although we may be haded in the direction of some pretty bad icing...perhaps in the 0.30 to 0.40'' range...right now it seems like a lock that at least interior SW CT (where the Ice storm warnings are) and across central CT just south of HFD stand a decent chance...however, this threat could certainly include Hartford and even some locations further north...going to be a nowcast thing perhaps.

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LOL, you'll do fine. I just don't have the confidence to go gung-ho given the big mid level warm push and already mild temps, but agree the Pike will be the rough battle ground area. Also, I'm not sure we'll see one inch qpf in sne as of now, unless somehow this is a complete mini bomb of qpf.

A couple of things to note.

1) Watch radar over PA and NY State. If this rushes in here as strong echoes, that may increase the odds of more dynamic cooling. If it's slow to occur...the opposite may happen.

2) Mt Tolland may be a good indicator. If he stays snow longer, then that may bode well for the rest of sne.

I'll be up around 4:00 to report in

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I still think it's a real difficult call, although we may be haded in the direction of some pretty bad icing...perhaps in the 0.30 to 0.40'' range...right now it seems like a lock that at least interior SW CT (where the Ice storm warnings are) and across central CT just south of HFD stand a decent chance...however, this threat could certainly include Hartford and even some locations further north...going to be a nowcast thing perhaps.

Hey Paul,

what is considered "bad" icing I guess? What will take down good trees? I think in 2002 we must have had .75-1"...sound right?

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It's amazing the differences in temperatures 5-10 miles north from shore.. For example, Sachems Head in Guilford right now is 28 degrees while North Guiford is at 20.4. Could it be a precursor of where freezing line sets up? if only weather was easy to predict haha.

Right in the middle here...24.3F and steady. Should be interesting to see how things play out tomorrow

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Hey Paul,

what is considered "bad" icing I guess? What will take down good trees? I think in 2002 we must have had .75-1"...sound right?

1/4'' of icing isn't really all that bad but can cause some isolated issues with power outages but once you get above the 0.40'' to 0.50'' threshold that's where issues could start becoming a bit more troublesome, once you start nearing 0.75'' and above that's when you could see some serious issues.

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Last post, 5th of the day, until 7:31 AM tomorrow morning.

SN- continues here and I expect it to continue all night... 6" New

RUC continues to trend colder, like messenger was saying, and continues to hammer S VT, S NH, S ME, and N MA(Where is stays all snow), with the heaviest starting around 9 am tomorrow morning. Also what is interesting is the RUC continues to almost connect the two storms, which might be the light snow almost expanding over the places listed above:

ruc_p01_007l.gif

That little finger of precip should be interesting to watch as we head into the dead zone from about 1045 pm after the GFS into and around 3-5 am when the front edge arrives. If this little finger can develop into something heavier, it could really bump up totals especially in areas where sleet is a problem tomorrow. Other than that, I expect 1-3" per hours snows for 6-8 hours tomorrow per the RUC. Its gonna be wild and fun.

Have a good deadzone until the storm starts....

I'll be lurking....

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1/4'' of icing isn't really all that bad but can cause some isolated issues with power outages but once you get above the 0.40'' to 0.50'' threshold that's where issues could start becoming a bit more troublesome, once you start nearing 0.75'' and above that's when you could see some serious issues.

And once you get up to 1'' or more, it's all over.

I think .5'' is really the threshold from more nuisance ice to limbs/powerlines down ice. In Dec. '08 everything started breaking everywhere once we got a bit over .5'', I think.

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