SC48 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Thanks for checking that. Good man! I still think we book an xtra 6+ but Harv giving me pause.... He's being conservative for now until the midnight models come in. That's a smart move on his part. With all the model waffeling, he wants to make sure he doesn't get backed into a corner like other mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Does Rapid Refresh do a good job with snow/ice/rain? 9am tomorrow. Be a good test of the HRRR. It was okay with the last storm inside of 12 but was a tick too cold at the start. You see how the departing round 1 is trying to form a bridge to round 2. Gangbusters in the wee hours is my call. The snow down vs pl is the question and I still hold with some others that suggest the Pike is the battle gound. No way is this going into S NH. That'll be the key, get the precip in here and let it go to town 4 to 7 here, 5 to 9 or 10 where you are and we all win. Boston was on the 2-4/4-6 line. That seems VERY reasonable to me IMO right at this moment. Gun to head I'd put my area in the coating to 2" range, south shore up to boston 2-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ugh..just checking the latest LSR, 6 roof collapses reported today in the BOX area. 1140 AM HEAVY SNOW WINDHAM 41.70N 72.17W 02/01/2011 U0.0 INCH WINDHAM CT AMATEUR RADIO BARN COLLAPSE ON NORTH ROAD. UNKNOWN IMPACT ON HORSES INSIDE. 1150 AM HEAVY SNOW HOLLISTON 42.20N 71.43W 02/01/2011 U0.0 INCH MIDDLESEX MA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE TOTAL ROOF COLLAPSE REPORTED ON LOWLAND STREET PER FIRE DEPT. ALL PEOPLE ACCOUNTED FOR. 1153 AM HEAVY SNOW EAST LONGMEADOW 42.07N 72.52W 02/01/2011 U0.0 INCH HAMPDEN MA AMATEUR RADIO ROOF COLLAPSE OF LUMBER STORAGE BLDG. ON NORTH MAIN STREET. NO INJURIES. 0128 PM HEAVY SNOW ENFIELD 41.97N 72.57W 02/01/2011 U0.0 INCH HARTFORD CT AMATEUR RADIO ROOF COLLAPSE ON PHOENIX AVE. 0328 PM HEAVY SNOW PAWTUCKET 41.87N 71.37W 02/01/2011 U0.0 INCH PROVIDENCE RI BROADCAST MEDIA PARTIAL ROOF COLLAPSE ON MAIN STREET 0405 PM HEAVY SNOW WOBURN 42.49N 71.16W 02/01/2011 U0.0 INCH MIDDLESEX MA AMATEUR RADIO ROOF COLLAPSE ON DRAGON COURT Only going to get more with the precip tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Checking the soundings in a bit more detail for GFS 18z, it looks like all snow through hr 21 with some really heavy precip and the flip around 24 is right when it's winding down. Perhaps it's dynamics ftw? So even the torchy GFS gives us some good front end snow, good sign imo. Here's the 21z sounding which is 15Z wednesday - 10 am?? Storm really scoots out pretty fast Even at 24Z it's pretty close to isothermal at 0C but it's clearly dried out in the snow zone (Green line for those who don't read these things much is dewpoint) Those are for BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Boston right on the line for sat event also Looks like a good hit for many on 18z GFS - moving towards consensus? Track over or SE of ACK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Those are for BOS? twisterdata rounds off the lat-long. here is the kbos 24hr sounding from the 18z gfs.http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=kbos&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=skewt&ft=h24&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=800x600 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yesterday someone joked that BOS may get more in the 1st round than the 2nd round... Looks like we got 6"+ in the metro region Tues. Still think copious qpf before a mix will produce Wednesday midnight-10am, even if a mix happens by 10am and Messenger wins his dinner. I agree, thinking 6-9" for much of the area with possibly lower right immediately on the coast or at the airport due to warming low level temps. Hoping we get 90% snow before any ugliness. The fact that Phil stayed ZR today has me thinking we stay below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Been out shoveling for the past two hours and thread expanded 8 pages so not sure if it was posted but the 18z GFS sounding is ugly here tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ugh..just checking the latest LSR, 6 roof collapses reported today in the BOX area. 1140 AM HEAVY SNOW WINDHAM 41.70N 72.17W 02/01/2011 U0.0 INCH WINDHAM CT AMATEUR RADIO BARN COLLAPSE ON NORTH ROAD. UNKNOWN IMPACT ON HORSES INSIDE. Only going to get more with the precip tomorrow. Channel 7 interviewed one of the horses. Hoofie said there was a loud bang and then the roof fell on his mane. Hoofie said he had a headache and may have chipped a tooth but most of the other horses were fine aside of Black Beauty which broke free and was last seen running towards the glue factory. I hope the horses are okay, those are one expensive animal to keep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 twisterdata rounds off the lat-long. here is the kbos 24hr sounding from the 18z gfs. http://vortex.plymou...el&size=800x600 Thanks. ASH is somehow isothermal at 24 on the GFS according to Plymouth, unless it's the old run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Latest Illinois Observations http://vortex.plymouth.edu/obs.php?Qstate=IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yesterday someone joked that BOS may get more in the 1st round than the 2nd round... Looks like we got 6"+ in the metro region Tues. Still think copious qpf before a mix will produce Wednesday midnight-10am, even if a mix happens by 10am and Messenger wins his dinner. I'm good with that. Nice dinner and plenty of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Im Thinking of trying to fall asleep by 9pm and get up around 4-5am. Im fine missing some but it should be fun to track. 5-9" is my call here. If we somehow stay snow up till 11am or noon...9"...if it sleets around 8-9 am...5". I'm doing the same I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Harvey's correct. He's the master. What did he say for our BOS-ORH Pike area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Been out shoveling for the past two hours and thread expanded 8 pages so not sure if it was posted but the 18z GFS sounding is ugly here tomorrow The precip is pretty much out of there by then...hence the dry slot above H7 in the sounding. Find the closest 21hr sounding you can to HFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 twisterdata rounds off the lat-long. here is the kbos 24hr sounding from the 18z gfs. http://vortex.plymou...el&size=800x600 Does plymouth have 21hr sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I wonder if some of these 3-6" amounts will make schools think they can open? IDK, its confusing if your not following it. WHDH has a map out for 8-12, but I think its for both events. If it is their only expecting 2-4/5 more. Then NECN has 9 additional and 12-18 additional north of nh border . BOX I noticed is actually pretty bullish, they have 5-11". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wow that's rough...not sure it goes down like that... in reference to the Harvey map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Does plymouth have 21hr sounding? Nope. Not for the GFS...only the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Thanks ursa for posting the Harvey map. Boston and Brookline is clearly in the 4-6 zone and that sounds ok. Looks like south of the city.....like just at the Milton Line it goes lower. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I wonder if some of these 3-6" amounts will make schools think they can open? IDK, its confusing if your not following it. WHDH has a map out for 8-12, but I think its for both events. If it is their only expecting 2-4/5 more. Then NECN has 9 additional and 12-18 additional north of nh border . BOX I noticed is actually pretty bullish, they have 5-11". Well with less amounts, that means ice. More likely to shut down the entire state. There will be an epic amount of closings tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm doing the same I believe Yeah, well see how it goes. Usually I end up waking up every hour and end up with 4-5 hours total the couple times of done that during big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 16/11, Pixie dust. 8.5" new, looks like BOX nailed part 1 here. Box forecast of 8-14" additional by Thursday morning will leave a stellar early Feb base. The skiing is tremendous. Magic Mtn. tomorrow for first tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yep, 18z Wed. GFS is below freezing at all levels here. Well I'll be damned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 BOX going for 5-8" additional, I think they'll be right on with the VV's keeping the column cool until the dry slot hits which rockets the 850s only to have the cool after the low crosses past us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The precip is pretty much out of there by then...hence the dry slot above H7 in the sounding. Find the closest 21hr sounding you can to HFD. Oops...didn't even realize that Went to twisterdata and tried to get a plot as close as I could...the line between ZR and IP is just going to be so fine I doubt we'll really know for sure until the AM...you can see the sfc is warm enough for rain but not sure if I buy that just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wow!! back to light to moderate snow here... look at that band that is forming in SNH, SVT and ENY.. headed right for me.. Dom, maybe we can pick up another 1-2 inches here quick.... if thats the case, I think we'll reach 20" for a total for tomorrow EDIT: Messenger, what are you talking about with you can't measure 7.75" on the next page????? A standard ruler has the .25 line the .5 line and the .75 line in between the single digit inch numbers... 7.75 is realistic.... 7.70 is not however... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 very light freezing slizzle outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Oops...didn't even realize that Went to twisterdata and tried to get a plot as close as I could...the line between ZR and IP is just going to be so fine I doubt we'll really know for sure until the AM...you can see the sfc is warm enough for rain but not sure if I buy that just yet Wouldn't that be mostly rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Weather people in Taunton saw the Euro today and are concerned that it is colder. Only thing giving them hesitation is the GFS 18Z because of its slightly warmer solution for storm #2 but the NAM and EURO say colder solution. Which would you go with? HMMMMMM....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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