dendrite Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 2:04 AM, Cold Miser said: Where do I find the "storm id" number for this storm to submit storm totals? Look up top. The ID for this storm is 101. I assume you found where to enter them in your control panel settings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Looking at the NAM, I'm not sure where BOX is saying 5-9" for additoinal. I guess there's sleet in there somewhere, but I'm not sure where/how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 2:04 AM, SC48 said: Why? Just curoius? It actuall looks fairly good for the Boston Area. Because those warm layers located high up always like to ruin the party. It's going to hit the D-Line right near the Pike, but it's precarious in my area. I didn't see any significant changes to my thinking. Hopefully we get over 6" new, but not so sure. Sticking with 3-5" for here. 5-9" for Ray potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 2:06 AM, DomNH said: Looks like Vince Wilfork sets his azz up on Rt. 2 and pushes. My 700mb temps warm to a saturated -2C in the heart of the "blitz" tomorrow morning. Date: 15 hour Eta valid 15Z WED 2 FEB 11 Station: 43.43,-71.62 Latitude: 43.43 Longitude: -71.62 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 135 SFC 990 216 -8.7 -10.3 88 1.6 -9.1 60 15 265.3 265.5 264.6 270.0 1.76 2 950 531 -11.0 -12.2 91 1.2 -11.3 65 28 266.0 266.2 264.8 270.3 1.57 3 900 948 -8.3 -9.2 93 0.9 -8.5 101 46 273.0 273.3 270.4 278.8 2.11 4 850 1391 -9.5 -10.4 93 0.9 -9.8 126 44 276.2 276.6 272.3 282.0 2.04 5 800 1864 -3.9 -4.2 98 0.3 -4.1 179 41 286.9 287.6 280.0 297.0 3.49 6 750 2375 -2.7 -2.7 100 0.0 -2.7 205 55 293.7 294.4 283.8 306.0 4.19 7 700 2923 -2.6 -2.7 100 0.1 -2.7 221 73 299.6 300.4 286.4 313.0 4.48 8 650 3509 -5.5 -5.6 99 0.1 -5.5 236 76 302.8 303.5 286.9 314.6 3.87 9 600 4132 -10.1 -10.7 95 0.6 -10.4 243 70 304.4 304.9 286.4 313.1 2.81 10 550 4796 -14.5 -15.6 92 1.1 -14.9 238 63 306.9 307.2 286.5 313.5 2.07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 1:59 AM, dendrite said: NAM goes gangbusters up here 12-18hr. Hopefully I hold off the pings. Was hearing earlier that we risk an H7 dryslot. It is generally good though to be just north of the changeover line as get maximum lift is that? I wonder who will get the best deform and ratios. I looked at 18z bufkit and our ratios suck and we only get 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 2:09 AM, moneypitmike said: Looking at the NAM, I'm not sure where BOX is saying 5-9" for additoinal. I guess there's sleet in there somewhere, but I'm not sure where/how much. If we ping, it's after the best stuff is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I think the extent of the threat will also depend on how quickly we changeover as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 2:06 AM, OSUmetstud said: Ryan, you back to thinking significant ice for CT? Not sure yet. Potential is definitely there but with qpf under an inch we will need virtually all of it to fall as zr for big problems. I think pl is likely for at least a little while most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 00z NAM not quite Noyes-ian but a good dump nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 freezing drizzle here now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 2:08 AM, 1985 Polar Bear said: They're talking 2-event total. Note this disclaimer from GYX: EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE TREATED TODAY/S SNOWFALL EVENT AND WEDNESDAY/S AS SEPARATE EVENTS FROM AN ADVISORY/WARNING STANDPOINT...OUR SNOW TOTAL GRAPHIC ON OUR WEB PAGE REFLECTS THE COMBINED TOTAL FOR BOTH DAYS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. That's the old AFD. New one states new map shows Wed storm total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I look at the NAM and bang my head some more, then Go to the NWS and see This - ...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... /O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110203T0600Z/ HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI- WESTERN KENT RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...WEST GREENWICH 800 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. They Must have meant Total. Not for the period that it's written for. But if you just read it, you'd think 8-12 is coming between 1am-10am! HaHa. Not written well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Okay--I'm outta here. Be down around 4:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Funny if you click on Northeastern Methuen near the New Hampshire line, it says 5-9. Then go a few miles west click on Salem, NH, says 8-12. Battle of the WFO's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 2:06 AM, DomNH said: Looks like Vince Wilfork sets his azz up on Rt. 2 and pushes. Don't let the guys obsessing over every 1\10 of a mile change on the NAM and RUC upset you.....these swfes with strong highs play out the same way just about all of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 2:10 AM, dendrite said: My 700mb temps warm to a saturated -2C in the heart of the "blitz" tomorrow morning. I don't go above freezing in the midlevels until 18z, and 90% of the precip is over and done with by then, so it's pretty much meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 2:11 AM, CT Rain said: Not sure yet. Potential is definitely there but with qpf under an inch we will need virtually all of it to fall as zr for big problems. I think pl is likely for at least a little while most places. Yeah how quickly this changeover occurs will be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 2:11 AM, CT Rain said: Not sure yet. Potential is definitely there but with qpf under an inch we will need virtually all of it to fall as zr for big problems. I think pl is likely for at least a little while most places. SW CT looks like just about all ice on the NAM..less percentage most likely as you go NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 2:10 AM, mahk_webstah said: Was hearing earlier that we risk an H7 dryslot. It is generally good though to be just north of the changeover line as get maximum lift is that? I wonder who will get the best deform and ratios. I looked at 18z bufkit and our ratios suck and we only get 10 inches. 700mb temps are warm for a lot of us. Even far NNE. BTV and BML get up to -6C/-7C at H7 too. I'm not liking the ratio potential until we get into hang back precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 2:06 AM, weatherwiz said: And 1-3'' of wet stuff that might try to cling...think it's going to be pretty ugly around parts of the state tomorrow. Some parts of ct have a good chance of at least .25 of ice accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 2:12 AM, MaineJayhawk said: 00z NAM not quite Noyes-ian but a good dump nonetheless. yes more in line with gfs now. if we get 1" QPF snow ratios up here should be 13-15 to 1 so we could get 10-15 close to Matts prediction. lets see what the gfs says in an hour and 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 2:10 AM, CoastalWx said: Because those warm layers located high up always like to ruin the party. It's going to hit the D-Line right near the Pike, but it's precarious in my area. I didn't see any significant changes to my thinking. Hopefully we get over 6" new, but not so sure. Sticking with 3-5" for here. 5-9" for Ray potentially. I like again that you're being very honest with your concerns..big help to all. If I had a gun to my hotdog, I'd forecast 2-4" for Boston proper, 3-6" north, nothing to 2" south just off the NAM and RUC trends. RUC continues to torch more later after the initial CAA. When the NAM had us comfortably in the snow today the RUC had us toasty.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 2:13 AM, DomNH said: I don't go above freezing in the midlevels until 18z, and 90% of the precip is over and done with by then, so it's pretty much meaningless. You come close to dancing with the devil in the pale moon light though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 2:13 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Don't let the guys obsessing over every 1\10 of a mile change on the NAM and RUC upset you.....these swfes with strong highs play out the same way just about all of the time. Yeah, it's going to rip like gangbusters from like 9z to 18z and after that there may be some crap. 10'' here we come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 2:06 AM, Arnold214 said: It's in the announcement at the top of the page. It's 101. Thanks. I thought "101" was just a generic term for discussing storm id's, and not the actual id of this storm (kind of like Algebra 101, etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 2:15 AM, New England Storm said: Some parts of ct have a good chance of at least .25 of ice accumulation. Parts of SW CT will see up to 0.50'' of ice potentially...probably up this way maybe 0.25'' to 0.35''...going to be real close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeVries Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 2:10 AM, CoastalWx said: Because those warm layers located high up always like to ruin the party. It's going to hit the D-Line right near the Pike, but it's precarious in my area. I didn't see any significant changes to my thinking. Hopefully we get over 6" new, but not so sure. Sticking with 3-5" for here. 5-9" for Ray potentially. Hey, 3-5"...just what I was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 2:12 AM, MaineJayhawk said: 00z NAM not quite Noyes-ian but a good dump nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 i think its going to be rapid!! a ton of ice for us and snow changes to sleet in alot of other places On 2/2/2011 at 2:14 AM, weatherwiz said: Yeah how quickly this changeover occurs will be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 2:15 AM, ericnh said: yes more in line with gfs now. if we get 1" QPF snow ratios up here should be 13-15 to 1 so we could get 10-15 close to Matts prediction. lets see what the gfs says in an hour and 15 10:1 for 95% of the QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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