JamieOber Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah, verbatim off of just THIS run, it might be a bit too far east for most on here. We'd get some decent snow, but from what I can see, not much gets west into true CPA. Pick your model and pick your run, lots of variations thus far, I'm sure many more to come. But I think it's a good thing for all of us, even those to the west, that models have come east today, because a trend back westward still seems to make the most sense at some point. Anyone know what the Euro shows for tommorrow's event? Keep in mind this isn't the storm total because what I am looking at cuts off 12Z Fri but here's some numbers: IPT .45 UNV .53 MDT .86 Definitely all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro must not have been too far east for our region this run, Altoona's comin in at about 0.75 and Pittsburgh around 0.4. Harrisburgs 0.8", and this time unlike last night its all snow for them. AVP and IPT look like they're in at least the same amount of QPF but its a 6 hour frame or two outside of the range for my text output. yea same here. Looks cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Thanks guys! Anyone know the qpf output for the storm tommorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Keep in mind this isn't the storm total because what I am looking at cuts off 12Z Fri but here's some numbers: IPT .45 UNV .53 MDT .86 Definitely all snow. these numbers are for tom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Anyone know what the Euro shows for tommorrow's event? qpf around .4" for IPT but mostly wintry mix/some rain... more rain the further south and east you go from there... maybe an inch of snow near end tomorrow night but too warm for anything significant during the day... I really dont agree with the winter weather advisory for near philly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 these numbers are for tom? End of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 qpf around .4" for IPT but mostly wintry mix/some rain... more rain the further south and east you go from there... maybe an inch of snow near end tomorrow night but too warm for anything significant during the day... I really dont agree with the winter weather advisory for near philly... Thnx bud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Keep in mind this isn't the storm total because what I am looking at cuts off 12Z Fri but here's some numbers: IPT .45 UNV .53 MDT .86 Definitely all snow. really, all snow now? edit, never mind. they are for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah...I think you guys are looking goo for the end of the week storm sauss! This Saturday storm is looking like a mess though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah...I think you guys are looking goo for the end of the week storm sauss!This Saturday storm is looking like a mess though thats ok, i'll feel better Sunday with a WIN from the Steelers..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Keep in mind this isn't the storm total because what I am looking at cuts off 12Z Fri but here's some numbers: IPT .45 UNV .53 MDT .86 With fairly high ratios! 850s at-8ºC--10ºC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What moves through on Tuesday will play a major role on how significant the storm the end of next week ends up. 0z GFS and Euro have it "bomb" after it is northeast of us (so we won't see much precip Tuesday) but have it remain strong to help end of week storm move up the coast by providing some blocking/ridging along east coast. 12z GFS has it weaken after it bombs, therefore providing no blocking/east coast ridging and allowing the energy to jet right out to sea. 12z Euro also holds back the southern energy so instead of it being off the east coast 12z Thursday, it is located around Texas at 12z and becomes more of a Thursday night into Friday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 these numbers are for tom? Sorry, man, late week. IPT is .41 for tomorrow but temps are really marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 wow. ok thanks. I will take what i can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 NWS State College has issued a Winter Weather Advisory... NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE- NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING- UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-SCHUYLKILL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RENOVO...PHILIPSBURG...STATE COLLEGE... LAPORTE...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE... DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...POTTSVILLE 247 PM EST FRI FEB 4 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST SATURDAY. I just dont see it as cold enough for ice to accumulate at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 WWA issued for most of the area. Primarily for the freezing rain aspect - up to 0.10" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 NWS State College has issued a Winter Weather Advisory... NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE- NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING- UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-SCHUYLKILL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RENOVO...PHILIPSBURG...STATE COLLEGE... LAPORTE...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE... DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...POTTSVILLE 247 PM EST FRI FEB 4 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST SATURDAY. I just dont see it as cold enough for ice to accumulate at the surface. No problem up here. Easily cold enough at the surface. In fact, we will likely add to the 4-6 inches of solid and treacherous glacier surrounding my house right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 WWA issued for most of the area. Primarily for the freezing rain aspect - up to 0.10" of ice. Correct, we just went under the same. Adv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 No problem up here. Easily cold enough at the surface. In fact, we will likely add to the 4-6 inches of solid and treacherous glacier surrounding my house right now. After looking at HRRR page... it has precip timing much earlier than the other models show... other models not until after sunrise... and this has been pretty accurate past two storms with timing... ill take back what I said... freezing rain possible early morning (edit: I still dont think it will be a big ice event but a little slick in places until 9ish when temps start to warm a little for the day) http://rapidrefresh....+Feb+2011+-+18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 So this tomorrow's storm will not be a big deal? only 1-2 inches of snow mixed with freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 After looking at HRRR page... it has precip timing much earlier than the other models show... other models not until after sunrise... and this has been pretty accurate past two storms with timing... ill take back what I said... freezing rain possible early morning (edit: I still dont think it will be a big ice event but a little slick in places until 9ish when temps start to warm a little for the day) http://rapidrefresh....+Feb+2011+-+18Z cool, another link to add to my weather bookmark folder. Yeah, I think the solar radiation should help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 So this tomorrow's storm will not be a big deal? only 1-2 inches of snow mixed with freezing rain? maybe not even that much for us in our hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks like our next AVP-IPT-UNV 81 west 80 north screwjob big event is setting up nicely on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Sorry I haven't posted much (although I don't add much meterology knowledge anyway!), but I've been swamped the past three days at work and haven't had a chance to follow anything. Tomorrow looks yucky here in Harrisburg, hoping we can get 2" out of the slop somehow. And I won't even think about next week's storm since it'll just make me nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks like our next AVP-IPT-UNV 81 west 80 north screwjob big event is setting up nicely on the models. i dont even see it on the 18z gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 i dont even see it on the 18z gfs? No surprise! I refuse to even look at this model anymore for storms more than 24 hours in advance. It's pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 No surprise! I refuse to even look at this model anymore for storms more than 24 hours in advance. It's pathetic. i agree but i still look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Temps down to 23 degrees here with some nice radiational cooling this eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 LOL...the models are bipolar...as a psych/education major I'm trying to diagnose them the best I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alleghenies-16693 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 20 degrees, DP 14 in Williamsburg at 08:55 PM . This oughta be an interesting morning coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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