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Central PA Start of February


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NWS State College's new ice graphic is a good stab I think with the axis of heaviest ice... With Altoona and State College leading the way with pretty much a whopping 0.7" of ice. They really ramped up ice totals in the northern tier since the warm air near the 850 level has seemed to have more of a free run at the New York border than originally anticipated. This is likely due to the storm ending up being deeper and further NW. Up in Williamsport and/or Lock Haven, and that whole northern region up there should see more sleet mixing in than places further south as the precip gets established and cools the column a bit, hence lower ice totals. But 0.4-0.5 is still a lot of ice... just gonna be ugly. Hopefully we get the Sat event in here and cover up this mess.

Also starting to get concerned about the wind potential once this storm lifts out too. Usually with these ice events the warm sector between the back edge of the precip and the cold front mixes down the warm air aloft with some increased winds and helps melt alot of ice off the trees. However, some places might get above freezing for only a few hours before the temps crash in the afternoon with some high winds coming behind the front. If we end up with these high totals of ice and can't get alot of it off the trees there's going to be some tree and powerline issues for sure.

I'm very concerned about the wind. In 2000 in Texas we had .6 of ice and thr next day had 40 mph winds. Pretty much a 50 square mile area didn't have power for 12 days because of thr destroyed substations.

That map you posted basically terrifies me.

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Wind will be an issue once this cyclone passes. The weight of the glaze will really add to the potential for snapping limbs. As for the sleet observation in SCE, and the snow pellets in Hazelton, I'm now beginning to think that the worst of the FZRN will be in Perry, Mifflin, Juniata, Dauphin, Northumberland, Cumberland, Snyder, Lebanon, northern York Counties...or just south of where the darkest shade of red is on the CTP NWS map.

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I'm very concerned about the wind. In 2000 in Texas we had .6 of ice and thr next day had 40 mph winds. Pretty much a 50 square mile area didn't have power for 12 days because of thr destroyed substations.

That map you posted basically terrifies me.

It doesn't look like the stronger winds will be until tomorrow in the daylight hours.

Still might not be good with all the ice.

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Wind will be an issue once this cyclone passes. The weight of the glaze will really add to the potential for snapping limbs. As for the sleet observation in SCE, and the snow pellets in Hazelton, I'm now beginning to think that the worst of the FZRN will be in Perry, Mifflin, Juniata, Dauphin, Northumberland, Cumberland, Snyder, Lebanon, northern York Counties...or just south of where the darkest shade of red is on the CTP NWS map.

I agree completely. Looking at current temperatures they appear to favor this region with Lebanon County having the coldest surface temperatures. Winds remain out of the east-northeast locking in the cold air, although it does appear temperatures rise a bit with the precipitation as expected. Elevations above 600ft could have serious problems.

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I agree completely. Looking at current temperatures they appear to favor this region with Lebanon County having the coldest surface temperatures. Winds remain out of the east-northeast locking in the cold air, although it does appear temperatures rise a bit with the precipitation as expected. Elevations above 600ft could have serious problems.

I believe you, saus, myself and our neighbors are in serious trouble.

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NWS just put a warning out.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

1042 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST

WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST

WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATION...SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TURNING TO ALL

FREEZING RAIN. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE MAY WARM UP

ENOUGH TO TURN TO PLAIN RAIN BY SUNRISE. BUT THOSE SOUTHERN TIER

AREAS WILL STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE BUILD UP BEFORE

WARMING UP.

* ACCUMULATIONS...LITTLE ADDITIONAL SLEET ACCUMULATIONS.

SIGNIFICANT AND DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE QUARTER

AND ONE HALF INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH THE

HEAVIEST GLAZING LIKELY ACROSS THE RIDGES NEAR AND JUST TO THE

SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET MORE THAN ONE

HALF OF AN INCH OF A THICK...ICY GLAZE.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS

TRAVEL CONDITIONS. POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO LIKELY DUE TO THICK

ACCRETIONS OF FREEZING RAIN ON THE POWER LINES THEMSELVES AND

ALSO ON TREE LIMBS WHICH WOULD BREAK OFF AND COULD PULL DOWN THE

POWER LINES.

* WINDS...EAST TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE VALLEYS...AND

SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH ON THE RIDGES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE

WEST ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN`S IN THE

WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO 15

TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...

SLEET...OR ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS

IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO TAKE AN ALTERNATIVE ROUTE...OR

SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. CARRY EXTRA

SUPPLIES...INCLUDING BLANKETS...FOOD AND A CELLULAR PHONE IN CASE

YOUR CAR BECOMES STRANDED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR

YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST

UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...

WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE.

&&

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Quick question, sense its almost impossible to tell where the sleet/ZR line is on the radar, is there anyway to get a view of where it is and how close its to certain areas, I know observations help locate this setup but Im talking like upper air maps to determine this?

The temperature profiles are so very complex in this particular situation that it is nearly impossible to use modeled maps to determine precip types at the surface. Couple that with the diverse terrain in PA and trying to pinpoint a specific precip type in this synoptic set up is extremely difficult. Surface obs leave no doubt. I like to use the mesoanalysis page from NWS SPC for maps and guidance, however.

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#

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