NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well, we all know about what we could have on our hands come tomorrow. Then maybe something for the weekend. Looks warm right now. Now all this talk about a break from Winter for two weeks afterwords. Let's see where we go, starting tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 temp up to 28 now...dp has also gone from 18 to 21 the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Easterly wind picking up here with visibility increasing. 26.6F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 the next two hours are important....if the majority of the area stays at or below 32...watch out tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 the next two hours are important....if the majority of the area stays at or below 32...watch out tonight... is the 2nd round expected after darK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wow, I don't think I've ever been in ice probabilities this high. I agree with the placement of the highest probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 is the 2nd round expected after darK Yes. Starts sometime around 11PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 is the 2nd round expected after darK yep midnight-7 am should be the majority of precip...very good timing for an ice storm(or bad depending how you look at it ) even temps 30-32 will still be freezing on contact due to no sun radiation melting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 yep midnight-7 am should be the majority of precip...very good timing for an ice storm(or bad depending how you look at it ) even temps 30-32 will still be freezing on contact due to no sun radiation melting it. tonight may be a good night to have a couple then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Someone mentioned brightening in the old thread. VERY bright here at work now. Without looking, I'd swear the sun is out albeit dimly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Someone mentioned brightening in the old thread. VERY bright here at work now. Without looking, I'd swear the sun is out albeit dimly. If you went outside, I'll be you could see it through the cloud deck. That's what happened here last Wednesday, and also during the clipper on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Cloud breaks getting close... ehh sat_19.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Saturday looks pretty good according to the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --LEAD IMPULSE IN THE FORM OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED AND ATTENDANT SSWLY 850 MB JET MAX OF 50 KT WAS LIFTING QUICKLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. VERY COMPLEX THERMAL STRUCTURE WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL PEEN OVER THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS AS THE INTENSIFYING CENTRAL US STORM HEADS OUR WAY. 925MB AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW WILL VEER AROUND THROUGH THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO SOME DRYING AND TEMPS RISING A FEW MORE DEG F TO THE MID 20S /FAR NW/ AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. DYNAMIC SFC LOW PRESSURE AND COUPLED JET WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE LWR/MID MS VLY TNT WITH VERY STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT/DIV ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER OH VLY AND NRN MID ATLC REGION. ANOMALOUS SLY LLJ WILL TRANSPORT DEEP GOMEX MSTR INTO THE SHALLOW COLD SECTOR ASSOC WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRES EXTENDING FM THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO SRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER WINTRY PCPN STARTING AFT 00Z. THE AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE NNE TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 KTS LATE TONIGHT...DRIVING A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOWER WET BULB TEMPS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SRN PENN HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE LLVL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. PRECIP TYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT SHOULD BE STEADY...MODERATE TO HEAVY FZRA. FZRA TOTALS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 0.25 ACRS THE FAR SOUTH...TO AS MUCH AS 0.70" NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY MIX IN SLEET AT TIMES INVOF OF KDUJ...KUNV AND KSEG/KIPT. VERY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE LATEST SREF WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF ACRS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PENN. SFC TEMPS WILL TEETER WITHIN A DEG OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 32F TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...SO WE COULD SEE SOME HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE ICE ACCUM THERE FROM 0.10" IN SOME OF THE WARMER METRO AREAS...TO AROUND 0.50" IN RURAL AREAS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-81. TRIMMED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN BY 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS THE MILDER...SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING LAYER /CENTERED BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB MAKES IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. SO...WE SHOULD SEE INITIALLY A FEW TO SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF MDT TO HVY SNOW TONIGHT FROM KBFD...EAST /WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 6 INCHES/ CHANGING TO MAINLY MDT TO HVY SLEET NEAR THE ROUTE 6 CORRIDOR. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS WITH UP TO A FOOT PSBL ALONG THE NY LINE. SLEET WILL CUT DOWN ON ACCUMS. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT-OFF TO THE SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO ACCUM XPCTD ACRS THE SRN ZONES. MANUAL QPF BLEND AND SREF MEAN THERMAL PROFILES WERE USED TO DETERMINE SNOW AND ICE AMTS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO DEC SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SCENTRAL MTNS.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 If i read the NAM right, it still shows MDT .48 FRZN before temps rise and get plain rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWxJr Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Still only 27 here in the valley! Weww this is going to be an interesting event..I say it doesn't even break 30 here in Carlisle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 26 here in the Chicken City. Just pulled the GF out from a snow bank and guardrail combo. The Focus is f-d up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 23.4...feels like some sleet pellets or freezing drizzle falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 sucks about the car! Still wobbling between 29 & 30 here in E York Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 26 here in the Chicken City. Just pulled the GF out from a snow bank and guardrail combo. The Focus is f-d up. Damn, sorry to hear. I saw a guy in some sort of mini-SUV this am with its nose pointing to the air. They had slid off the road into a ditch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 31 here. Seems to be capping off though going to sit right around 32 probably. Hopefully drop to 29-30 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 sucks about the car! Still wobbling between 29 & 30 here in E York Damn, sorry to hear. I saw a guy in some sort of mini-SUV this am with its nose pointing to the air. They had slid off the road into a ditch. Thanks. What really pisses me off is then they call back and ask if she can still make it in. Never knew bank telling was such an important job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Thanks. What really pisses me off is then they call back and ask if she can still make it in. Never knew bank telling was such an important job. Sure it is. People need to get their cash, for bread, beer, eggs, cigars and milk sorry to hear about your car Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 29.7 here at the moment. Cars in our parking lot just wet though. Enough solar making it through to raise surface temps above freezing. Probably will start to refreeze around 2:30 - 3:00. I'm with maytowninpa on this one in that I think we'll see a fair amount of ice but not crippling in our neck of the woods. Temps too close to freezing means freeze rate won't be that rapid and high rainfall rates won't lend to big accretion either. It's not like 1" of rain = 1" of ice on everything if the temps are below 32. Here's hoping anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 29 here in Harrisburg, hasn't budged in a while. It's bright but the cloud deck looks to be fairly thick, sidewalks are glazed off as are cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 27.2F here in the suburbs along Blue Mountain outside of Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Thanks. For those reporting above freezing temps...don't forget UHI too. Can be a significant drop off once out of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 29.7 here at the moment. Cars in our parking lot just wet though. Enough solar making it through to raise surface temps above freezing. Probably will start to refreeze around 2:30 - 3:00. I'm with maytowninpa on this one in that I think we'll see a fair amount of ice but not crippling in our neck of the woods. Temps too close to freezing means freeze rate won't be that rapid and high rainfall rates won't lend to big accretion either. It's not like 1" of rain = 1" of ice on everything if the temps are below 32. Here's hoping anyway. good point here - heavy rain actually doesn't accumulate as much, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Come on ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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