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NYC Area February 1st-2nd OBS and Discussion


earthlight

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now at 23.8 degrees...if that is accurate there is probably a flash freeze occurring out on the wet roadways right now as it continues to drizzle.

I've always wondered about this. What kind of temps do you need in order to get roads to "flash freeze"? I would imagine it's obviously dependant on a number of factors, including treatment of the roads, sun angle, traffic intensity, etc., but is there a general rule to use?

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That map is stale - "As of Tue Feb 1 at 7am"

I'm a bit puzzled by Upton here they are forecasting 1/4 inch of ice here and they canceled the WSW. I know ice storm warning is .5 inches but why didn't they leave up the WSW that they issued just 7 hours ago? Also they are still saying 4.9 inches of snow here in Manhattan...

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I'm a bit puzzled by Upton here they are forecasting 1/4 inch of ice here and they canceled the WSW. I know ice storm warning is .5 inches but why didn't they leave up the WSW that they issued just 7 hours ago? Also they are still saying 4.9 inches of snow here in Manhattan...

Upton should've went with Ice Storm Warnings for NYC's 5 boroughs as well since the GFS and NAM both outputs between 0.25-0.50" of ice accretion for them; also, temperatures have been dropping way earlier than expected.

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Yes, we're done with snow, aside from perhaps a few renegade flakes at the very beginning of round 2 tonight. Could see up to an inch of sleet in a quick burst, mainly on the North Shore.

The snow accumulation map is old. The zone forecasts don't mention any new snow accumulation, or even snow at all.

Im wondering why they upped the snowfall amounts? Do you think we're done with the snow part of the storm?

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I'm pretty sure sleet counts as snow.

These are the liquid equivalent ratios as well as I remember them:

2:1 sleet

4:1 very wet snow

8:1 wet snow

10:1 to 12:1 typical to somewhat dry snow

15:1 very dry snow

20:1 champagne powder

anything above 20:1 is very rare and the only time I remember seeing it in a big storm was back in Jan 2004 when we had 40:1 ratios.

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still at 33.5 on a NNE wind. I'm just north of Sunrise Hwy. I find it hard to believe it's 24F in Commack

i live about one mile south of the sound in north commack, border of kings park. surrounding stations reporting similar numbers (25.3 northport, 22.4 cold spring harbor) so i doubt it is an error. You live in a classically warmer spot in our micro-climate.

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24F may be a tad low, but there are multiple weather stations in NW Suffolk and NE Nassau that have seen a 4-5F drop in the past hour, down to 25-26F.

East Northport: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNYEASTN8

Centerport: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KXTINYCE2

Kings Park: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNYKINGS9

Woodbury: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=MSWUIKWOD

still at 33.5 on a NNE wind. I'm just north of Sunrise Hwy. I find it hard to believe it's 24F in Commack

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They probably didn't go with an ice storm warning for the city because confidence of reaching 0.5" is not as high in those places. They also avoided the warnings in the highly urbanized areas of NJ. What does that tell you? They feel that the heat generated from the urbanization combined with slighly warmer surface temps will be enough to avoid a severe ice storm. Not to mention, imagine the media frenzy if ice storm warnings were issued for NYC. Not to mention the implications if they didn't verify. An ice storm warning is a severe winter weather warning and should be taken very seriously. We all know it doesn't take much more than a freezing drizzle to cause major problems on the roads.

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i live about one mile south of the sound in north commack, border of kings park. surrounding stations reporting similar numbers (25.3 northport, 22.4 cold spring harbor) so i doubt it is an error. You live in a classically warmer spot in our micro-climate.

I live in the same microclime and am usually several degrees warmer than you. I think that your sensor is off. We reached 33 here earlier, but the wind shifted to the north and it is now down to 28 as of 12:21PM.

Have you tried the sensor calibration that I suggested?

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I live in the same microclime and am usually several degrees warmer than you. I think that your sensor is off. We reached 33 here earlier, but the wind shifted to the north and it is now down to 28 as of 12:21PM.

Have you tried the sensor calibration that I suggested?

Not yet, but cold spring harbor reporting a temp of 22.4, 25.2 in northport, and i did have a high of around 32 degrees earlier today which was consistent at the time with other reports. I will try calibrating it in a little while with the ice water method.

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They probably didn't go with an ice storm warning for the city because confidence of reaching 0.5" is not as high in those places. They also avoided the warnings in the highly urbanized areas of NJ. What does that tell you? They feel that the heat generated from the urbanization combined with slighly warmer surface temps will be enough to avoid a severe ice storm. Not to mention, imagine the media frenzy if ice storm warnings were issued for NYC. Not to mention the implications if they didn't verify. An ice storm warning is a severe winter weather warning and should be taken very seriously. We all know it doesn't take much more than a freezing drizzle to cause major problems on the roads.

Of course not every part of NYC is high urbanized I mean SI/Eastern Queens/Parts of NW Bronx(Riverdale) and areas like Throgs Neck are certainly more like the burbs then Urban. I've been in the burb part of the city during a freezing rain event and it isn't pretty on the sidewalks...

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But there is no snow in the forecast? Does that include sleet? Do they count sleet as snow?

Please excuse the newbie questions.

yes it does but sleet will not accumulate another 8" in the NORTHERN sections to give them the 11" forecasted.. or in southern sections to give 6" forecasted.. I wonder if the server problems are not letting them change this.. as they've known we weren't going to get this much snow since last night... i've been forecasted 2-5" for the CWA since last night excpet 4-8" in extreme north and west sections..

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i live about one mile south of the sound in north commack, border of kings park. surrounding stations reporting similar numbers (25.3 northport, 22.4 cold spring harbor) so i doubt it is an error. You live in a classically warmer spot in our micro-climate.

He doesnt know north shore climo :P I bet places like Miller Place and Mt Sinai are even colder than you-- they are Long Island's cold spots.

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latest surface analysis still shows a 1033 mb high pressure anchored just north of VT. This high has not moved at all during the past 3 hours. In fact it appears to be elongating and merging with the high advancing from the west. Latest still shows pressure rises throughout the upper midwest and great lakes regions advancing ESE. In fact pressure has rissen by 3 mb over MN in the past two hours. This could all be a sign that the high pressure is going to be stronger than forecasted. What effects this will have are yet to be seen but you can clearly see the CAD signiature which is currently taking place.

pchg.gif?1296581083083

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Not yet, but cold spring harbor reporting a temp of 22.4, 25.2 in northport, and i did have a high of around 32 degrees earlier today which was consistent at the time with other reports. I will try calibrating it in a little while with the ice water method.

Our dots on the map are very close...I'm under the red dot that I drew on this map. It has definitely cooled quickly along the north shore. That cooling may make it down across the entire island over time:

post-290-0-38306400-1296581293.jpg

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